TrueCar Forecasts New Vehicle Retail Sales Flat, Used Retail Sales Down for February 2021

Average transaction price continues to increase, while incentives reach lowest levels since 2017

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Feb 23, 2021, 09:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Feb. 23, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc., the most efficient and transparent way to find a car, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,170,856 units in February 2021, down 7.6% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15.5 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 967,545 units, a decrease of 0.4% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. Used vehicle sales for February 2021 are expected to reach 3.5 million, down 4% from a year ago and up 12% from January 2021.

Retail Sales Change (DSR): Percentage Difference Year-Over-Year 2020/2021

"New vehicle retail sales are expected to be flat for February, which is a good result given the expansive and prolonged nature of the winter storms throughout many parts of the country, including southern states, which do not typically experience snow storms of this caliber. At this time, many people are thinking about basic necessities, not purchasing their next vehicle. Those consumers are likely deferring their vehicle purchasing to the end of the month or to March," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.

"We're seeing fleet recovery slow down significantly year-over-year. February is typically a big month for fleet sales, but the continued reduction in travel by consumer is delaying fleet recovery. This may be a sign that manufacturers are beginning to triage the ongoing microchip shortage by further pulling back from fleet and reallocating towards retail to help limit inventory shortages," added Woolard.

"It's important to call out GM and Toyota, which are both up year-over-year in retail sales as a result of their strong and diversified lineups with in-demand SUVs and trucks. Toyota has doubled down on their hybrid strategy with the RAV4, Highlander, Sienna, and Venza, while GM continues to successfully produce a variety of popular trucks," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President, OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 6.6% or $2,366 from a year ago and up 1.4% or $518 from January 2021. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach approximately $44 billion for February 2021, down 9.1% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 7% from last month.

"As average transaction price continues to increase and inch closer towards the $40,000 mark, incentives continue to trend downward. Based on TrueCar data, incentives are the lowest that we have seen since at least 2017. With inventory still recovering from pandemic related production pauses and the chip shortage threatening to disrupt production again, incentives will stay low until the recovery is met," added Tompkins.

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

Total retail sales for February 2021 are expected to be down 0.4% from a year ago and down 1.9% from January 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Fleet sales for February 2021 are expected to be down 31% from a year ago and up 65% from January 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Average transaction price is projected to be up 6.6% or $2,366 from a year ago and up 4.5% or $518 from January 2021.
Total SAAR is expected to decrease 7.4% from a year ago from 16.7 million units to 15.5 million units.
Used vehicle sales for February 2021 are expected to reach 3.5 million, down 12% from a year ago and up 12% from January 2021.
The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.4% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.0%.

February 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer	Feb 2021 Forecast	Feb 2020 Actual	Jan 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	23,839	27,476	19,740	-13.2%	-6.0%	20.8%	20.8%
Daimler	17,416	26,088	25,268	-33.2%	-27.7%	-31.1%	-31.1%
Ford	158,869	189,561	142,577	-16.2%	-9.2%	11.4%	11.4%
GM	214,265	238,448	201,954	-10.1%	-2.7%	6.1%	6.1%
Honda	100,884	120,006	92,225	-15.9%	-8.9%	9.4%	9.4%
Hyundai	42,436	54,600	46,208	-22.3%	-15.8%	-8.2%	-8.2%
Kia	44,569	52,177	44,965	-14.6%	-7.5%	-0.9%	-0.9%
Nissan	86,810	99,253	71,081	-12.5%	-5.2%	22.1%	22.1%
Stellantis	142,459	183,926	134,406	-22.5%	-16.1%	6.0%	6.0%
Subaru	46,158	51,695	46,400	-10.7%	-3.3%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Tesla	21,981	20,450	24,700	7.5%	16.4%	-11.0%	-11.0%
Toyota	177,461	195,407	167,936	-9.2%	-1.6%	5.7%	5.7%
Volkswagen Group	44,351	50,390	44,953	-12.0%	-4.7%	-1.3%	-1.3%
Industry	1,170,856	1,373,324	1,109,578	-14.7%	-7.6%	5.5%	5.5%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer	Feb 2021 Forecast	Feb 2020 Actual	Jan 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	22,861	24,271	19,407	-5.8%	2.0%	17.8%	17.8%
Daimler	17,101	24,513	24,751	-30.2%	-24.4%	-30.9%	-30.9%
Ford	111,916	120,607	116,069	-7.2%	0.5%	-3.6%	-3.6%
GM	164,432	169,235	175,007	-2.8%	5.3%	-6.0%	-6.0%
Honda	100,282	118,802	91,837	-15.6%	-8.6%	9.2%	9.2%
Hyundai	39,248	42,863	43,554	-8.4%	-0.8%	-9.9%	-9.9%
Kia	41,225	45,983	43,292	-10.3%	-2.9%	-4.8%	-4.8%
Nissan	58,715	68,093	58,548	-13.8%	-6.6%	0.3%	0.3%
Stellantis	112,778	117,974	111,096	-4.4%	3.6%	1.5%	1.5%
Subaru	43,604	48,655	44,670	-10.4%	-2.9%	-2.4%	-2.4%
Tesla	21,969	20,450	24,692	7.4%	16.4%	-11.0%	-11.0%
Toyota	155,138	160,981	148,143	-3.6%	4.4%	4.7%	4.7%
Volkswagen Group	42,855	45,272	44,298	-5.3%	2.5%	-3.3%	-3.3%
Industry	967,545	1,052,254	986,522	-8.1%	-0.4%	-1.9%	-1.9%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer	Feb 2021 Forecast	Feb 2020 Actual	Jan 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	978	3,205	333	-69.5%	-67.0%	193.8%	193.8%
Daimler	315	1,575	517	-80.0%	-78.3%	-39.0%	-39.0%
Ford	46,953	68,954	26,508	-31.9%	-26.2%	77.1%	77.1%
GM	49,833	69,213	26,947	-28.0%	-22.0%	84.9%	84.9%
Honda	602	1,204	388	-50.0%	-45.8%	55.2%	55.2%
Hyundai	3,187	11,737	2,654	-72.8%	-70.6%	20.1%	20.1%
Kia	3,345	6,194	1,673	-46.0%	-41.5%	100.0%	100.0%
Nissan	28,094	31,160	12,533	-9.8%	-2.3%	124.2%	124.2%
Stellantis	29,681	65,952	23,310	-55.0%	-51.2%	27.3%	27.3%
Subaru	2,554	3,040	1,730	-16.0%	-9.0%	47.6%	47.6%
Tesla	12	-	8	-	-	42.5%	42.5%
Toyota	22,323	34,426	19,793	-35.2%	-29.8%	12.8%	12.8%
Volkswagen Group	1,495	5,118	655	-70.8%	-68.3%	128.2%	128.2%
Industry	203,311	321,070	123,056	-36.7%	-31.4%	65.2%	65.2%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer	Feb 2021 Forecast	Feb 2020 Actual	Jan 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	4.1%	11.7%	1.7%	-64.8%	143.3%
Daimler	1.8%	6.0%	2.0%	-70.0%	-11.6%
Ford	29.6%	36.4%	18.6%	-18.8%	59.0%
GM	23.3%	29.0%	13.3%	-19.9%	74.3%
Honda	0.6%	1.0%	0.4%	-40.5%	41.8%
Hyundai	7.5%	21.5%	5.7%	-65.1%	30.8%
Kia	7.5%	11.9%	3.7%	-36.8%	101.7%
Nissan	32.4%	31.4%	17.6%	3.1%	83.5%
Stellantis	20.8%	35.9%	17.3%	-41.9%	20.1%
Subaru	5.5%	5.9%	3.7%	-5.9%	48.4%
Tesla	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	-	60.1%
Toyota	12.6%	17.6%	11.8%	-28.6%	6.7%
Volkswagen Group	3.4%	10.2%	1.5%	-66.8%	131.4%
Industry	17.4%	23.4%	11.1%	-25.7%	56.6%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer	Feb 2021 Forecast	Feb 2020 Actual	Jan 2021 Actual
BMW	2.0%	2.0%	1.8%
Daimler	1.5%	1.9%	2.3%
Ford	13.6%	13.8%	12.8%
GM	18.3%	17.4%	18.2%
Honda	8.6%	8.7%	8.3%
Hyundai	3.6%	4.0%	4.2%
Kia	3.8%	3.8%	4.1%
Nissan	7.4%	7.2%	6.4%
Stellantis	12.2%	13.4%	12.1%
Subaru	3.9%	3.8%	4.2%
Tesla	1.9%	1.5%	2.2%
Toyota	15.2%	14.2%	15.1%
Volkswagen Group	3.8%	3.7%	4.1%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer	Feb 2021 Forecast	Feb 2020 Actual	Jan 2021 Actual
BMW	2.4%	2.3%	2.0%
Daimler	1.8%	2.3%	2.5%
Ford	11.6%	11.5%	11.8%
GM	17.0%	16.1%	17.7%
Honda	10.4%	11.3%	9.3%
Hyundai	4.1%	4.1%	4.4%
Kia	4.3%	4.4%	4.4%
Nissan	6.1%	6.5%	5.9%
Stellantis	11.7%	11.2%	11.3%
Subaru	4.5%	4.6%	4.5%
Tesla	2.3%	1.9%	2.5%
Toyota	16.0%	15.3%	15.0%
Volkswagen Group	4.4%	4.3%	4.5%

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer	Feb 2021 Forecast	Feb 2020 Actual	Jan 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$59,919	$57,587	$57,922	4.0%	3.4%
Daimler	$62,806	$61,188	$62,387	2.6%	0.7%
Ford	$44,925	$42,465	$43,535	5.8%	3.2%
GM	$42,797	$39,979	$42,045	7.0%	1.8%
Honda	$31,166	$29,398	$31,059	6.0%	0.3%
Hyundai	$31,037	$29,279	$31,073	6.0%	-0.1%
Kia	$28,796	$25,988	$28,233	10.8%	2.0%
Nissan	$30,087	$28,470	$29,304	5.7%	2.7%
Stellantis	$43,903	$40,100	$42,713	9.5%	2.8%
Subaru	$30,701	$30,007	$30,616	2.3%	0.3%
Toyota	$35,135	$33,429	$34,890	5.1%	0.7%
Volkswagen Group	$43,870	$40,286	$43,358	8.9%	1.2%
Industry	$38,075	$35,709	$37,558	6.6%	1.4%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer		Feb 2021 Forecast	Feb 2020 Actual	Jan 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$4,497		$5,821	$5,177	-22.8%	-13.1%
Daimler	$3,740		$6,246	$4,438	-40.1%	-15.7%
Ford	$3,472		$4,918	$4,441	-29.4%	-21.8%
GM	$4,710		$5,688	$4,944	-17.2%	-4.7%
Honda	$2,290		$2,559	$2,363	-10.5%	-3.1%
Hyundai	$2,205		$3,078	$2,558	-28.4%	-13.8%
Kia	$2,825		$3,686	$2,999	-23.4%	-5.8%
Nissan	$3,543		$4,749	$4,510	-25.4%	-21.4%
Stellantis	$4,186		$5,093	$4,642	-17.8%	-9.8%
Subaru	$1,401		$1,244	$1,505	12.6%	-6.9%
Toyota	$2,363		$2,649	$2,616	-10.8%	-9.7%
Volkswagen Group	$3,113		$4,435	$4,153	-29.8%	-25.1%
Industry	$3,356		$4,177	$3,787	-19.7%	-11.4%

Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer		Feb 2021 Forecast	Feb 2020 Actual	Jan 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	7.5%		10.1%	8.9%	-25.8%	-16.0%
Daimler	6.0%		10.2%	7.1%	-41.7%	-16.3%
Ford	7.7%		11.6%	10.2%	-33.3%	-24.3%
GM	11.0%		14.2%	11.8%	-22.6%	-6.4%
Honda	7.3%		8.7%	7.6%	-15.6%	-3.4%
Hyundai	7.1%		10.5%	8.2%	-32.4%	-13.7%
Kia	9.8%		14.2%	10.6%	-30.8%	-7.6%
Nissan	11.8%		16.7%	15.4%	-29.4%	-23.5%
Stellantis	9.5%		12.7%	10.9%	-24.9%	-12.3%
Subaru	4.6%		4.1%	4.9%	10.0%	-7.2%
Toyota	6.7%		7.9%	7.5%	-15.1%	-10.3%
Volkswagen Group	7.1%		11.0%	9.6%	-35.5%	-25.9%
Industry	8.8%		11.7%	10.1%	-24.6%	-12.6%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas, and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: [email protected]

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.