The Future of 4G Technologies: New Opportunities and Changing Business Models for the Emergence of LTE and WiMAX
NEW YORK, Nov. 8, 2010 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:
Technological innovation, including 3G, improved smartphones and multiplay mobile Internet devices (MIDs), has led to a boom in data usage with data traffic surpassing voice traffic for the first time in December 2009. Having nearly trebled in 2008 and 2009, global mobile data traffic is expected to double every year until at least 2013.
The wealth of content and mobile applications available to users worldwide puts a strain on mobile networks. Next generation technologies like pre-4G and 4G with their promise of greater speed and spectral efficiency become all the more appealing to the players involved in the ICT value chain. However, the reality is that 80% of mobile connections are still on 2G networks and 3G connections are only available in some areas, even in developed countries, with the exception of a few leading countries.
The 4G proposition sounds very promising but its success will ultimately depend on the availability of new spectrum and wide coverage. The many benefits of 4G may also be wasted unless ICT companies find business models that will not only drive adoption but will also help them to increase revenue.
Key features of this report
• Overview of the market trends, technological and regulatory changes that are shaping the adoption of 4G.
• Identification of the main features of IMT-Advanced and of the principle 4G technology candidates.
• Comparison of the LTE and WiMAX technology families and their respective interest for ICT players.
• Examination of current pre-4G deployments.
• Analysis of the threats and opportunities posed by 4G.
Scope of this report
• Review the current technologies, regulatory factors and industry support impacting the adoption of 4G technologies.
• Identify key changes in consumer usage behavior that drive the need for the greater speed and spectral efficiency afforded by 4G.
• Understand how legacy technologies will influence vendors' choice of 4G protocol due to the economic and technical implications of deploying each technology.
• Identify the technology family best suited to a chosen 4G strategy based on each technology's characteristics and individual corporate circumstances.
• Identify the various initiatives in support of each technology candidate in order to revise considered strategies if necessary.
Key Market Issues
• Mobile penetration keeps growing worldwide. More consumers have access to mobile broadband and applications that require large amounts of bandwidth. This new trend creates connection issues and network congestion while posing network management and profitability issues for network operators.
• Technological advances such as the wider availability of 3G and innovation made in smartphones and other Internet-enabled devices have encouraged consumers to use their mobile devices more in the way they typically use their computers, accessing an increasing amount of data. By widening their range of user equipment, handset and PC manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung have increased consumers' expectations of a truly mobile computer environment. The experience of services such as mobile video, TV, and VoIP are becoming more comparable to those provided by a fixed PC environment.
• The great majority of mobile users are still on 2G networks that do not support the rich communication services users are increasingly expecting from their networks. Even the experience of those users on 3G networks is restrained by the technology's limitations. As data traffic increases in volume, network operators are confronted with the threat of traffic congestion and diminishing revenue. They need to find a way to not only meet their customers' needs but also ensure their profitability, which impacts their relationship with other vendors in the ICT value chain.
Key findings from this report
• Consumers are generating increasingly high volumes of mobile data traffic due to their adoption of more advanced devices. Smartphones and mobile Internet devices contribute to the growing popularity of bandwidth-intensive applications such as mobile video but also peer-to-peer and social networking. This puts pressure on networks and leads to congestion and poorer consumer experience.
• 2G still accounts for the great majority of mobile connections worldwide but increasingly high pockets of data traffic in some markets, combined with changing user needs, are rendering current mobile technologies inadequate to meet demand satisfactorily. Although 3G is responding to rising consumer data usage, a more efficient technology is required to not only meet consumer needs but also enhance user experience while ensuring profitability for ICT companies.
• Industry and consumers alike are keen to take mobile communications to the next level and there is strong interest in pre-4G technologies such as Mobile WiMAX and LTE that can increase data rates and capacity dramatically. Both technologies are marketed as 4G despite not meeting the IMT Advanced requirements. While Mobile WiMAX is already available in some markets, deployment of LTE is only just starting, pushing back the date when true 4G will be widely available commercially.
Key questions answered
• What are the major trends and drivers behind the adoption of 4G?
• What are the main 4G protocols and what is their appeal?
• What technologies, products and services will influence the successful rollout of 4G?
• Who are the major players in the 4G market and how do they position themselves?
• What are the main threats posed by the deployment of 4G and how can companies protect themselves?
Table of Contents
The Future of 4G Technologies
Executive summary 14
Competitive landscape 14
LTE and WiMAX 15
Technology deployments 15
Leading player strategies 17
The future of 4G technologies 18
Chapter 1 Introduction 20
Introduction 20
Who is this report for and what is it about? 21
Definitions 22
Evolved Packet Core (EPC) (ex. System Architecture Evolution – SAE) 22
E-reader 22
GSM 22
IMT-Advanced (4G) 22
LTE 22
LTE Advanced 22
Mobile broadband 23
Mobile Internet 23
Mobile Internet device (MID) 23
Mobile WiMAX 23
Notebook 23
Netbook 23
Peer-to-Peer (P2P) 23
Portable media player (PMP) 24
Portable navigation device (PND) 24
Radio access network (RAN) 24
Radio interface technology (RIT) 24
Smartphone 24
Set of radio interface technologies (SRIT) 24
Tablet PC 24
Ultra mobile PC (UMPC) 25
Wi-Fi 25
WiMAX 25
WiMAX 2 (WiMAX Release 2) 25
Chapter 2 Competitive landscape 28
Summary 28
Introduction 29
Impact of legacy technologies 29
Impact of 2G technologies 29
2G technologies have limited data capacity 29
2G will remain the dominant technology until 2012 30
Impact of 3G and pre-4G technologies 32
3G technologies cannot cope with major changes in mobile services usage 32
Long Term Evolution (LTE) provides a temporary solution 33
Support for LTE translates into support for LTE Advanced 34
Mobile WiMAX offers an acceptable interim solution 34
Support for Mobile WiMAX translates into support for WiMAX 2 35
Legacy technologies will dictate the roadmap to 4G 35
Key trends and drivers 37
Mobile Internet fuels demand for faster service delivery 37
Mobile broadband substitution compounds network congestion 38
Increased mobile Internet usage also impacts devices and applications 39
Data traffic is skyrocketing 40
Current technologies are under mounting pressure 46
Industry support and regulatory factors will influence the adoption of 4G 48
Strong commitment from vendors to LTE will speed up 4G adoption 48
The LTE ecosystem is developing 49
The EU supports next generation networks and LTE 50
WiMAX also benefits from its own support group 51
The ITU IMT-Advanced standard and 4G technology candidates 52
3GPP and 3GPP2 standards 57
UMB 57
LTE Release 10 and beyond (LTE-Advanced) 58
IEEE standards 59
IEEE 802.16m (WiMAX 2 / WiMAX release 2) 59
The countdown to 4G has started but deployment may be delayed 60
The ICT landscape changes as competition intensifies 60
Chapter 3 LTE and WiMAX 64
Summary 64
Introduction 64
Note on technology definitions 65
Industry and regulatory bodies rally around 4G 65
LTE Release 10 and beyond (LTE Advanced) supporters 65
3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) 65
LTE/SAE Trial Initiative (LTSI) 66
Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) 66
The One Voice Initiative 67
GSM Association (GSMA) 67
Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance (NGMN) 67
IEEE 802.16m supporters 68
WiMAX Forum 68
WiMAX 2 Collaboration Initiative (WCI) 68
The WiMAX Open Retail Initiative 69
M Taiwan 69
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 70
Key features of LTE and WiMAX 71
Performance and capacity 71
Speed 71
Spectral efficiency and latency 71
VoIP capacity 72
Backward compatibility 73
Ubiquity and coverage 73
Ecosystem 75
WiMAX 75
LTE 77
Applications 78
WiMAX strives to reproduce a full computing environment 78
LTE Advanced will support the same applications as WiMAX 2 78
Economic factors 79
WIMAX 79
LTE 80
Summary: LTE and WiMAX share many similarities 81
Chapter 4 Technology deployments 84
Summary 84
Introduction 84
Regulations and policies can impact 4G adoption 85
EU regulations drive 4G development but favor LTE 85
The EU welcomes next generation networks (NGN) 85
The EU backs LTE and LTE Advanced 86
Beyond Next-Generation Mobile Broadband (BuNGee) 87
Spectrum issues could jeopardize 4G 88
Spectrum allocations will impact operators and manufacturers 88
WiMAX 88
LTE 89
Allocation of the digital dividend would benefit 4G 90
The spectrum (re)allocation process is under way 90
Europe: 90
Middle East: Bahrain frees up spectrum for LTE 91
Africa is allocating the 790-862 MHz band to mobile broadband 91
Central & Latin America (CALA): Mexico may open up the
700MHz band 91
Asia-Pacific 91
4G deployments in the world 93
WiMAX has a head start on LTE but lower coverage 94
Mobile WiMAX 94
WiMAX 2 98
Current WiMAX deployments 99
Asia-Pacific 99
Western Europe 100
Eastern Europe and Russia 100
Middle East 101
Africa 101
USA 102
Central & Latin America 102
LTE and LTE Advanced deployments 102
The first phase of LTE deployment will occur in 2010-2011 102
What is in the pipeline? 108
WiMAX Forum is gearing up efforts to finalize WiMAX 2 108
WiMAX 2 should be commercially available on a larger scale in 2011-2012 108
The deployment of LTE Advanced will be delayed by LTE 109
Chapter 5 Leading player strategies 112
Summary 112
Introduction 113
Samsung Electronics 113
Samsung wants to be an innovator and leader 113
Samsung's 4G strategy is user- and device-focused 114
Samsung targets the smartphone segment 114
The Smart life content plan will help boost smartphone sales 114
Samsung ventures into software territory 115
Samsung launches its own app store 115
Samsung embarks on an open mobile OS strategy 115
The success of Samsung's 4G strategy relies partly on the success of its Bada OS 116
4G technologies: Samsung wants the best of both worlds 116
Samsung is a step ahead with its LTE product offering 116
Samsung's WiMAX involvement and strategy 117
Samsung is a leader and innovator in mobile WiMAX 117
Samsung leads the way to WiMAX 2 (802.16m) 118
Samsung's WiMAX range of devices is also versatile 118
Samsung targets Asia and the Middle East for its WiMAX development 118
LG Electronics 119
LG changes strategic direction and forms new partnerships 119
LG steps up efforts to become a reference in the smartphone segment 120
LG is seeking technology independence to secure its position as LTE market driver 121
LG's 4G strategy focuses on LTE 121
LG is gearing up towards producing an LTE capable handset 121
Innovation and leadership will consolidate LG's place in the 4G market 122
LG wants to capitalize on its LTE track record 122
Motorola 123
Smartphones will drive growth in the handset market 123
Applications will help Motorola meet its smartphone strategic targets 124
Motorola is involved in both LTE and WiMAX while remaining a key player
in previous technology generations 124
Motorola raises its 4G profile 124
Motorola is a leader in WiMAX 124
Motorola aims for a larger share of the LTE market 125
Motorola's LTE contracts increase 125
Motorola intensifies its LTE efforts and extends its product range 126
Motorola targets emerging markets to drive growth 127
Motorola expands its 4G wireless strategy into the consumer electronics market 127
Motorola will start embedding proprietary technology in third-party
CE devices 128
Motorola still believes strongly in WiMAX 129
Motorola supports WiMAX 2 129
Motorola deploys its WiMAX technology in Asia 129
Motorola is extending its WiMAX portfolio 130
Apple 131
Apple delays its entry into the 4G market 131
The iPhone 4's features offer better support for rich media communications 132
Apple's edge in the MID segment is confirmed 133
Apple offers multifunction devices with one predominant use 133
Changes to the iPhone's operating system makes the iPhone more 4G compliant 134
Apple's dominance of the apps market in all form factors continues 134
Apple wants a share of the mobile advertising market 135
Vendor summary – Samsung, LG, Motorola, Apple 136
Zain Group 137
The departure of Zain's CEO derails Zain's development plans 137
Zain's expansion is put on hold and its African assets are sold off 138
Zain brings next generation mobile technology to emerging markets 138
Zain will be launching LTE in the Middle East first 139
Zain chooses LTE to assert its position as a global player 140
Zain is also investing in WiMAX technology 140
Clearwire 141
Clearwire opts for aggressive and fast deployment across the US 141
Clearwire looks set to switch allegiance from WiMAX to LTE 141
Clearwire may enter an agreement with T-Mobile to create an MVNO 142
Clearwire opens up the ecosystem with its "best-of-breed" strategy 142
Clearwire's gamble has paid off so far 143
ZTE 145
ZTE aims for continued rapid growth 145
ZTE goes from late entrant to innovator 146
ZTE's High Performance Product Development program increases its competitiveness 146
ZTE is ready for 4G 146
ZTE has a double 4G offering 147
ZTE targets the US for 4G deployment 148
ZTE claims to have found the killer service: interoperability testing 148
ZTE is keen to increase investments in LTE 149
ZTE makes a bid for technology independence 149
ZTE pursues an aggressive internationalization strategy 150
ZTE will raise awareness of its brand in the terminal segment 150
Vendor summary – Clearwire, ZTE, Zain 152
Chapter 6 The future of 4G technologies 154
Summary 154
Introduction 154
LTE and WiMAX both have their place in the 4G family 155
Leading players and organizations will influence the choice of 4G technology 155
The choice of technology depends on the business model 156
All roadmaps lead to 4G 156
The GSM and CDMA roadmap 156
The WiMAX roadmap 158
LTE and WiMAX are not mutually exclusive 160
The deployment of 4G will change the ICT market 162
Impact on networks 163
Impact on the ecosystem 163
Devices will become multimode 163
Ultra mobile device adoption will increase 164
CE devices will turn into mobile Internet devices 165
Impact on content 168
Increased data usage could raise copyright issues 168
Impact on applications and services 168
4G will accelerate three-screen convergence 169
Adaptability and personalization will be the key words 169
4G will enhance the gaming experience 170
Location-based services (LBS) will drive network traffic up 170
In Africa, mobile entertainment will drive growth 170
Mobile VoIP will take off once 4G is fully deployed 170
Impact on user experience 171
Mobile cloud computing will become more of a reality 171
The new ICT competitive environment 172
Technology convergence is still ongoing 172
Impact on business models 173
Prepaid model 174
Usage-based model 174
Companies mentioned
Apple, Clearwire, LG, Motorola, Samsung, Zain, ZTE, Companies mentioned Application-specific 174
Time-based 175
Time of day model 175
Location-based model 175
Funded by mobile advertising or mobile commerce 175
Who stands to gain and who stands to lose from 4G technologies? 177
Consumers 177
Network operators 178
Network equipment vendors 178
Device manufacturers/consumer electronics manufacturers 179
Software vendors 179
Index 181
List of Figures
Figure 2.1: Global mobile subscribers by technology generation (bn), 2009-14 31
Figure 2.2: Global Internet* subscribers (m), 2008-2012 38
Figure 2.3: Global mobile data traffic (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 40
Figure 2.4: Mobile data traffic by region (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 41
Figure 2.5: Mobile data traffic by device type (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 43
Figure 2.6: Mobile data traffic by application (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 45
Figure 2.7: 4G drivers 46
Figure 2.8: Progression towards IMT-Advanced 53
Figure 2.9: IMT-Advanced candidate technology submissions 54
Figure 2.10: Steps in 4G radio interface development process 55
Figure 2.11: Critical milestones in the 4G radio interface development process 56
Figure 3.12: LTE vs. WiMAX 81
Figure 4.13: Top 5 4G markets (% share of global 4G subscriptions), 2014 93
Figure 4.14: Global WiMAX technology adoption by subscriber coverage (%), 2009 94
Figure 4.15: Regional mobile WiMAX subscriptions (m), 2009-15 96
Figure 4.16: EMEA mobile WiMAX subscriptions (m), 2009-15 97
Figure 4.17: Global LTE subscriptions (m), 2012-2015 107
Figure 5.18: Vendor summary - Samsung, LG, Motorola, Apple 136
Figure 5.19: Vendor summary - Clearwire, ZTE, Zain 152
Figure 6.20: LTE and WiMAX - competitive positioning 160
Figure 6.21: The impact of 4G 163
Figure 6.22: Global user device shipments (m) 2009-13 165
Figure 6.23: Penetration of devices classified as MIDs (% of total devices), 2012 167
Figure 6.24: New pricing business models 176
Figure 6.25: Positives and negatives for stakeholders in 4G technologies 177
List of Tables
Table 2.1: Global mobile subscribers by technology generation (bn), 2009-14 31
Table 2.2: Global Internet* subscribers (m), 2008-2012 38
Table 2.3: Global mobile data traffic (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 41
Table 2.4: Mobile data traffic by region (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 42
Table 2.5: Mobile data traffic by device type (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 44
Table 2.6: Mobile data traffic by application (Terabytes/month), 2009-14 45
Table 2.7: LTE ecosystem, 2010 50
Table 2.8: Key features of 3G and 4G 52
Table 2.9: Key features of LTE Advanced 59
Table 3.10: WiMAX coverage by region, 2009 74
Table 4.11: Top 5 4G markets (% share of global 4G subscriptions), 2014 94
Table 4.12: Global WiMAX technology adoption by subscriber coverage (%), 2009 95
Table 4.13: 38 LTE networks commitments, 7 April 2010 104
Table 4.14: 25 LTE networks commitments, 7 April 2010 - Launch date to be confirmed 105
Table 4.15: LTE trials (pre-commitment stage) 106
Table 4.16: Global LTE subscriptions (m), 2012-2015 107
Table 6.17: Global user device shipments 2009-13 165
Table 6.18: Penetration of devices classified as MIDs (% of total devices), 2012 167
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