The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased Slightly in June

But its Growth Rate has Moderated in the Second Quarter

Jul 09, 2013, 10:00 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, July 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) edged up in June. The index now stands at 111.64, up from 111.59 (a downward revision) in May. The ETI figure for June is 3.8 percent higher than a year ago.

"In the second quarter of 2013, the Employment Trends Index grew more slowly than in the previous two quarters," said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. "Even though employment has been growing faster than expected in recent months, the current slowing of the ETI suggests that acceleration in employment growth is unlikely in the near future."

June's improvement in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from four of its eight components. The increasing indicators — from the largest positive contributor to the smallest — were Industrial Production, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Number of Temporary Employees, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

  • Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
  • Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
  • Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
  • Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
  • Job Openings (BLS)**
  • Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
  • Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website:

 *Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

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