TrueCar Forecasts New Vehicle Retail Sales Flat, Used Retail Sales Down for February 2021
Average transaction price continues to increase, while incentives reach lowest levels since 2017
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Feb. 23, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc., the most efficient and transparent way to find a car, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,170,856 units in February 2021, down 7.6% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 15.5 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 967,545 units, a decrease of 0.4% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. Used vehicle sales for February 2021 are expected to reach 3.5 million, down 4% from a year ago and up 12% from January 2021.
"New vehicle retail sales are expected to be flat for February, which is a good result given the expansive and prolonged nature of the winter storms throughout many parts of the country, including southern states, which do not typically experience snow storms of this caliber. At this time, many people are thinking about basic necessities, not purchasing their next vehicle. Those consumers are likely deferring their vehicle purchasing to the end of the month or to March," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.
"We're seeing fleet recovery slow down significantly year-over-year. February is typically a big month for fleet sales, but the continued reduction in travel by consumer is delaying fleet recovery. This may be a sign that manufacturers are beginning to triage the ongoing microchip shortage by further pulling back from fleet and reallocating towards retail to help limit inventory shortages," added Woolard.
"It's important to call out GM and Toyota, which are both up year-over-year in retail sales as a result of their strong and diversified lineups with in-demand SUVs and trucks. Toyota has doubled down on their hybrid strategy with the RAV4, Highlander, Sienna, and Venza, while GM continues to successfully produce a variety of popular trucks," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President, OEM Solutions at TrueCar.
Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 6.6% or $2,366 from a year ago and up 1.4% or $518 from January 2021. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach approximately $44 billion for February 2021, down 9.1% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 7% from last month.
"As average transaction price continues to increase and inch closer towards the $40,000 mark, incentives continue to trend downward. Based on TrueCar data, incentives are the lowest that we have seen since at least 2017. With inventory still recovering from pandemic related production pauses and the chip shortage threatening to disrupt production again, incentives will stay low until the recovery is met," added Tompkins.
Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):
- Total retail sales for February 2021 are expected to be down 0.4% from a year ago and down 1.9% from January 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for February 2021 are expected to be down 31% from a year ago and up 65% from January 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 6.6% or $2,366 from a year ago and up 4.5% or $518 from January 2021.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 7.4% from a year ago from 16.7 million units to 15.5 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for February 2021 are expected to reach 3.5 million, down 12% from a year ago and up 12% from January 2021.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.4% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.0%.
February 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Feb 2021 Forecast |
Feb 2020 Actual |
Jan 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
23,839 |
27,476 |
19,740 |
-13.2% |
-6.0% |
20.8% |
20.8% |
Daimler |
17,416 |
26,088 |
25,268 |
-33.2% |
-27.7% |
-31.1% |
-31.1% |
Ford |
158,869 |
189,561 |
142,577 |
-16.2% |
-9.2% |
11.4% |
11.4% |
GM |
214,265 |
238,448 |
201,954 |
-10.1% |
-2.7% |
6.1% |
6.1% |
Honda |
100,884 |
120,006 |
92,225 |
-15.9% |
-8.9% |
9.4% |
9.4% |
Hyundai |
42,436 |
54,600 |
46,208 |
-22.3% |
-15.8% |
-8.2% |
-8.2% |
Kia |
44,569 |
52,177 |
44,965 |
-14.6% |
-7.5% |
-0.9% |
-0.9% |
Nissan |
86,810 |
99,253 |
71,081 |
-12.5% |
-5.2% |
22.1% |
22.1% |
Stellantis |
142,459 |
183,926 |
134,406 |
-22.5% |
-16.1% |
6.0% |
6.0% |
Subaru |
46,158 |
51,695 |
46,400 |
-10.7% |
-3.3% |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
Tesla |
21,981 |
20,450 |
24,700 |
7.5% |
16.4% |
-11.0% |
-11.0% |
Toyota |
177,461 |
195,407 |
167,936 |
-9.2% |
-1.6% |
5.7% |
5.7% |
Volkswagen Group |
44,351 |
50,390 |
44,953 |
-12.0% |
-4.7% |
-1.3% |
-1.3% |
Industry |
1,170,856 |
1,373,324 |
1,109,578 |
-14.7% |
-7.6% |
5.5% |
5.5% |
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Feb 2021 Forecast |
Feb 2020 Actual |
Jan 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
22,861 |
24,271 |
19,407 |
-5.8% |
2.0% |
17.8% |
17.8% |
Daimler |
17,101 |
24,513 |
24,751 |
-30.2% |
-24.4% |
-30.9% |
-30.9% |
Ford |
111,916 |
120,607 |
116,069 |
-7.2% |
0.5% |
-3.6% |
-3.6% |
GM |
164,432 |
169,235 |
175,007 |
-2.8% |
5.3% |
-6.0% |
-6.0% |
Honda |
100,282 |
118,802 |
91,837 |
-15.6% |
-8.6% |
9.2% |
9.2% |
Hyundai |
39,248 |
42,863 |
43,554 |
-8.4% |
-0.8% |
-9.9% |
-9.9% |
Kia |
41,225 |
45,983 |
43,292 |
-10.3% |
-2.9% |
-4.8% |
-4.8% |
Nissan |
58,715 |
68,093 |
58,548 |
-13.8% |
-6.6% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Stellantis |
112,778 |
117,974 |
111,096 |
-4.4% |
3.6% |
1.5% |
1.5% |
Subaru |
43,604 |
48,655 |
44,670 |
-10.4% |
-2.9% |
-2.4% |
-2.4% |
Tesla |
21,969 |
20,450 |
24,692 |
7.4% |
16.4% |
-11.0% |
-11.0% |
Toyota |
155,138 |
160,981 |
148,143 |
-3.6% |
4.4% |
4.7% |
4.7% |
Volkswagen Group |
42,855 |
45,272 |
44,298 |
-5.3% |
2.5% |
-3.3% |
-3.3% |
Industry |
967,545 |
1,052,254 |
986,522 |
-8.1% |
-0.4% |
-1.9% |
-1.9% |
Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Feb 2021 Forecast |
Feb 2020 Actual |
Jan 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
978 |
3,205 |
333 |
-69.5% |
-67.0% |
193.8% |
193.8% |
Daimler |
315 |
1,575 |
517 |
-80.0% |
-78.3% |
-39.0% |
-39.0% |
Ford |
46,953 |
68,954 |
26,508 |
-31.9% |
-26.2% |
77.1% |
77.1% |
GM |
49,833 |
69,213 |
26,947 |
-28.0% |
-22.0% |
84.9% |
84.9% |
Honda |
602 |
1,204 |
388 |
-50.0% |
-45.8% |
55.2% |
55.2% |
Hyundai |
3,187 |
11,737 |
2,654 |
-72.8% |
-70.6% |
20.1% |
20.1% |
Kia |
3,345 |
6,194 |
1,673 |
-46.0% |
-41.5% |
100.0% |
100.0% |
Nissan |
28,094 |
31,160 |
12,533 |
-9.8% |
-2.3% |
124.2% |
124.2% |
Stellantis |
29,681 |
65,952 |
23,310 |
-55.0% |
-51.2% |
27.3% |
27.3% |
Subaru |
2,554 |
3,040 |
1,730 |
-16.0% |
-9.0% |
47.6% |
47.6% |
Tesla |
12 |
- |
8 |
- |
- |
42.5% |
42.5% |
Toyota |
22,323 |
34,426 |
19,793 |
-35.2% |
-29.8% |
12.8% |
12.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
1,495 |
5,118 |
655 |
-70.8% |
-68.3% |
128.2% |
128.2% |
Industry |
203,311 |
321,070 |
123,056 |
-36.7% |
-31.4% |
65.2% |
65.2% |
Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer |
Feb 2021 Forecast |
Feb 2020 Actual |
Jan 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
4.1% |
11.7% |
1.7% |
-64.8% |
143.3% |
Daimler |
1.8% |
6.0% |
2.0% |
-70.0% |
-11.6% |
Ford |
29.6% |
36.4% |
18.6% |
-18.8% |
59.0% |
GM |
23.3% |
29.0% |
13.3% |
-19.9% |
74.3% |
Honda |
0.6% |
1.0% |
0.4% |
-40.5% |
41.8% |
Hyundai |
7.5% |
21.5% |
5.7% |
-65.1% |
30.8% |
Kia |
7.5% |
11.9% |
3.7% |
-36.8% |
101.7% |
Nissan |
32.4% |
31.4% |
17.6% |
3.1% |
83.5% |
Stellantis |
20.8% |
35.9% |
17.3% |
-41.9% |
20.1% |
Subaru |
5.5% |
5.9% |
3.7% |
-5.9% |
48.4% |
Tesla |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
- |
60.1% |
Toyota |
12.6% |
17.6% |
11.8% |
-28.6% |
6.7% |
Volkswagen Group |
3.4% |
10.2% |
1.5% |
-66.8% |
131.4% |
Industry |
17.4% |
23.4% |
11.1% |
-25.7% |
56.6% |
Total Market Share
Manufacturer |
Feb 2021 Forecast |
Feb 2020 Actual |
Jan 2021 Actual |
BMW |
2.0% |
2.0% |
1.8% |
Daimler |
1.5% |
1.9% |
2.3% |
Ford |
13.6% |
13.8% |
12.8% |
GM |
18.3% |
17.4% |
18.2% |
Honda |
8.6% |
8.7% |
8.3% |
Hyundai |
3.6% |
4.0% |
4.2% |
Kia |
3.8% |
3.8% |
4.1% |
Nissan |
7.4% |
7.2% |
6.4% |
Stellantis |
12.2% |
13.4% |
12.1% |
Subaru |
3.9% |
3.8% |
4.2% |
Tesla |
1.9% |
1.5% |
2.2% |
Toyota |
15.2% |
14.2% |
15.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
3.8% |
3.7% |
4.1% |
Retail Market Share
Manufacturer |
Feb 2021 Forecast |
Feb 2020 Actual |
Jan 2021 Actual |
BMW |
2.4% |
2.3% |
2.0% |
Daimler |
1.8% |
2.3% |
2.5% |
Ford |
11.6% |
11.5% |
11.8% |
GM |
17.0% |
16.1% |
17.7% |
Honda |
10.4% |
11.3% |
9.3% |
Hyundai |
4.1% |
4.1% |
4.4% |
Kia |
4.3% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
Nissan |
6.1% |
6.5% |
5.9% |
Stellantis |
11.7% |
11.2% |
11.3% |
Subaru |
4.5% |
4.6% |
4.5% |
Tesla |
2.3% |
1.9% |
2.5% |
Toyota |
16.0% |
15.3% |
15.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.4% |
4.3% |
4.5% |
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Feb 2021 Forecast |
Feb 2020 Actual |
Jan 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$59,919 |
$57,587 |
$57,922 |
4.0% |
3.4% |
Daimler |
$62,806 |
$61,188 |
$62,387 |
2.6% |
0.7% |
Ford |
$44,925 |
$42,465 |
$43,535 |
5.8% |
3.2% |
GM |
$42,797 |
$39,979 |
$42,045 |
7.0% |
1.8% |
Honda |
$31,166 |
$29,398 |
$31,059 |
6.0% |
0.3% |
Hyundai |
$31,037 |
$29,279 |
$31,073 |
6.0% |
-0.1% |
Kia |
$28,796 |
$25,988 |
$28,233 |
10.8% |
2.0% |
Nissan |
$30,087 |
$28,470 |
$29,304 |
5.7% |
2.7% |
Stellantis |
$43,903 |
$40,100 |
$42,713 |
9.5% |
2.8% |
Subaru |
$30,701 |
$30,007 |
$30,616 |
2.3% |
0.3% |
Toyota |
$35,135 |
$33,429 |
$34,890 |
5.1% |
0.7% |
Volkswagen Group |
$43,870 |
$40,286 |
$43,358 |
8.9% |
1.2% |
Industry |
$38,075 |
$35,709 |
$37,558 |
6.6% |
1.4% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Feb 2021 Forecast |
Feb 2020 Actual |
Jan 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
|
BMW |
$4,497 |
$5,821 |
$5,177 |
-22.8% |
-13.1% |
|
Daimler |
$3,740 |
$6,246 |
$4,438 |
-40.1% |
-15.7% |
|
Ford |
$3,472 |
$4,918 |
$4,441 |
-29.4% |
-21.8% |
|
GM |
$4,710 |
$5,688 |
$4,944 |
-17.2% |
-4.7% |
|
Honda |
$2,290 |
$2,559 |
$2,363 |
-10.5% |
-3.1% |
|
Hyundai |
$2,205 |
$3,078 |
$2,558 |
-28.4% |
-13.8% |
|
Kia |
$2,825 |
$3,686 |
$2,999 |
-23.4% |
-5.8% |
|
Nissan |
$3,543 |
$4,749 |
$4,510 |
-25.4% |
-21.4% |
|
Stellantis |
$4,186 |
$5,093 |
$4,642 |
-17.8% |
-9.8% |
|
Subaru |
$1,401 |
$1,244 |
$1,505 |
12.6% |
-6.9% |
|
Toyota |
$2,363 |
$2,649 |
$2,616 |
-10.8% |
-9.7% |
|
Volkswagen Group |
$3,113 |
$4,435 |
$4,153 |
-29.8% |
-25.1% |
|
Industry |
$3,356 |
$4,177 |
$3,787 |
-19.7% |
-11.4% |
|
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Feb 2021 Forecast |
Feb 2020 Actual |
Jan 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
|
BMW |
7.5% |
10.1% |
8.9% |
-25.8% |
-16.0% |
|
Daimler |
6.0% |
10.2% |
7.1% |
-41.7% |
-16.3% |
|
Ford |
7.7% |
11.6% |
10.2% |
-33.3% |
-24.3% |
|
GM |
11.0% |
14.2% |
11.8% |
-22.6% |
-6.4% |
|
Honda |
7.3% |
8.7% |
7.6% |
-15.6% |
-3.4% |
|
Hyundai |
7.1% |
10.5% |
8.2% |
-32.4% |
-13.7% |
|
Kia |
9.8% |
14.2% |
10.6% |
-30.8% |
-7.6% |
|
Nissan |
11.8% |
16.7% |
15.4% |
-29.4% |
-23.5% |
|
Stellantis |
9.5% |
12.7% |
10.9% |
-24.9% |
-12.3% |
|
Subaru |
4.6% |
4.1% |
4.9% |
10.0% |
-7.2% |
|
Toyota |
6.7% |
7.9% |
7.5% |
-15.1% |
-10.3% |
|
Volkswagen Group |
7.1% |
11.0% |
9.6% |
-35.5% |
-25.9% |
|
Industry |
8.8% |
11.7% |
10.1% |
-24.6% |
-12.6% |
|
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas, and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: [email protected]
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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.
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