TrueCar Forecasts New and Used Retail Sales Up Slightly Year-Over-Year for January 2021, While Fleet Recovery Drags
Average Transaction Price Decreases Month-Over-Month for the First Time Since May 2020
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Jan. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,048,975 units in January 2021, down 4.4% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15.9 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 880,552 units, an increase of 0.4% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. Used vehicle sales for January 2021 are expected to reach 3.2 million, up 1% from a year ago and up 10% from December 2020.
"Entering 2021 with retail sales in line with last year is a big win for the automotive industry," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, while retail sales have rebounded, rental fleets remained depressed and continue to interrupt fleet sales. . As a result, fleet sales are struggling to come back to pre-pandemic levels and are driving total unit sales down."
"The automotive industry continues to reap the benefits of continued strength in retail demand with lower incentive spend. A handful of brands such as Ford, Genesis, GMC, Ram and Toyota, appear to be in the coveted quadrant of both retail growth as well as incentive decline. This is mostly driven by new product and being in the right segments or a combination of the two," added Woolard.
Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 4.2% or $1,509 from a year ago and down 4.5% or $1,759 from December 2020. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach approximately $39 billion for January 2021, down 4.4% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and down 38.2% from last month.
"Average transaction prices have finally come down from the record-setting highs we saw last month, but are still higher than this time last year. Of the bigger manufacturers, only Kia has an average transaction price below $30,000. We expect this trend to continue as consumers desire pricier trucks and SUVs," said Alain Nana-Sinkam, Vice President of Industry Insights at TrueCar. "As new vehicle prices rise, we may see more price-conscious shoppers gravitate back towards smaller segments or the used car market due to growing concerns around affordability."
Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):
- Total retail sales for January 2021 are expected to be up 0.4% from a year ago and down 28.6% from December 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for January 2021 are expected to be down 23.7% from a year ago and up 8% from December 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 4.2% or $1,509 from a year ago and down 4.5% or $1,759 from December 2020.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 5.5% from a year ago from 16.8 million units to 15.9 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for January 2021 are expected to reach 3.2 million, up 1% from a year ago and up 10% from December 2020.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.1%.
January 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Jan 2021 Forecast |
Jan 2020 Actual |
Dec 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
18,358 |
21,156 |
45,594 |
-13.2% |
-9.6% |
-59.7% |
-53.0% |
Daimler |
15,405 |
24,111 |
35,436 |
-36.1% |
-33.4% |
-56.5% |
-49.3% |
Ford |
143,106 |
156,041 |
208,007 |
-8.3% |
-4.5% |
-31.2% |
-19.7% |
GM |
199,403 |
208,032 |
295,536 |
-4.1% |
-0.2% |
-32.5% |
-21.3% |
Honda |
85,958 |
101,625 |
136,467 |
-15.4% |
-11.9% |
-37.0% |
-26.5% |
Hyundai |
40,423 |
44,143 |
69,388 |
-8.4% |
-4.6% |
-41.7% |
-32.0% |
Kia |
36,151 |
40,355 |
53,764 |
-10.4% |
-6.7% |
-32.8% |
-21.6% |
Nissan |
67,641 |
80,698 |
98,638 |
-16.2% |
-12.7% |
-31.4% |
-20.0% |
Stellantis |
124,961 |
135,239 |
202,371 |
-7.6% |
-3.7% |
-38.3% |
-28.0% |
Subaru |
40,624 |
46,285 |
63,558 |
-12.2% |
-8.6% |
-36.1% |
-25.4% |
Tesla |
26,156 |
22,350 |
26,950 |
17.0% |
21.9% |
-2.9% |
13.2% |
Toyota |
169,836 |
166,973 |
251,256 |
1.7% |
6.0% |
-32.4% |
-21.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
39,705 |
45,377 |
70,175 |
-12.5% |
-8.9% |
-43.4% |
-34.0% |
Industry |
1,048,975 |
1,143,027 |
1,619,907 |
-8.2% |
-4.4% |
-35.2% |
-24.5% |
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Jan 2021 Forecast |
Jan 2020 Actual |
Dec 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
17,885 |
19,578 |
44,801 |
-8.6% |
-4.8% |
-60.1% |
-53.4% |
Daimler |
15,086 |
22,516 |
34,711 |
-33.0% |
-30.2% |
-56.5% |
-49.3% |
Ford |
111,163 |
106,861 |
169,545 |
4.0% |
8.4% |
-34.4% |
-23.5% |
GM |
150,681 |
147,866 |
256,921 |
1.9% |
6.1% |
-41.4% |
-31.6% |
Honda |
85,485 |
100,679 |
135,896 |
-15.1% |
-11.6% |
-37.1% |
-26.6% |
Hyundai |
35,967 |
36,720 |
60,849 |
-2.0% |
2.0% |
-40.9% |
-31.0% |
Kia |
32,392 |
33,393 |
51,764 |
-3.0% |
1.0% |
-37.4% |
-27.0% |
Nissan |
52,674 |
57,436 |
81,068 |
-8.3% |
-4.5% |
-35.0% |
-24.2% |
Stellantis |
98,062 |
100,485 |
167,109 |
-2.4% |
1.7% |
-41.3% |
-31.5% |
Subaru |
38,383 |
43,618 |
61,188 |
-12.0% |
-8.3% |
-37.3% |
-26.8% |
Tesla |
26,144 |
22,350 |
26,941 |
17.0% |
21.8% |
-3.0% |
13.2% |
Toyota |
143,997 |
140,984 |
222,710 |
2.1% |
6.4% |
-35.3% |
-24.6% |
Volkswagen Group |
38,243 |
40,303 |
69,128 |
-5.1% |
-1.2% |
-44.7% |
-35.5% |
Industry |
880,552 |
913,238 |
1,437,992 |
-3.6% |
0.4% |
-38.8% |
-28.6% |
Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Jan 2021 Forecast |
Jan 2020 Actual |
Dec 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
472 |
1,578 |
793 |
-70.1% |
-68.8% |
-40.5% |
-30.5% |
Daimler |
319 |
1,595 |
725 |
-80.0% |
-79.2% |
-56.0% |
-48.7% |
Ford |
31,943 |
49,180 |
38,462 |
-35.0% |
-32.3% |
-17.0% |
-3.1% |
GM |
48,722 |
60,166 |
38,615 |
-19.0% |
-15.6% |
26.2% |
47.2% |
Honda |
473 |
946 |
571 |
-50.0% |
-47.9% |
-17.2% |
-3.3% |
Hyundai |
4,456 |
7,423 |
8,539 |
-40.0% |
-37.5% |
-47.8% |
-39.1% |
Kia |
3,759 |
6,962 |
2,000 |
-46.0% |
-43.8% |
87.9% |
119.3% |
Nissan |
14,966 |
23,262 |
17,570 |
-35.7% |
-33.0% |
-14.8% |
-0.6% |
Stellantis |
26,900 |
34,754 |
35,262 |
-22.6% |
-19.4% |
-23.7% |
-11.0% |
Subaru |
2,241 |
2,667 |
2,370 |
-16.0% |
-12.5% |
-5.4% |
10.3% |
Tesla |
12 |
- |
9 |
- |
- |
30.6% |
52.4% |
Toyota |
25,839 |
25,989 |
28,546 |
-0.6% |
3.6% |
-9.5% |
5.6% |
Volkswagen Group |
1,462 |
5,074 |
1,047 |
-71.2% |
-70.0% |
39.7% |
63.0% |
Industry |
168,423 |
229,789 |
181,915 |
-26.7% |
-23.7% |
-7.4% |
8.0% |
Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer |
Jan 2021 Forecast |
Jan 2020 Actual |
Dec 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
2.6% |
7.5% |
1.7% |
-65.5% |
47.9% |
Daimler |
2.1% |
6.6% |
2.0% |
-68.7% |
1.2% |
Ford |
22.3% |
31.5% |
18.5% |
-29.2% |
20.7% |
GM |
24.4% |
28.9% |
13.1% |
-15.5% |
87.0% |
Honda |
0.6% |
0.9% |
0.4% |
-40.9% |
31.5% |
Hyundai |
11.0% |
16.8% |
12.3% |
-34.4% |
-10.4% |
Kia |
10.4% |
17.3% |
3.7% |
-39.7% |
179.5% |
Nissan |
22.1% |
28.8% |
17.8% |
-23.2% |
24.2% |
Stellantis |
21.5% |
25.7% |
17.4% |
-16.2% |
23.5% |
Subaru |
5.5% |
5.8% |
3.7% |
-4.3% |
47.9% |
Tesla |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
34.6% |
|
Toyota |
15.2% |
15.6% |
11.4% |
-2.3% |
33.9% |
Volkswagen Group |
3.7% |
11.2% |
1.5% |
-67.1% |
146.9% |
Industry |
16.1% |
20.1% |
11.2% |
-20.1% |
43.0% |
Total Market Share
Manufacturer |
Jan 2021 Forecast |
Jan 2020 Actual |
Dec 2020 Actual |
BMW |
1.8% |
1.9% |
2.8% |
Daimler |
1.5% |
2.1% |
2.2% |
Ford |
13.6% |
13.7% |
12.8% |
GM |
19.0% |
18.2% |
18.2% |
Honda |
8.2% |
8.9% |
8.4% |
Hyundai |
3.9% |
3.9% |
4.3% |
Kia |
3.4% |
3.5% |
3.3% |
Nissan |
6.4% |
7.1% |
6.1% |
Stellantis |
11.9% |
11.8% |
12.5% |
Subaru |
3.9% |
4.0% |
3.9% |
Tesla |
2.5% |
2.0% |
1.7% |
Toyota |
16.2% |
14.6% |
15.5% |
Volkswagen Group |
3.8% |
4.0% |
4.3% |
Retail Market Share
Manufacturer |
Jan 2021 Forecast |
Jan 2020 Actual |
Dec 2020 Actual |
BMW |
2.0% |
2.1% |
3.1% |
Daimler |
1.7% |
2.5% |
2.4% |
Ford |
12.6% |
11.7% |
11.8% |
GM |
17.1% |
16.2% |
17.9% |
Honda |
9.7% |
11.0% |
9.5% |
Hyundai |
4.1% |
4.0% |
4.2% |
Kia |
3.7% |
3.7% |
3.6% |
Nissan |
6.0% |
6.3% |
5.6% |
Stellantis |
11.1% |
11.0% |
11.6% |
Subaru |
4.4% |
4.8% |
4.3% |
Tesla |
3.0% |
2.4% |
1.9% |
Toyota |
16.4% |
15.4% |
15.5% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.3% |
4.4% |
4.8% |
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Jan 2021 Forecast |
Jan 2020 Actual |
Dec 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$58,473 |
$57,090 |
$59,710 |
2.4% |
-2.1% |
Daimler |
$61,867 |
$60,853 |
$61,087 |
1.7% |
1.3% |
Ford |
$43,580 |
$42,543 |
$44,354 |
2.4% |
-1.7% |
GM |
$41,852 |
$39,522 |
$43,735 |
5.9% |
-4.3% |
Honda |
$30,740 |
$29,220 |
$30,959 |
5.2% |
-0.7% |
Hyundai |
$31,273 |
$28,324 |
$30,477 |
10.4% |
2.6% |
Kia |
$28,204 |
$25,647 |
$28,137 |
10.0% |
0.2% |
Nissan |
$30,068 |
$29,351 |
$29,965 |
2.4% |
0.3% |
Stellantis |
$42,886 |
$40,590 |
$43,259 |
5.7% |
-0.9% |
Subaru |
$30,564 |
$30,032 |
$30,789 |
1.8% |
-0.7% |
Toyota |
$34,995 |
$33,379 |
$35,321 |
4.8% |
-0.9% |
Volkswagen Group |
$43,040 |
$40,787 |
$42,920 |
5.5% |
0.3% |
Industry |
$37,330 |
$35,821 |
$39,089 |
4.2% |
-4.5% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Jan 2021 Forecast |
Jan 2020 Actual |
Dec 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
|
BMW |
$4,687 |
$5,812 |
$5,233 |
-19.4% |
-10.4% |
|
Daimler |
$4,187 |
$6,246 |
$4,438 |
-33.0% |
-5.7% |
|
Ford |
$3,925 |
$4,926 |
$4,464 |
-20.3% |
-12.1% |
|
GM |
$5,537 |
$5,673 |
$4,971 |
-2.4% |
11.4% |
|
Honda |
$2,862 |
$2,520 |
$2,455 |
13.6% |
16.6% |
|
Hyundai |
$2,281 |
$3,092 |
$2,536 |
-26.2% |
-10.0% |
|
Kia |
$2,605 |
$3,686 |
$2,999 |
-29.3% |
-13.1% |
|
Nissan |
$4,062 |
$4,842 |
$4,586 |
-16.1% |
-11.4% |
|
Stellantis |
$5,284 |
$5,027 |
$4,681 |
5.1% |
12.9% |
|
Subaru |
$1,512 |
$1,244 |
$1,505 |
21.5% |
0.5% |
|
Toyota |
$2,466 |
$2,679 |
$2,755 |
-8.0% |
-10.5% |
|
Volkswagen Group |
$3,754 |
$4,407 |
$4,256 |
-14.8% |
-11.8% |
|
Industry |
$3,839 |
$4,151 |
$3,869 |
-7.5% |
-0.8% |
|
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Jan 2021 Forecast |
Jan 2020 Actual |
Dec 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
|
BMW |
8.0% |
10.2% |
8.8% |
-21.3% |
-8.5% |
|
Daimler |
6.8% |
10.3% |
7.3% |
-34.1% |
-6.8% |
|
Ford |
9.0% |
11.6% |
10.1% |
-22.2% |
-10.5% |
|
GM |
13.2% |
14.4% |
11.4% |
-7.8% |
16.4% |
|
Honda |
9.3% |
8.6% |
7.9% |
8.0% |
17.4% |
|
Hyundai |
7.3% |
10.9% |
8.3% |
-33.2% |
-12.3% |
|
Kia |
9.2% |
14.4% |
10.7% |
-35.7% |
-13.3% |
|
Nissan |
13.5% |
16.5% |
15.3% |
-18.1% |
-11.7% |
|
Stellantis |
12.3% |
12.4% |
10.8% |
-0.5% |
13.9% |
|
Subaru |
4.9% |
4.1% |
4.9% |
19.4% |
1.2% |
|
Toyota |
7.0% |
8.0% |
7.8% |
-12.2% |
-9.7% |
|
Volkswagen Group |
8.7% |
10.8% |
9.9% |
-19.3% |
-12.0% |
|
Industry |
10.3% |
11.6% |
9.9% |
-11.2% |
3.9% |
|
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas, and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: [email protected]
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SOURCE Truecar, Inc.
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