TrimTabs Real-Time Indicators Show U.S. Economy on Road to Recovery

SAUSALITO, Calif., March 11 /PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. economy is on the road to recovery, according to the latest real-time economic data compiled by TrimTabs Investment Research.

"This rebound seems to be the real deal," said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs.  "The key indicators we track suggest the economy will keep expanding over the near term."

TrimTabs explained that wages and salaries are up 3% year-over-year based on income and employment tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. workers.  Also, online job postings, one of the most sensitive employment indicators, are up 9% year-over-year and 18% year-to-date.

"The economy is performing much better than we realized just a few weeks ago," said Biderman.  "The benchmark revisions released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in February revealed that we underestimated the size of COBRA health insurance reimbursements and thus growth in wages and salaries.  These types of changes would not be an issue if the Treasury would simply report actual wages and salaries, which it already receives each day as part of withholding tax collections."

Biderman attributes the economic rebound mostly to low interest rates and government stimulus.  While TrimTabs estimates that the economy lost 30,000 jobs in February, the firm expects employment to expand in March as the government hires more temporary workers to complete the census.

In a research note, TrimTabs argued that the greatest risk to the economy is higher interest rates triggering a blow-up in the bond market.  Retail investors are pumping a record $1.5 billion daily into bond funds, enabling governments and companies to issue huge amounts of debt.

"Right now, investors starved for yield are eager to lend money at historically low rates," noted Biderman.  "If and when investors demand higher rates in response to accelerating economic growth or deteriorating sovereign creditworthiness, the consequences could be ugly."

TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections.  Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990.  For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.

SOURCE TrimTabs Investment Research