TrueCar Forecasts Fourth Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales for August 2021

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Aug 26, 2021, 09:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Aug. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,212,399 units in August 2021, down 4% from a year ago but up 1% vs. July 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.4 million, down 4% from August 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,077,701 units, down 7% from a year ago and about even with July 2021.

"The chip shortage continues to be the driving force behind vehicle availability, creating the lowest average incentive spending since 2013¹," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Continued strong demand is creating an environment where vehicles are selling extremely quickly. About a third of vehicles are selling within a week of arriving on the dealer lot, compared to just 18% last year," added Woolard.

"Though new vehicle sales continue to decline in August, some brands saw a year-over-year increase in sales. Toyota is operating extremely well considering their inventory days' supply is roughly half the industry average. We will continue to see how they perform once their announced plant closures put additional pressure on production and inventory," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

Total sales for August 2021 are expected to be down 4% from a year ago and up 1% from July 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Fleet sales for August 2021 are expected to be up 30% from a year ago and up 9% from July 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Incentive spend is down 39% from last year.
Average transaction price is projected to be up 6% from a year ago and up .5% from July 2021.
Total SAAR is expected to be down 4% from a year ago at 14.4 million units.
Used vehicle sales for August 2021 are expected to reach 3.7 million, up 6% from a year ago and about even with July 2021.
The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.4%.
The average loan term on a new vehicle for August 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	29,416	25,235	28,845	16.6%	21.2%	2.0%	10.1%
Daimler	22,840	23,966	24,977	-4.7%	-0.9%	-8.6%	-1.2%
Ford	122,166	184,781	118,917	-33.9%	-31.2%	2.7%	11.0%
GM	183,530	218,845	197,697	-16.1%	-12.8%	-7.2%	0.3%
Honda	133,666	135,925	135,542	-1.7%	2.3%	-1.4%	6.5%
Hyundai	69,550	59,721	73,680	16.5%	21.1%	-5.6%	1.9%
Kia	64,172	57,015	70,099	12.6%	17.1%	-8.5%	-1.1%
Nissan	64,205	73,833	80,456	-13.0%	-9.6%	-20.2%	-13.8%
Stellantis	142,791	171,519	142,065	-16.7%	-13.4%	0.5%	8.6%
Subaru	43,065	57,885	50,125	-25.6%	-22.6%	-14.1%	-7.2%
Tesla	26,425	19,000	26,200	39.1%	44.6%	0.9%	8.9%
Toyota	200,202	190,532	225,917	5.1%	9.3%	-11.4%	-4.3%
Volkswagen Group	53,295	50,275	55,754	6.0%	10.2%	-4.4%	3.2%
Industry	1,212,399	1,319,682	1,291,775	-8.1%	-4.5%	-6.1%	1.4%

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	28,851	24,827	28,359	16.2%	20.9%	1.7%	9.9%
Daimler	21,794	23,120	24,466	-5.7%	-2.0%	-10.9%	-3.8%
Ford	90,121	147,570	96,446	-38.9%	-36.5%	-6.6%	0.9%
GM	155,217	196,696	172,037	-21.1%	-17.9%	-9.8%	-2.6%
Honda	132,042	135,147	134,974	-2.3%	1.6%	-2.2%	5.7%
Hyundai	61,961	57,839	66,053	7.1%	11.4%	-6.2%	1.3%
Kia	58,942	53,802	67,491	9.6%	13.9%	-12.7%	-5.7%
Nissan	58,190	68,339	66,456	-14.9%	-11.4%	-12.4%	-5.4%
Stellantis	118,682	147,408	119,919	-19.5%	-16.3%	-1.0%	6.9%
Subaru	42,220	56,999	48,256	-25.9%	-23.0%	-12.5%	-5.5%
Tesla	26,260	19,000	26,191	38.2%	43.7%	0.3%	8.3%
Toyota	180,822	184,624	199,937	-2.1%	1.9%	-9.6%	-2.3%
Volkswagen Group	52,507	49,823	54,953	5.4%	9.6%	-4.5%	3.2%
Industry	1,077,701	1,211,579	1,158,127	-11.0%	-7.5%	-6.9%	0.5%

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	565	408	486	38.5%	44.0%	16.1%	25.4%
Daimler	1,046	846	511	23.7%	28.6%	104.7%	121.1%
Ford	32,045	37,211	22,471	-13.9%	-10.4%	42.6%	54.0%
GM	28,313	22,149	25,660	27.8%	32.9%	10.3%	19.2%
Honda	1,625	778	568	108.9%	117.2%	186.1%	209.0%
Hyundai	7,589	1,882	7,627	303.3%	319.4%	-0.5%	7.5%
Kia	5,230	3,213	2,608	62.8%	69.3%	100.5%	116.6%
Nissan	6,015	5,494	14,000	9.5%	13.9%	-57.0%	-53.6%
Stellantis	24,109	24,111	22,146	0.0%	4.0%	8.9%	17.6%
Subaru	845	886	1,869	-4.6%	-0.8%	-54.8%	-51.2%
Tesla	165	-	9			1747.2%	1895.0%
Toyota	19,380	5,908	25,980	228.0%	241.2%	-25.4%	-19.4%
Volkswagen Group	789	452	801	74.4%	81.4%	-1.5%	6.4%
Industry	134,698	108,103	133,648	24.6%	29.6%	0.8%	8.8%

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	1.9%	1.6%	1.7%	18.8%	13.9%
Daimler	4.6%	3.5%	2.0%	29.8%	123.9%
Ford	26.2%	20.1%	18.9%	30.3%	38.8%
GM	15.4%	10.1%	13.0%	52.4%	18.9%
Honda	1.2%	0.6%	0.4%	112.4%	190.1%
Hyundai	10.9%	3.2%	10.4%	246.3%	5.4%
Kia	8.1%	5.6%	3.7%	44.6%	119.1%
Nissan	9.4%	7.4%	17.4%	25.9%	-46.2%
Stellantis	16.9%	14.1%	15.6%	20.1%	8.3%
Subaru	2.0%	1.5%	3.7%	28.3%	-47.4%
Tesla	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%		1731.4%
Toyota	9.7%	3.1%	11.5%	212.2%	-15.8%
Volkswagen Group	1.5%	0.9%	1.4%	64.6%	3.0%
Industry	11.1%	8.2%	10.3%	35.6%	7.4%

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual
BMW	2.4%	1.9%	2.2%
Daimler	1.9%	1.8%	1.9%
Ford	10.1%	14.0%	9.2%
GM	15.1%	16.6%	15.3%
Honda	11.0%	10.3%	10.5%
Hyundai	5.7%	4.5%	5.7%
Kia	5.3%	4.3%	5.4%
Nissan	5.3%	5.6%	6.2%
Stellantis	11.8%	13.0%	11.0%
Subaru	3.6%	4.4%	3.9%
Tesla	2.2%	1.4%	2.0%
Toyota	16.5%	14.4%	17.5%
Volkswagen Group	4.4%	3.8%	4.3%
	95.3%	96.1%	95.2%

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual
BMW	2.7%	2.0%	2.4%
Daimler	2.0%	1.9%	2.1%
Ford	8.4%	12.2%	8.3%
GM	14.4%	16.2%	14.9%
Honda	12.3%	11.2%	11.7%
Hyundai	5.7%	4.8%	5.7%
Kia	5.5%	4.4%	5.8%
Nissan	5.4%	5.6%	5.7%
Stellantis	11.0%	12.2%	10.4%
Subaru	3.9%	4.7%	4.2%
Tesla	2.4%	1.6%	2.3%
Toyota	16.8%	15.2%	17.3%
Volkswagen Group	4.9%	4.1%	4.7%
	95.4%	96.2%	95.5%

ATP
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$57,757	$57,122	$56,408	1.1%	2.4%
Daimler	$67,341	$59,487	$60,768	13.2%	10.8%
Ford	$47,641	$42,342	$46,896	12.5%	1.6%
GM	$44,962	$41,745	$44,846	7.7%	0.3%
Honda	$31,557	$30,112	$31,048	4.8%	1.6%
Hyundai	$31,842	$29,082	$31,114	9.5%	2.3%
Kia	$27,674	$26,158	$27,803	5.8%	-0.5%
Nissan	$31,393	$28,419	$31,574	10.5%	-0.6%
Stellantis	$47,719	$42,440	$47,623	12.4%	0.2%
Subaru	$31,312	$30,087	$30,983	4.1%	1.1%
Toyota	$35,035	$34,087	$35,102	2.8%	-0.2%
Volkswagen Group	$42,197	$40,947	$42,273	3.1%	-0.2%
Industry	$38,520	$36,373	$38,332	5.9%	0.5%
	$2,148		$188

Incentives
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$4,029	$5,486	$4,427	-26.6%	-9.0%
Daimler	$3,929	$5,560	$3,280	-29.3%	19.8%
Ford	$2,234	$4,023	$2,461	-44.5%	-9.2%
GM	$3,384	$5,570	$3,991	-39.2%	-15.2%
Honda	$1,945	$2,644	$2,112	-26.4%	-7.9%
Hyundai	$1,503	$2,444	$1,895	-38.5%	-20.7%
Kia	$2,034	$3,711	$2,603	-45.2%	-21.9%
Nissan	$2,283	$4,520	$3,005	-49.5%	-24.0%
Stellantis	$2,981	$4,812	$2,720	-38.1%	9.6%
Subaru	$1,192	$1,855	$1,395	-35.7%	-14.5%
Toyota	$1,825	$2,745	$1,957	-33.5%	-6.8%
Volkswagen Group	$2,799	$4,478	$3,362	-37.5%	-16.8%
Industry	$2,432	$3,969	$2,688	-38.7%	-9.5%
	-$1,537		-$256

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	7.0%	9.6%	7.8%	-27.4%	-11.1%
Daimler	5.8%	9.3%	5.4%	-37.6%	8.1%
Ford	4.7%	9.5%	5.2%	-50.7%	-10.7%
GM	7.5%	13.3%	8.9%	-43.6%	-15.4%
Honda	6.2%	8.8%	6.8%	-29.8%	-9.4%
Hyundai	4.7%	8.4%	6.1%	-43.8%	-22.5%
Kia	7.4%	14.2%	9.4%	-48.2%	-21.5%
Nissan	7.3%	15.9%	9.5%	-54.3%	-23.6%
Stellantis	6.2%	11.3%	5.7%	-44.9%	9.4%
Subaru	3.8%	6.2%	4.5%	-38.3%	-15.4%
Toyota	5.2%	8.1%	5.6%	-35.3%	-6.6%
Volkswagen Group	6.6%	10.9%	8.0%	-39.4%	-16.6%
Industry	6.3%	10.9%	7.0%	-42.1%	-10.0%

Revenue
Manufacturer	Aug 2021 Forecast	Aug 2020 Actual	Jul 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$46,702,106,518	$48,000,364,966	$49,516,875,483	-2.7%	-5.7%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

¹ according to Motor Intelligence

SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.