Univfy® Publishes Study in Nature Communications, Validates Univfy Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Machine Learning (ML) Platform's Superior In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) Live Birth Predictions, Key to Improving IVF Access, Affordability and Clinical Outcomes

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New research highlights Univfy IVF live birth prediction models performing significantly better than US registry-based model using model metrics key to improving IVF access, affordability and clinical outcomes.

SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, Calif., April 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Univfy, a leading innovator in fertility and health AI, today announced the publication of peer-reviewed research in Nature Communications demonstrating clinic-level, real-world validation of its proprietary IVF live birth prediction models and model metrics that are requisites of economic and clinical solutions to improve IVF access, affordability and clinical outcomes.  Specifically, the study, titled "Machine learning center-specific models show improved live birth predictions over US national registry-based model" shows Univfy models outperformed US national registry model with significant improvements in model metrics, F1 score (the harmonic mean of precision and recall) and precision-recall area-under-the-curve (PR AUC). Beyond improved accuracy, these metrics measure a model's ability to minimize false positives and false negatives, a quality that is critical in real-world economic solutions including value-based care and actuarial models.  To contextualize, of the 4,645 patients and 6 centers analyzed in the study, Univfy models correctly predicted that 76% of patients had first-cycle IVF live birth probabilities (LBP) of 50% or greater. Most importantly, 23% of patients correctly predicted to have LBP ≥ 50% by Univfy models were given lower LBPs by the US national registry model. Further, Univfy correctly predicted that 11% of patients had LBP ≥ 75% (actual live birth rate 81%), whereas the US national registry model did not identify any of them as having LBP ≥ 75%. 

This publication marks a significant milestone in validating the science behind the Univfy AI/ML Platform and its potential to enable economic solutions, such as value-based IVF care, that are key to expanding IVF access and affordability.  This study builds upon prior research showing 2-3x improvement in IVF utilization with Univfy^® PreIVF Report-based patient counseling and AI/ML IVF live birth prediction model validation for centers in the US, UK and EU, demonstrating the value of using locally validated AI-powered solutions in real-world clinical settings.

"This publication is a testament to the rigorous science behind the Univfy AI/ML Platform enabling it to correctly predict the excellent IVF outcomes that are achieved by our collaborators and the broader IVF ecosystem yet are conventionally under-appreciated," said Dr. Mylene Yao, CEO and Cofounder of Univfy. "Univfy was founded to improve patient-centric care, especially in supporting patient IVF prognostic counseling. Through our work to improve IVF cost-success transparency, we have now established a platform that also enables scaled production of validated economic solutions that are not only win-win for patients, providers and healthcare stakeholders but are urgently needed to help more women and couples to access and afford IVF to have a family."

Stakeholder Benefits From Key Findings

• For patients: Improved IVF cost-success transparency to inform fertility care and family-building decisions.
• For healthcare providers: Enhanced patient-counseling and simplified clinical workflow and efficiency to avoid underestimation of IVF efficacy and treatment delays.
• For health insurers & benefits programs:  Improved members' experience and transparency, provider support and IVF coverage expansion with predictability and cost-savings.

About Univfy
Univfy, a Series B company based in the San Francisco Bay Area, is improving IVF success, access and affordability. Developed by Stanford University researchers, the proprietary Univfy AI/ML Platform delivers an accurate, personalized and validated pre-treatment probability of having a baby from IVF and other treatment options to empower each patient's decision-making. The Univfy platform also enables providers to offer value-based IVF pricing at scale to make IVF more affordable. Univfy has commercialized provider solutions in the US, UK and EU via a B2B model to support providers in patient counseling, clinical analytics, and business analytics including delivery of customer relationship management tools. The Univfy AI/ML Platform is scaled to support enterprise level health plans and benefits programs to realize cost-savings by improving patient-centric care and enabling value-based IVF care delivery. The Univfy AI/ML Platform, technology and products are protected by Univfy's US & global intellectual property portfolio with issued and pending patents and copyrights.

About Infertility, IVF and the IVF Market
Infertility refers to the need for medical care to have a baby. Infertility affects one in six people of reproductive age or over 200 million (M) globally, including ~7-10M in the US, ~25M in the EU, ~3-5M in the UK, and ~186M in other countries. Overall, an estimated ~4M IVF treatments are performed worldwide each year, resulting in ~1M+ babies born annually. In the US, ~2% of babies born per year are conceived through IVF.  Although IVF is safe and efficacious, multiple treatments may be needed. High IVF costs, lack of insurance coverage and no guarantee of success are key barriers resulting in a dismal IVF utilization rate of ~3% in the US as fertility patients struggle to afford and access IVF.  

The above estimates are based on reports by the World Health Organization (WHO), the American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM), RESOLVE: The National Infertility Association, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the European Society for Human and Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE) and others.  See the complete list of references here.

The global and US IVF market has undergone significant consolidation by private equity, with the IVF market size estimated at ~USD $25B (2023) and projected to reach ~USD $44B by 2033, with a CAGR of 5.57% from 2024-2033 (Biospace, April 2024). 

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