Turkey's Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Drug Market Projected to Grow at 7 Percent Annually Through 2017

Changes in Reimbursement Policy and an Increasing Incident Population Will Drive Growth Despite Price Cuts in Market, According to a New Report from Decision Resources

Jun 13, 2013, 09:00 ET from Decision Resources

BURLINGTON, Mass., June 13, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, forecasts that, from 2012 to 2017, the non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) market in Turkey will increase at an annual rate of 7 percent, reaching $73 million in 2017.

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The Emerging Markets report, Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer in Turkey, also finds that recent changes in reimbursement policy will lead to continued uptake of two of the most expensive current therapies, Roche's Tarceva and pemetrexed (Eli Lilly's Alimta, generics), which will drive growth in this market. The market will also be sustained by a growing incident population, by the launch of several new branded therapies and by persistent use of branded agents.

Between 2012 and 2017, eight novel branded NSCLC therapies will launch in Turkey--Pfizer's Xalkori (which launched in Turkey in April 2013), Celgene's Abraxane, Boehringer Ingelheim's Tomtovok, Pfizer's dacomitinib, Novartis's LDK-378, Bristol-Myers Squibb's nivolumab, Roche's MetMab and Eisai's Halaven.  Although the number of patients treated with these agents will be smaller compared to the world's major markets, these therapies will together comprise 18 percent of the total NSCLC market in 2017, owing to their high price, even following the application of Turkey's statutory discounts.

The report, which includes extensive primary research with Turkish oncologists, also finds that the number of incident cases of NSCLC in Turkey will increase by nearly 30 percent between 2012 and 2022, because of an increasing and aging population and the strong association between risk and age.

"The drug price cuts implemented by the Turkish government have an unquestionable constraining effect on the market," said Decision Resources Analyst Natalia Reoutova, MA, MSc. "But they also indirectly offer protection from the rampant generic erosion seen in some other pharmaceutical markets, as the prices of the original agent and its generic versions in Turkey are often so close that there is no imperative for oncologists to use generics. Because most interviewed Turkish oncologists prefer the original brands, their share remains high in this market."

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