Understand Tullow Oil's reserve and production trajectory and why this makes temporal seniority particularly important, favouring the $ 21s especially following the announced sale of Tullow's Uganda assets
Understand why Tullow is unlikely to restructure until at least FY 2022
Understand how sensitive FY 2022 liquidity is to the realised Brent crude price
Understand what shocks to the Brent forward curve and the reserve / production trajectory are needed to generate a high enough valuation for Tullow to cover also the $22s and $25s and generate material upside for the equity
Understand how much Tullow's stake in Blocks 10 BA, 10 BB and 13T in the South Lokichar Basin in Kenya could be worth
Detailed liquidity analysis and projections - RBL commitment amortisation and capacity re-determination, including potential for re-sizing; sensitivity to Brent prices; asset sale potential
Financial projections, valuation (DCF and peer multiples) and sensitivities
What would it take to break liquidity by maturity of the $ 21s and why is this unlikely?
What would it take to ensure sufficient liquidity for Tullow to trade through FY 2022 and beyond the maturity of the $22s?
Is there a case for owning the $22s regardless of FY 2022 liquidity sensitivity, whether as a call option on oil prices or as a call option on Tullow's Kenya assets or as a call option on Tullow's reserve replenishment beyond FY 2022 with the fallback of a potential (Publisher assumption) exchange offer with part cash repayment and part debt extension (potentially with some provision for enhanced capital structure / group structure positioning for consenting holders, whilst respecting Tullow's indebtedness and lien covenants)?
Are press reports suggesting valuations for Tullow's stake in its Kenya assets of $625m to $1,000m credible?
How concerned are we about post plateau reserve and production declines at Tullow's operated fields in Ghana (Jubilee and TEN) and what are the prospects for reserve replenishment?
How does the RBL Facility work - commitment amortisation, capacity re-determination and prospects for renewal of the facility at or before its maturity in Nov-24?
Could Tullow avoid a restructuring altogether and navigate its way through its final debt maturity in 2025?