"After nine months of consecutive increases in new vehicle transaction prices, we are finally seeing a slight decrease in January. While December often represents a peak due to a richer vehicle mix, at the brand level the declines could also point to a slight recovery in supply. As the supply of chips recovers we expect to see manufacturers balance their vehicle mix back to historic norms," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, industry conditions remain volatile and we'll need to see these and other trends continue for several months, which will likely take the bulk of the year."
"Last month we saw industry sales decline 25% year-over-year, this month we are expecting sales to be down 9%. We're cautiously optimistic due to the slight sales increase this month compared to the end of last year along with the small uptick in inventory, however the chip shortage will continue to affect the industry in 2022," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.
Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):
- Total sales for January 2022 are expected to be down 9% from a year ago and down 7% from December 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for January 2022 are expected to be down 5% from a year ago and on par with December 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Incentive spend is down 57% from last year.
- Average transaction price is projected to be up 16% from a year ago and down about 2% from December 2021.
- Total SAAR is expected to be down 9% from a year ago at 15.3 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for January 2022 are expected to reach 2.9 million, down 9% from a year ago and down 2% from December 2021.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.4%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for January 2022 is 69 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 70 months.
- Full year 2022 sales are expected at 15.4 million units
Total Industry Unit Sales |
|
|
Manufacturer |
Jan 2022 Forecast |
Jan 2021 Actual |
Dec 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
31,232 |
19,740 |
42,528 |
58.2% |
58.2% |
-26.6% |
-17.4% |
Daimler |
24,112 |
25,268 |
31,932 |
-4.6% |
-4.6% |
-24.5% |
-15.0% |
Ford |
147,635 |
142,577 |
172,257 |
3.5% |
3.5% |
-14.3% |
-3.6% |
GM |
131,911 |
201,954 |
163,990 |
-34.7% |
-34.7% |
-19.6% |
-9.5% |
Honda |
81,359 |
92,225 |
105,068 |
-11.8% |
-11.8% |
-22.6% |
-12.9% |
Hyundai |
50,297 |
46,208 |
56,339 |
8.8% |
8.8% |
-10.7% |
0.4% |
Kia |
38,926 |
44,965 |
48,506 |
-13.4% |
-13.4% |
-19.8% |
-9.7% |
Nissan |
61,977 |
71,081 |
77,949 |
-12.8% |
-12.8% |
-20.5% |
-10.6% |
Stellantis |
124,901 |
134,406 |
155,138 |
-7.1% |
-7.1% |
-19.5% |
-9.4% |
Subaru |
47,403 |
46,400 |
51,146 |
2.2% |
2.2% |
-7.3% |
4.3% |
Tesla |
36,300 |
24,700 |
47,253 |
47.0% |
47.0% |
-23.2% |
-13.6% |
Toyota |
150,197 |
167,936 |
173,847 |
-10.6% |
-10.6% |
-13.6% |
-2.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
35,482 |
44,953 |
48,011 |
-21.1% |
-21.1% |
-26.1% |
-16.9% |
Industry |
1,006,325 |
1,109,578 |
1,220,129 |
-9.3% |
-9.3% |
-17.5% |
-7.2% |
Retail Unit Sales |
|
|
Manufacturer |
Jan 2022 Forecast |
Jan 2021 Actual |
Dec 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
30,667 |
18,855 |
41,797 |
62.6% |
62.6% |
-26.6% |
-17.5% |
Daimler |
23,066 |
24,264 |
31,279 |
-4.9% |
-4.9% |
-26.3% |
-17.0% |
Ford |
111,651 |
117,760 |
139,716 |
-5.2% |
-5.2% |
-20.1% |
-10.1% |
GM |
108,071 |
177,847 |
142,878 |
-39.2% |
-39.2% |
-24.4% |
-14.9% |
Honda |
80,331 |
91,603 |
104,627 |
-12.3% |
-12.3% |
-23.2% |
-13.6% |
Hyundai |
49,163 |
42,147 |
55,737 |
16.6% |
16.6% |
-11.8% |
-0.8% |
Kia |
34,834 |
42,764 |
46,701 |
-18.5% |
-18.5% |
-25.4% |
-16.1% |
Nissan |
53,802 |
55,905 |
64,355 |
-3.8% |
-3.8% |
-16.4% |
-5.9% |
Stellantis |
105,465 |
112,244 |
128,515 |
-6.0% |
-6.0% |
-17.9% |
-7.7% |
Subaru |
46,149 |
45,357 |
49,239 |
1.7% |
1.7% |
-6.3% |
5.4% |
Tesla |
36,115 |
24,700 |
47,237 |
46.2% |
46.2% |
-23.5% |
-14.0% |
Toyota |
141,259 |
156,997 |
153,815 |
-10.0% |
-10.0% |
-8.2% |
3.3% |
Volkswagen Group |
34,693 |
39,304 |
47,346 |
-11.7% |
-11.7% |
-26.7% |
-17.6% |
Industry |
893,077 |
990,079 |
1,092,517 |
-9.8% |
-9.8% |
-18.3% |
-8.0% |
Fleet Unit Sales |
|
|
Manufacturer |
Jan 2022 Forecast |
Jan 2021 Actual |
Dec 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
565 |
885 |
731 |
-36.2% |
-36.2% |
-22.7% |
-13.1% |
Daimler |
1,046 |
1,004 |
653 |
4.2% |
4.2% |
60.1% |
80.2% |
Ford |
35,984 |
24,817 |
32,541 |
45.0% |
45.0% |
10.6% |
24.4% |
GM |
23,840 |
24,107 |
21,112 |
-1.1% |
-1.1% |
12.9% |
27.0% |
Honda |
1,028 |
622 |
441 |
65.2% |
65.2% |
133.3% |
162.4% |
Hyundai |
1,134 |
4,061 |
602 |
-72.1% |
-72.1% |
88.3% |
111.8% |
Kia |
4,092 |
2,201 |
1,805 |
85.9% |
85.9% |
126.8% |
155.1% |
Nissan |
8,175 |
15,176 |
13,594 |
-46.1% |
-46.1% |
-39.9% |
-32.3% |
Stellantis |
19,436 |
22,162 |
26,623 |
-12.3% |
-12.3% |
-27.0% |
-17.9% |
Subaru |
1,254 |
1,043 |
1,907 |
20.2% |
20.2% |
-34.2% |
-26.0% |
Tesla |
185 |
- |
16 |
|
|
1048.3% |
1191.9% |
Toyota |
8,938 |
10,939 |
20,032 |
-18.3% |
-18.3% |
-55.4% |
-49.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
789 |
5,649 |
665 |
-86.0% |
-86.0% |
18.6% |
33.5% |
Industry |
113,248 |
119,499 |
127,612 |
-5.2% |
-5.2% |
-11.3% |
-0.2% |
Fleet Penetration |
Manufacturer |
Jan 2022 Forecast |
Jan 2021 Actual |
Dec 2021 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
1.8% |
4.5% |
1.7% |
-59.6% |
5.2% |
Daimler |
4.3% |
4.0% |
2.0% |
9.2% |
112.1% |
Ford |
24.4% |
17.4% |
18.9% |
40.0% |
29.0% |
GM |
18.1% |
11.9% |
12.9% |
51.4% |
40.4% |
Honda |
1.3% |
0.7% |
0.4% |
87.3% |
201.2% |
Hyundai |
2.3% |
8.8% |
1.1% |
-74.3% |
110.9% |
Kia |
10.5% |
4.9% |
3.7% |
114.8% |
182.6% |
Nissan |
13.2% |
21.4% |
17.4% |
-38.2% |
-24.4% |
Stellantis |
15.6% |
16.5% |
17.2% |
-5.6% |
-9.3% |
Subaru |
2.6% |
2.2% |
3.7% |
17.7% |
-29.0% |
Tesla |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
1394.8% |
Toyota |
6.0% |
6.5% |
11.5% |
-8.6% |
-48.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
2.2% |
12.6% |
1.4% |
-82.3% |
60.5% |
Industry |
11.3% |
10.8% |
10.5% |
4.5% |
7.6% |
Total Market Share |
Manufacturer |
Jan 2022 Forecast |
Jan 2021 Actual |
Dec 2021 Actual |
BMW |
3.1% |
1.8% |
3.5% |
Daimler |
2.4% |
2.3% |
2.6% |
Ford |
14.7% |
12.8% |
14.1% |
GM |
13.1% |
18.2% |
13.4% |
Honda |
8.1% |
8.3% |
8.6% |
Hyundai |
5.0% |
4.2% |
4.6% |
Kia |
3.9% |
4.1% |
4.0% |
Nissan |
6.2% |
6.4% |
6.4% |
Stellantis |
12.4% |
12.1% |
12.7% |
Subaru |
4.7% |
4.2% |
4.2% |
Tesla |
3.6% |
2.2% |
3.9% |
Toyota |
14.9% |
15.1% |
14.2% |
Volkswagen Group |
3.5% |
4.1% |
3.9% |
|
95.6% |
95.7% |
96.2% |
Retail Market Share |
Manufacturer |
Jan 2022 Forecast |
Jan 2021 Actual |
Dec 2021 Actual |
BMW |
3.4% |
1.9% |
3.8% |
Daimler |
2.6% |
2.5% |
2.9% |
Ford |
12.5% |
11.9% |
12.8% |
GM |
12.1% |
18.0% |
13.1% |
Honda |
9.0% |
9.3% |
9.6% |
Hyundai |
5.5% |
4.3% |
5.1% |
Kia |
3.9% |
4.3% |
4.3% |
Nissan |
6.0% |
5.6% |
5.9% |
Stellantis |
11.8% |
11.3% |
11.8% |
Subaru |
5.2% |
4.6% |
4.5% |
Tesla |
4.0% |
2.5% |
4.3% |
Toyota |
15.8% |
15.9% |
14.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
3.9% |
4.0% |
4.3% |
|
95.8% |
95.9% |
96.4% |
ATP |
|
|
Manufacturer |
Jan 2022 Forecast |
Jan 2021 Actual |
Dec 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$60,656 |
$58,961 |
$62,883 |
2.9% |
-3.5% |
Daimler |
$74,874 |
$63,719 |
$72,491 |
17.5% |
3.3% |
Ford |
$49,360 |
$44,272 |
$49,910 |
11.5% |
-1.1% |
GM |
$51,967 |
$42,996 |
$54,114 |
20.9% |
-4.0% |
Honda |
$35,060 |
$30,407 |
$34,927 |
15.3% |
0.4% |
Hyundai |
$36,100 |
$32,002 |
$35,988 |
12.8% |
0.3% |
Kia |
$34,408 |
$29,180 |
$32,677 |
17.9% |
5.3% |
Nissan |
$34,641 |
$28,736 |
$34,240 |
20.5% |
1.2% |
Stellantis |
$52,011 |
$42,489 |
$51,565 |
22.4% |
0.9% |
Subaru |
$35,659 |
$30,910 |
$35,003 |
15.4% |
1.9% |
Toyota |
$40,158 |
$35,705 |
$40,372 |
12.5% |
-0.5% |
Volkswagen Group |
$44,020 |
$39,558 |
$44,030 |
11.3% |
0.0% |
Industry |
$43,954 |
$37,801 |
$44,715 |
16.3% |
-1.7% |
|
$6,153 |
|
-$761 |
|
|
Incentives |
|
|
Manufacturer |
Jan 2022 Forecast |
Jan 2021 Actual |
Dec 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$2,607 |
$5,178 |
$3,224 |
-49.7% |
-19.1% |
Daimler |
$1,532 |
$3,948 |
$2,257 |
-61.2% |
-32.1% |
Ford |
$1,610 |
$3,333 |
$2,205 |
-51.7% |
-27.0% |
GM |
$1,519 |
$4,516 |
$1,893 |
-66.4% |
-19.8% |
Honda |
$1,320 |
$2,307 |
$1,393 |
-42.8% |
-5.2% |
Hyundai |
$928 |
$2,267 |
$1,197 |
-59.1% |
-22.5% |
Kia |
$1,703 |
$2,677 |
$1,712 |
-36.4% |
-0.5% |
Nissan |
$1,519 |
$3,815 |
$2,012 |
-60.2% |
-24.5% |
Stellantis |
$1,928 |
$4,616 |
$2,103 |
-58.2% |
-8.3% |
Subaru |
$881 |
$1,321 |
$1,037 |
-33.3% |
-15.1% |
Toyota |
$1,054 |
$2,562 |
$1,220 |
-58.9% |
-13.7% |
Volkswagen Group |
$1,882 |
$3,641 |
$2,064 |
-48.3% |
-8.8% |
Industry |
$1,479 |
$3,435 |
$1,816 |
-56.9% |
-18.5% |
|
-$1,956 |
|
-$337 |
|
|
Incentives as % of ATP |
|
|
Manufacturer |
Jan 2022 Forecast |
Jan 2021 Actual |
Dec 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
4.3% |
8.8% |
5.1% |
-51.1% |
-16.2% |
Daimler |
2.0% |
6.2% |
3.1% |
-67.0% |
-34.3% |
Ford |
3.3% |
7.5% |
4.4% |
-56.7% |
-26.2% |
GM |
2.9% |
10.5% |
3.5% |
-72.2% |
-16.5% |
Honda |
3.8% |
7.6% |
4.0% |
-50.4% |
-5.5% |
Hyundai |
2.6% |
7.1% |
3.3% |
-63.7% |
-22.8% |
Kia |
4.9% |
9.2% |
5.2% |
-46.1% |
-5.5% |
Nissan |
4.4% |
13.3% |
5.9% |
-67.0% |
-25.4% |
Stellantis |
3.7% |
10.9% |
4.1% |
-65.9% |
-9.1% |
Subaru |
2.5% |
4.3% |
3.0% |
-42.2% |
-16.6% |
Toyota |
2.6% |
7.2% |
3.0% |
-63.4% |
-13.2% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.3% |
9.2% |
4.7% |
-53.5% |
-8.8% |
Industry |
3.4% |
9.1% |
4.1% |
-63.0% |
-17.1% |
Revenue |
|
|
Manufacturer |
Jan 2022 Forecast |
Jan 2021 Actual |
Dec 2021 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
Industry |
$44,231,667,538 |
$41,942,893,567 |
$54,557,483,352 |
5.5% |
-18.9% |
(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
SOURCE TrueCar.com
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