The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increases

Index Points to Slow Growth Through Early 2011

Oct 21, 2010, 10:00 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Oct. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in September to 110.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.2 percent increase in July.    

Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: "The LEI remains on a general upward trend, but it is growing at its slowest pace since the middle of 2009. There isn't any indication of a relapse into another downturn through the end of the year."

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: "More than a year after the recession officially ended, the economy is slow and has no forward momentum. The LEI suggests little change in economic conditions through the holidays or the early months of 2011."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in September, remaining at 101.4 (2004 = 100), following no change in August and a 0.1 percent increase in July. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) increased 0.4 percent in September to 108.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in August, and a 0.4 percent increase in July.  

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.


 
 

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

 

 
 

Average weekly hours, manufacturing

 

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance

 

Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials

 

Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance

 

Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods

 

Building permits, new private housing units

 

Stock prices, 500 common stocks

 

Money supply, M2

 

Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds

 

Index of consumer expectations

 

 
 
 


 

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm


 

 

 

 

 
 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

2010

6 month

 

 

Jul

Aug

Sep

Mar to Sep

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

Leading index

110.0 r

110.1 r

110.4 p


 
 

  Percent Change

.2 r

.1 r

.3 p

0.8

 

  Diffusion

50.0

65.0

55.0

40.0

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

Coincident Index

101.4 r

101.4 p

101.4 p


 
 

  Percent Change

.1

.0 p

.0 p

0.9

 

  Diffusion

62.5

75.0

50.0

100.0

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

Lagging Index

107.9 p

108.0 p

108.4 p


 
 

  Percent Change

.4 p

.1 p

.4 p

0.6

 

  Diffusion

64.3

42.9

57.1

64.3

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

n.a. Not available           p Preliminary             r Revised

 

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

 

Source: The Conference Board

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
         


 

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

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