Trends & Prospects for Emerging Space Programs analyzes the development of Emerging Space Programs (ESPs) around the world. The report identifies existing and potential new entrants in space, analyzes global trends related to ESPs, benchmarks their strategies of investment, and analyzes the various issues faced by these new players and their partners/suppliers for the implementation of their programs.
Highlights of the report:
24 countries are identified as emerging space programs (ESPs) in 2015 having launched a total of 69 satellites in the last 20 years. As satellite technology has become more accessible and affordable, the number of countries investing in their first satellite system has increased dramatically. 2015 set an all-time record with nine satellites launched, confirming the dynamism of this market.
By 2025, it is estimated that the number of emerging space programs will increase to 47 countries around the world. This includes 23 newcomers who will have committed their first investment in space between 2016 and 2025. 131 satellites are forecasted to be launched in the next 10 years, nearly double that of the last decade. The total value of these satellites is estimated at nearly $12 billion, versus more than $5 billion during 2006-2015.
This edition has developed a new index which aims to model the probability for a new country to invest in a satellite system. The ESP Index is based on a three part process consisting of data gathering, analysis, and ranking of 148 countries. The index is based on factors deemed to be relevant to evaluating the start of a space program. The relevance of the ESP Index was verified with a "reality check" by reviewing the score of countries that have already launched or ordered a satellite.
Another innovative feature of the report is a targeted survey completed with a selection of countries, part of the 24 countries identified as "already active" ESPs. The questionnaire was aimed to collect primary information on the countries' experience in implementing a satellite program, their strategy, benefits and lessons learned. The survey results, along with the collection of public information and our own expert knowledge, are combined to establish a benchmark of emerging space programs.
Countries considered as Emerging Space Programs (ESPs) include all countries having launched their first satellite (>50 kg) after 1996, i.e. within the last two decades. Countries having launched satellites before that year are therefore not considered as ESPs and are not in the scope of this report.
Analysis, data and estimates rely on two complementary approaches:
- In-depth research and data collection on all countries in the scope of the study including official reports, press releases, news articles and industry white papers. Further, we relied on our continuous research on the satellite sector and government programs.
- Survey of a selection of countries on the basis of a questionnaire with detailed information collected on their programs, strategy pursued and lessons learned.
Finally, a dedicated index covering 148 countries has been developed to measure the likelihood for a new country to invest in a satellite system. The ESP Index models multiple metrics and can be used as a tool to monitor opportunities worldwide.