The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declined in March

NEW YORK, April 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) declined to 105.72 in March, from an upwardly revised 105.84 in February. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

"Job seekers continue to face a challenging market," said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board. "This is evident in the ETI as several components moderated in March. Overall, the US economy has remained surprisingly resilient, but rising geopolitical uncertainty may contribute to ongoing employer hesitancy to add more workers."

The share of consumers who report "jobs are hard to get"—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey®—climbed to 21.5% in March and reflects a 5-percentage point rise since March 2025. The share of small firms reporting that jobs are 'not able to be filled right now' declined by 1 percentage point in March to reach 32%. The share of involuntary part-time workers rose in March to 16.5%, but that measure declined from 19.4% in December.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 207,800 in March, reflecting a steady decline in jobless claims from the 2025 average of 226,450. Employment in the temporary help services industry rose marginally in March and in three of the last five months. Industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales were also steady in their most recent data releases.

March's decrease in the Employment Trends Index was a result of negative contributions from five of its eight components: the Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, the Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find 'Jobs Hard to Get, Industrial Production, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. Three components contributed positively: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Job Openings, and the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry.

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS) ⴕ
• Job Openings (BLS)**
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)***

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months (due to data release delays)
***Statistical imputation for three most recent months (due to data release delays)
ⴕ Note missing October 2025 value for Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time Workers estimated using linear interpolation

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

SOURCE The Conference Board