The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased in July

Aug 24, 2015, 22:00 ET from The Conference Board

BEIJING, Aug. 24, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.9 percent in July to 331.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in June and a 1.1 percent increase in May. Total loans issued by financial institutions made the largest positive contribution to the index, followed by the 5000 industry enterprises diffusion index: raw materials supply index, and total floor space started.  The consumer expectations index, The PMI new export orders index, and the (inverted) PMI supplier delivery index declined in July.

"July's gain in the Leading Economic Index for China was driven mainly by bank loans, while consumer sentiment, manufacturing, and exports were all weak," said Jing Sima, senior economist at The Conference Board. "Despite the gain, the increased volatility in the LEI, lack of strength in the real economy, and recent turmoil in China's stock and currency markets suggest that China's economy will be facing increasing downside risks in the months ahead."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.1 percent in July to 278.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in June and a 0.6 percent increase in May. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in July.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2015 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes




2015




6-month


May


Jun


Jul


Jan to Jul










Leading Economic index (LEI)

326.4

p

328.2

p

331.2

p



  Percent Change

1.1

p

0.6

p

0.9

p

5.9


  Diffusion

83.3


66.7


50.0


50.0











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

274.9

p

275.4

p

278.4

p



  Percent Change

0.6

p

0.2

p

1.1

p

4.4


  Diffusion

100.0


80.0


80.0


80.0











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised






Indexes equal 100 in 2004









Source:  The Conference Board               All Rights Reserved




 

SOURCE The Conference Board



RELATED LINKS

http://www.conference-board.org