NEW YORK, Jan. 26, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- StatPlan Energy published Edition 2 of its successful global analysis of transformer markets in July 2014. Substantially expanded since the previous edition as much more data has become available to us, and supported by an optional database with annual forecasts to 2020, this is a comprehensive analysis of global markets, their size, growth prospects, breakdown by transformer type and issues facing the industry.
Central to our forecasting is the nature of future markets and the importance of the replacement sector for market growth. This market segment will soon account for more than half of the entire market. But to understand when plant is to be replaced, it is essential to understand when plant was installed, the useful life of the equipment and how replacement is managed. StatPlan's databases that underlie all of our reports cover this ground and allows us to report at a level of detail we believe is unmatched elsewhere.
Note on Forecasting Methodology
StatPlan has reviewed hundreds of data sources from around the world and assembled databases for each year and every country from 1900 to the present day. This historical record is, we believe, unique. It is also critical to understanding the increasingly important replacement market.
At a global level, the replacement of existing transformers will soon be a larger part of the market than the new installation segment. In many parts of the world, it already is the greater part of the market.
Therefore, understanding not just the installed base, but also when it was installed and then factoring in design life and likely replacement phases is essential to forecasting the market. Just because energy demand growth is linear, that does not mean that demand for plant and equipment is similarly linear. In fact, it is cyclical.
We also take account of other determinants of demand, often overlooked by other forecasters, including:
- Demographic change (in some major markets population is declining—we look at the long term impact
- Electrification—developing markets are steadily increasing penetration of electrification, having a direct impact on distribution in particular.
- Governmental interventions, particularly with regard to renewables.
Independent assessments, examining actual historical trends against our historical pattern are regularly proving the robustness of this approach.
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