The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Decreased in May

NEW YORK, June 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased to 107.01 in May, down from an upwardly revised 107.88 in April. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for payroll employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

"May's payroll employment was strong, rising by 172,000 in the month. However, the ETI, a forward-looking measure for payrolls, ticked down slightly in May with 5 of 8 components contributing negatively to the index, highlighting potential downside risks to the labor market," said Jannik Schulz, Economic Research Associate, The Conference Board. "Nonetheless, the ETI is up 2.1 points compared to six months ago, indicating continued resilience in the labor market."

The primary drag on the ETI in May was the share of small firms reporting that jobs are 'not able to be filled right now', which dropped from 34% in April to 29%, the lowest level since May 2020. While Job Openings increased sharply to above 7.6 million in April, the jump was driven by an idiosyncratic movement in the professional and business service industry, which is not expected to continue. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 214,800 in May, up from a historically low level in the previous month, but still down from one year ago. Real manufacturing and trade sales and Industrial production recorded little change but contributed marginally to the month's decline.

Positive contributions to the ETI included the share of involuntary part-time workers, which fell to 17.4% in May from 17.9% in April. The share of consumers who reported "jobs are hard to get"—an ETI component from the Consumer Confidence Survey®— declined for a second month in a row to 18.6% in May, down from 19.4% in April. Employment in the temporary help services industry rose again, and has been a positive contributor to the ETI all five months thus far in 2026, though the contribution was smaller in magnitude in May.

Contributions listed by magnitude: May's decrease in the ETI was a result of negative contributions from five of its eight components: The Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Job Openings, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Industrial Production. Three components contributed positively: The Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, the Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find 'Jobs Hard to Get', and the Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry.

NOTE: This month's release will incorporate annual revisions of standardization factors to the Employment Trends Index, which bring it up to date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the index. The standardization factors, known as volatility adjustment factors, are done by calculating the standard deviation of the monthly percent change in each component. The updated period used for calculating the standardization factors is November 1973 to December 2025. The standardization factors are then used to construct the index from November 1973 to present. As a result, the revised index, in levels and month-on-month changes, is not directly comparable to those issued prior to this annual revision. For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

• Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey^®)
• Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
• Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
• Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
• Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS) ⴕ
• Job Openings (BLS)*
• Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
• Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months (due to data release delays)
ⴕ Note missing October 2025 value for Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time Workers estimated using linear interpolation

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

SOURCE The Conference Board