The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Further in January

NEW YORK, Feb. 20, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December 2023. The LEI contracted by 3.0 percent over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, a smaller decrease than the 4.1 percent decline over the previous six months.

"The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "While the declining LEI continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024). As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead. While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over Q2 and Q3."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2 percent in January 2024 to 112.1 (2016=100), after a 0.2 percent increase in December 2023. The CEI expanded by 1.0 percent in the six-month period ending January 2024, down from a 0.8 percent growth rate over the previous six months. The CEI's component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Three out of four components of the index were positive in January, with payroll employment and personal income less transfer payments having the strongest contributions, followed by a much smaller positive contribution from manufacturing and trade sales.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. rose by 0.4 percent in January 2024 to 118.6 (2016 = 100), reversing a decline of 0.4 percent in December 2023. The LAG is up by 0.9 percent over the six-month period from July to January 2024, following a decline of 0.1 percent over the previous six months.

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, March 21, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or "leads") turning points in the business cycle by around 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include: Average weekly hours in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials; ISM^® Index of New Orders; Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders; Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500^® Index of Stock Prices; Leading Credit Index^™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org

SOURCE The Conference Board