The Type 2 Diabetes Market Will Nearly Double, Increasing from $27 Billion in 2012 to $47 Billion in 2022

DPP-IV Inhibitors Will Maintain Their Position as the Leading Drug Class Through 2022 Despite the Market Entry of Generics, According to a New Report from Decision Resources

Oct 16, 2013, 09:00 ET from Decision Resources

BURLINGTON, Mass., Oct. 16, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the type 2 diabetes market will nearly double over the next decade, increasing from $27 billion in sales in 2012 to $47 billion in 2022 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. The main factors fueling this growth are a continued increase in the drug-treated patient population and increased use of both currently available drugs and soon-to-launch emerging branded agents during this period.

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The Pharmacor advisory service entitled Type 2 Diabetes finds that the market-leading dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-IV) inhibitor drug class, led by Merck's first-in-class sitagliptin (Januvia), will continue to increase its market leading position with increasing use in the second-line setting. Sales of the DPP-IV inhibitors will peak at almost $14 billion before the first generic entrant of the class (saxagliptin) in 2021. Generic entry of sitagliptin in 2022 will lead to significant sales erosion of the DPP-IV inhibitor class, but not enough to threaten their market-leading position through 2022.

The report also finds that the SGLT-2 inhibitors will be the fastest-growing drug class throughout the forecast period, largely driven by strong uptake of Johnson & Johnson's Invokana and AstraZeneca/Bristol-Myers Squibb's Forxiga. 

"The SGLT-2 inhibitors have experienced stronger than expected uptake, particularly in the U.S. following Invokana's launch," said Decision Resources Analyst Eamonn O'Connor, Ph.D. "Interviewed experts are enthusiastic about the drug's unique mechanism of action and additional weight loss mechanisms."

The findings also reveal that the large number of anticipated emerging branded agents creates difficulties for companies to distinguish themselves from first- and second-in-class agents. Attempts to distinguish novel agents include promising fixed-dose combination therapies such as DPP-IV/SGLT-2 inhibitors and long-acting insulin/GLP-1 receptor agonist combinations. Emergence of these branded combinations which offer increased efficacy and convenience will also contribute to overall growth of the type 2 diabetes market.

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