The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Again

Economic Outlook Continues on a Moderate Growth Path

Jul 23, 2015, 10:00 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, July 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in June to 123.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in May, and a 0.6 percent increase in April.

"The upward trend in the US LEI seems to be gaining more momentum with another large increase in June pointing to continued strength in the economic outlook for the remainder of the year," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director, Business Cycles and Growth Research, at The Conference Board. "Housing permits and the interest rate spread drove the latest gain in the LEI, while labor market indicators such as average workweek and initial claims remained unchanged."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in June to 112.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in May, and a 0.3 percent increase in April.  

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.7 percent in June to 117.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in May, and a 0.2 percent increase in April.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2015


6-month


Apr


May


Jun


Dec to Jun



















Leading Index

121.9

r

122.9

r

123.6

p



  Percent Change

0.6

r

0.8

r

0.6


2.1


  Diffusion

75.0


80.0


75.0


60.0











Coincident Index

112.1

r

112.3

r

112.5

p



  Percent Change

0.3

r

0.2

r

0.2


0.9


  Diffusion

75.0


75.0


100.0


75.0











Lagging Index

116.7

r

116.8

r

117.6

p



  Percent Change

0.2


0.1

r

0.7


2.3


  Diffusion

50.0


42.9


71.4


92.9











p  Preliminary     r  Revised









Indexes equal 100 in 2010









Source:  The Conference Board








 

SOURCE The Conference Board



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