TrueCar Forecasts Fifth Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales Across the Industry for September 2021
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Sept. 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,007,396 units in September 2021, down 25% from a year ago and down 8% vs. August 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 12.2 million, down 25% from September 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 899,072 units, down 26% from a year ago and down 8% from August 2021.
"We are starting to see things settle into an equilibrium from a day's supply standpoint. While new vehicle inventory continues to decline, we're also seeing sales drop at a similar rate," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "But low sales do not equate to low demand. Paired with strong demand, low supply continues the trend we have seen since January of declining incentives and higher prices."
"As the industry continues facing chip shortages, it's no surprise that most OEMs are seeing a decline in sales. GM in particular is showing its lowest sales since the start of Covid-19," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.
Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):
- Total sales for September 2021 are expected to be down 25% from a year ago and down 8% from August 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for September 2021 are expected to be down 19% from a year ago and down 5% from August 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Incentive spend is down 42% from last year.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 8% from a year ago and up 2.5% from August 2021.
- Total SAAR is expected to be down 25% from a year ago at 12.2 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for September 2021 are expected to reach 3.6 million, up 3% from a year ago and down 2% from August 2021.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.3%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for September 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.
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Manufacturer | Sep 2021 Forecast | Sep 2020 Actual | Aug 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 29,676 | 31,031 | 27,602 | -4.4% | -4.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
Daimler | 16,109 | 22,052 | 20,351 | -27.0% | -27.0% | -20.8% | -20.8% |
Ford | 145,793 | 189,375 | 123,343 | -23.0% | -23.0% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
GM | 109,203 | 238,542 | 134,407 | -54.2% | -54.2% | -18.8% | -18.8% |
Honda | 107,773 | 127,058 | 114,656 | -15.2% | -15.2% | -6.0% | -6.0% |
Hyundai | 61,206 | 55,918 | 61,175 | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Kia | 50,916 | 55,519 | 54,009 | -8.3% | -8.3% | -5.7% | -5.7% |
Nissan | 53,179 | 73,854 | 67,317 | -28.0% | -28.0% | -21.0% | -21.0% |
Stellantis | 127,773 | 178,807 | 137,926 | -28.5% | -28.5% | -7.4% | -7.4% |
Subaru | 40,242 | 60,103 | 49,373 | -33.0% | -33.0% | -18.5% | -18.5% |
Tesla | 23,603 | 20,900 | 23,140 | 12.9% | 12.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Toyota | 158,156 | 199,126 | 188,585 | -20.6% | -20.6% | -16.1% | -16.1% |
Volkswagen Group | 36,440 | 50,482 | 42,704 | -27.8% | -27.8% | -14.7% | -14.7% |
Industry | 1,007,396 | 1,351,643 | 1,095,323 | -25.5% | -25.5% | -8.0% | -8.0% |
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Manufacturer | Sep 2021 Forecast | Sep 2020 Actual | Aug 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 29,111 | 30,518 | 27,136 | -4.6% | -4.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
Daimler | 15,063 | 21,347 | 19,935 | -29.4% | -29.4% | -24.4% | -24.4% |
Ford | 112,039 | 151,492 | 100,159 | -26.0% | -26.0% | 11.9% | 11.9% |
GM | 95,593 | 204,032 | 116,949 | -53.1% | -53.1% | -18.3% | -18.3% |
Honda | 106,746 | 126,457 | 114,177 | -15.6% | -15.6% | -6.5% | -6.5% |
Hyundai | 57,256 | 48,426 | 56,590 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
Kia | 45,686 | 50,554 | 52,000 | -9.6% | -9.6% | -12.1% | -12.1% |
Nissan | 48,252 | 69,591 | 55,652 | -30.7% | -30.7% | -13.3% | -13.3% |
Stellantis | 105,499 | 149,675 | 115,313 | -29.5% | -29.5% | -8.5% | -8.5% |
Subaru | 40,037 | 59,292 | 47,532 | -32.5% | -32.5% | -15.8% | -15.8% |
Tesla | 23,438 | 20,900 | 23,132 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
Toyota | 144,157 | 189,713 | 166,955 | -24.0% | -24.0% | -13.7% | -13.7% |
Volkswagen Group | 35,652 | 50,061 | 42,093 | -28.8% | -28.8% | -15.3% | -15.3% |
Industry | 899,072 | 1,217,935 | 981,187 | -26.2% | -26.2% | -8.4% | -8.4% |
Fleet Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2021 Forecast | Sep 2020 Actual | Aug 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | MoM % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 565 | 513 | 466 | 10.2% | 10.2% | 21.2% | 21.2% |
Daimler | 1,046 | 705 | 416 | 48.4% | 48.4% | 151.3% | 151.3% |
Ford | 33,754 | 37,883 | 23,184 | -10.9% | -10.9% | 45.6% | 45.6% |
GM | 13,610 | 34,510 | 17,458 | -60.6% | -60.6% | -22.0% | -22.0% |
Honda | 1,028 | 601 | 479 | 71.0% | 71.0% | 114.7% | 114.7% |
Hyundai | 3,950 | 7,492 | 4,585 | -47.3% | -47.3% | -13.8% | -13.8% |
Kia | 5,230 | 4,965 | 2,009 | 5.3% | 5.3% | 160.3% | 160.3% |
Nissan | 4,927 | 4,263 | 11,665 | 15.6% | 15.6% | -57.8% | -57.8% |
Stellantis | 22,274 | 29,132 | 22,613 | -23.5% | -23.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
Subaru | 205 | 811 | 1,841 | -74.7% | -74.7% | -88.9% | -88.9% |
Tesla | 165 | - | 8 | 1991.4% | 1991.4% | ||
Toyota | 13,999 | 9,413 | 21,630 | 48.7% | 48.7% | -35.3% | -35.3% |
Volkswagen Group | 789 | 421 | 611 | 87.3% | 87.3% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
Industry | 108,324 | 133,708 | 114,136 | -19.0% | -19.0% | -5.1% | -5.1% |
Fleet Penetration | |||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2021 Forecast | Sep 2020 Actual | Aug 2021 Actual | YoY % Change | MoM % Change |
BMW | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 15.2% | 12.8% |
Daimler | 6.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 103.1% | 217.5% |
Ford | 23.2% | 20.0% | 18.8% | 15.7% | 23.2% |
GM | 12.5% | 14.5% | 13.0% | -13.9% | -4.1% |
Honda | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 101.5% | 128.4% |
Hyundai | 6.5% | 13.4% | 7.5% | -51.8% | -13.9% |
Kia | 10.3% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 14.9% | 176.1% |
Nissan | 9.3% | 5.8% | 17.3% | 60.5% | -46.5% |
Stellantis | 17.4% | 16.3% | 16.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% |
Subaru | 0.5% | 1.3% | 3.7% | -62.3% | -86.3% |
Tesla | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1950.4% | |
Toyota | 8.9% | 4.7% | 11.5% | 87.2% | -22.8% |
Volkswagen Group | 2.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 159.5% | 51.2% |
Industry | 10.8% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 3.2% |
Total Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Sep 2021 Forecast | Sep 2020 Actual | Aug 2021 Actual |
BMW | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
Daimler | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% |
Ford | 14.5% | 14.0% | 11.3% |
GM | 10.8% | 17.6% | 12.3% |
Honda | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.5% |
Hyundai | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% |
Kia | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% |
Nissan | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% |
Stellantis | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.6% |
Subaru | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% |
Tesla | 2.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% |
Toyota | 15.7% | 14.7% | 17.2% |
Volkswagen Group | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% |
95.3% | 96.4% | 95.4% | |
Retail Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Sep 2021 Forecast | Sep 2020 Actual | Aug 2021 Actual |
BMW | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
Daimler | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% |
Ford | 12.5% | 12.4% | 10.2% |
GM | 10.6% | 16.8% | 11.9% |
Honda | 11.9% | 10.4% | 11.6% |
Hyundai | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% |
Kia | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% |
Nissan | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
Stellantis | 11.7% | 12.3% | 11.8% |
Subaru | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% |
Tesla | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% |
Toyota | 16.0% | 15.6% | 17.0% |
Volkswagen Group | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% |
95.5% | 96.2% | 95.6% | |
ATP | |||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2021 Forecast | Sep 2020 Actual | Aug 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | $61,391 | $59,926 | $59,670 | 2.4% | 2.9% |
Daimler | $64,782 | $58,399 | $66,211 | 10.9% | -2.2% |
Ford | $47,532 | $43,151 | $47,301 | 10.2% | 0.5% |
GM | $46,722 | $41,812 | $44,654 | 11.7% | 4.6% |
Honda | $32,223 | $30,266 | $31,581 | 6.5% | 2.0% |
Hyundai | $33,488 | $29,602 | $32,421 | 13.1% | 3.3% |
Kia | $28,717 | $26,970 | $27,824 | 6.5% | 3.2% |
Nissan | $31,594 | $28,393 | $31,322 | 11.3% | 0.9% |
Stellantis | $48,079 | $43,238 | $47,189 | 11.2% | 1.9% |
Subaru | $30,293 | $29,860 | $31,139 | 1.5% | -2.7% |
Toyota | $36,772 | $34,014 | $35,489 | 8.1% | 3.6% |
Volkswagen Group | $39,733 | $40,121 | $40,696 | -1.0% | -2.4% |
Industry | $39,540 | $36,710 | $38,580 | 7.7% | 2.5% |
$2,830 | $960 | ||||
Incentives | |||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2021 Forecast | Sep 2020 Actual | Aug 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | $3,246 | $5,120 | $4,142 | -36.6% | -21.6% |
Daimler | $3,039 | $5,715 | $3,086 | -46.8% | -1.5% |
Ford | $2,850 | $4,539 | $2,381 | -37.2% | 19.7% |
GM | $2,314 | $5,438 | $2,894 | -57.4% | -20.0% |
Honda | $1,940 | $2,468 | $1,987 | -21.4% | -2.4% |
Hyundai | $1,310 | $2,708 | $1,481 | -51.6% | -11.5% |
Kia | $2,169 | $2,991 | $2,236 | -27.5% | -3.0% |
Nissan | $2,500 | $4,491 | $2,474 | -44.3% | 1.1% |
Stellantis | $2,987 | $5,079 | $2,970 | -41.2% | 0.6% |
Subaru | $1,420 | $1,844 | $1,329 | -23.0% | 6.8% |
Toyota | $1,883 | $2,705 | $2,145 | -30.4% | -12.2% |
Volkswagen Group | $2,690 | $4,311 | $2,763 | -37.6% | -2.6% |
Industry | $2,326 | $4,028 | $2,422 | -42.3% | -4.0% |
-$1,703 | -$96 | ||||
Incentives as % of ATP | |||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2021 Forecast | Sep 2020 Actual | Aug 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM |
BMW | 5.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | -38.1% | -23.8% |
Daimler | 4.7% | 9.8% | 4.7% | -52.1% | 0.7% |
Ford | 6.0% | 10.5% | 5.0% | -43.0% | 19.1% |
GM | 5.0% | 13.0% | 6.5% | -61.9% | -23.6% |
Honda | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | -26.2% | -4.3% |
Hyundai | 3.9% | 9.1% | 4.6% | -57.2% | -14.4% |
Kia | 7.6% | 11.1% | 8.0% | -31.9% | -6.0% |
Nissan | 7.9% | 15.8% | 7.9% | -50.0% | 0.2% |
Stellantis | 6.2% | 11.7% | 6.3% | -47.1% | -1.3% |
Subaru | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | -24.1% | 9.8% |
Toyota | 5.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | -35.6% | -15.3% |
Volkswagen Group | 6.8% | 10.7% | 6.8% | -37.0% | -0.3% |
Industry | 5.9% | 11.0% | 6.3% | -46.4% | -6.3% |
Revenue | |||||
Manufacturer | Sep 2021 Forecast | Sep 2020 Actual | Aug 2021 Actual | YOY | MOM |
Industry | $39,832,526,549 | $49,618,363,778 | $42,257,700,022 | -19.7% | -5.7% |
Quarterly Tables
Total Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Q3 2021 | Q3 2020 | Q2 2021 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change |
BMW | 85,832 | 78,634 | 105,901 | 9.2% | 9.2% | -19.0% | -19.0% |
Daimler | 61,437 | 72,868 | 78,246 | -15.7% | -15.7% | -21.5% | -21.5% |
Ford | 388,053 | 549,134 | 472,260 | -29.3% | -29.3% | -17.8% | -17.8% |
GM | 441,307 | 662,143 | 683,696 | -33.4% | -33.4% | -35.5% | -35.5% |
Honda | 357,971 | 388,433 | 486,419 | -7.8% | -7.8% | -26.4% | -26.4% |
Hyundai | 196,061 | 174,573 | 251,081 | 12.3% | 12.3% | -21.9% | -21.9% |
Kia | 175,024 | 165,013 | 218,961 | 6.1% | 6.1% | -20.1% | -20.1% |
Nissan | 200,952 | 221,150 | 298,148 | -9.1% | -9.1% | -32.6% | -32.6% |
Stellantis | 409,427 | 509,114 | 482,799 | -19.6% | -19.6% | -15.2% | -15.2% |
Subaru | 139,740 | 169,446 | 160,824 | -17.5% | -17.5% | -13.1% | -13.1% |
Tesla | 72,943 | 55,700 | 68,259 | 31.0% | 31.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
Toyota | 572,658 | 558,449 | 688,813 | 2.5% | 2.5% | -16.9% | -16.9% |
Volkswagen Group | 134,470 | 147,880 | 204,424 | -9.1% | -9.1% | -34.2% | -34.2% |
Industry | 3,394,494 | 3,898,745 | 4,399,779 | -12.9% | -12.9% | -22.8% | -22.8% |
Retail Unit Sales | |||||||
Manufacturer | Q3 2021 | Q3 2020 | Q2 2021 | YoY % Change | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | QoQ % Change |
BMW | 84,198 | 77,344 | 101,585 | 8.9% | 8.9% | -17.1% | -17.1% |
Daimler | 57,447 | 70,633 | 75,214 | -18.7% | -18.7% | -23.6% | -23.6% |
Ford | 298,211 | 437,933 | 367,942 | -31.9% | -31.9% | -19.0% | -19.0% |
GM | 386,307 | 584,674 | 599,919 | -33.9% | -33.9% | -35.6% | -35.6% |
Honda | 354,557 | 385,991 | 470,489 | -8.1% | -8.1% | -24.6% | -24.6% |
Hyundai | 183,408 | 163,795 | 228,494 | 12.0% | 12.0% | -19.7% | -19.7% |
Kia | 157,046 | 155,683 | 200,793 | 0.9% | 0.9% | -21.8% | -21.8% |
Nissan | 182,334 | 204,331 | 235,778 | -10.8% | -10.8% | -22.7% | -22.7% |
Stellantis | 338,053 | 435,172 | 432,993 | -22.3% | -22.3% | -21.9% | -21.9% |
Subaru | 139,028 | 166,727 | 157,210 | -16.6% | -16.6% | -11.6% | -11.6% |
Tesla | 72,433 | 55,348 | 67,627 | 30.9% | 30.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
Toyota | 521,970 | 537,846 | 601,181 | -3.0% | -3.0% | -13.2% | -13.2% |
Volkswagen Group | 131,559 | 146,473 | 189,819 | -10.2% | -10.2% | -30.7% | -30.7% |
Industry | 3,029,489 | 3,555,541 | 3,908,541 | -14.8% | -14.8% | -22.5% | -22.5% |
Total Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Q3 2021 | Q3 2020 | Q2 2021 |
BMW | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% |
Daimler | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
Ford | 11.4% | 14.1% | 10.7% |
GM | 13.0% | 17.0% | 15.5% |
Honda | 10.5% | 10.0% | 11.1% |
Hyundai | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% |
Kia | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% |
Nissan | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% |
Stellantis | 12.1% | 13.1% | 11.0% |
Subaru | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.7% |
Tesla | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
Toyota | 16.9% | 14.3% | 15.7% |
Volkswagen Group | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% |
95.3% | 96.2% | 95.5% | |
Retail Market Share | |||
Manufacturer | Q3 2021 | Q3 2020 | Q2 2021 |
BMW | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% |
Daimler | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% |
Ford | 9.8% | 12.3% | 9.4% |
GM | 12.8% | 16.4% | 15.3% |
Honda | 11.7% | 10.9% | 12.0% |
Hyundai | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% |
Kia | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% |
Nissan | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% |
Stellantis | 11.2% | 12.2% | 11.1% |
Subaru | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% |
Tesla | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% |
Toyota | 17.2% | 15.1% | 15.4% |
Volkswagen Group | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% |
95.9% | 96.2% | 95.4% | |
ATP | ||||||
Manufacturer | Q3 2021 | Q3 2020 | Q2 2021 | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | |
BMW | $59,171 | $58,537 | $58,759 | 1.1% | 0.7% | |
Daimler | $63,895 | $59,375 | $59,272 | 7.6% | 7.8% | |
Ford | $47,245 | $42,937 | $42,846 | 10.0% | 10.3% | |
GM | $45,431 | $41,577 | $43,628 | 9.3% | 4.1% | |
Honda | $31,624 | $30,157 | $31,314 | 4.9% | 1.0% | |
Hyundai | $32,351 | $29,207 | $29,730 | 10.8% | 8.8% | |
Kia | $28,125 | $26,111 | $28,150 | 7.7% | -0.1% | |
Nissan | $31,500 | $28,413 | $30,644 | 10.9% | 2.8% | |
Stellantis | $47,641 | $42,686 | $45,968 | 11.6% | 3.6% | |
Subaru | $30,795 | $30,057 | $30,936 | 2.5% | -0.5% | |
Toyota | $35,802 | $34,037 | $35,034 | 5.2% | 2.2% | |
Volkswagen Group | $40,892 | $40,404 | $43,086 | 1.2% | -5.1% | |
Industry | $38,828 | $36,522 | $37,613 | 6.3% | 3.2% | |
$2,306 | $1,215 | |||||
Incentives | ||||||
Manufacturer | Q3 2021 | Q3 2020 | Q2 2021 | YoY % Change | QoQ % Change | |
BMW | $3,929 | $5,340 | $4,713 | -26.4% | -16.6% | |
Daimler | $3,135 | $5,621 | $3,574 | -44.2% | -12.3% | |
Ford | $2,569 | $4,241 | $2,564 | -39.4% | 0.2% | |
GM | $3,062 | $5,515 | $4,399 | -44.5% | -30.4% | |
Honda | $2,013 | $2,580 | $2,167 | -22.0% | -7.1% | |
Hyundai | $1,560 | $2,547 | $2,102 | -38.7% | -25.8% | |
Kia | $2,336 | $3,428 | $2,549 | -31.9% | -8.4% | |
Nissan | $2,661 | $4,519 | $3,502 | -41.1% | -24.0% | |
Stellantis | $2,892 | $4,903 | $3,522 | -41.0% | -17.9% | |
Subaru | $1,382 | $1,851 | $1,339 | -25.3% | 3.2% | |
Toyota | $1,992 | $2,726 | $2,219 | -26.9% | -10.3% | |
Volkswagen Group | $2,939 | $4,421 | $3,730 | -33.5% | -21.2% | |
Industry | $2,478 | $3,997 | $3,003 | -38.0% | -17.5% | |
-$1,519 | -$525 | |||||
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.
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