Up to $45 billion in investments will be required to meet global demand for sustainable aviation fuel, according to new report from the World Economic Forum and Kearney

-    Demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will reach 17 million tons per year by 2030.
-   The capital required could range from $19 billion to $45 billion, depending on the technology mix.

LONDON, Feb. 26, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- A new study by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and global management consulting firm Kearney reveals that the total capital expenditures required to meet SAF demand by 2030 could reach $45 billion.

According to the new report, Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Case Studies and Implications for Investment, global SAF demand is expected to reach 17 million tons per year by 2030, representing about 5 percent of total jet fuel consumption. At the end of 2024, production capacity reached 4.4 million tons per year, but total capacity is expected to expand by another 6.9 million tons per year based on confirmed facility expansions and new refineries opening. The research also reveals that reaching the anticipated level of demand in 2030 will require an additional 5.8 million tons of production capacity to secure financial investment decisions by 2026.

Scaling up SAF requires action now

Considering the 5.8 million tons of required additional production capacity and the average investment costs, the total capex needed to meet SAF demand is estimated to be between $19 billion and $45 billion, depending on the technology mix, according to the study, which is part of the WEF's Airports of Tomorrow initiative.

The capital landscape for SAF investments is complex, with the refinery life cycle requiring effective navigation of the policy, market, technology and feedstock risks, particularly through long-term policy consistency and feedstock security needed to attract capital.

10 ways to bolster SAF investments

The joint report identifies 10 financial methods that could improve SAF investments, calling on producers, governments, and investors to work together to provide the best mix of approaches to alleviate the risks:

• Research and innovation grants for early-stage, high-risk SAF technologies to reduce upfront costs
• Multilateral development bank support, particularly in developing regions with complex regulatory landscapes
• Guarantees and insurance, such as loan guarantees, first-loss capital, and insurance solutions
• Strategic investments, such as collaboration with airlines, airports, original equipment manufacturers, and energy players to provide demand assurance and foster a supportive ecosystem
• Long-term offtake agreements to provide stable revenue and alleviate demand uncertainty
• Book-and-claim mechanisms that allow corporate travelers to take an active role in funding SAF
• Green bonds tied to SAF production to serve as a powerful tool for raising impact-driven capital
• Private equity capital and operational expertise to accelerate commercialization and scale SAF projects
• Infrastructure investors with lower capital costs and a long-term investment horizon
• Tolling models that mitigate market risks by charging a fixed fee for refinery capacity while customers supply feedstock and retain ownership

New greenfield SAF refineries will be essential if the industry expects to meet its 2030 climate goals. The combination of collaboration structures and financing models do not work in isolation. To effectively scale up SAF, project developers will need to explore as many of these 10 avenues as possible.

"If we are serious about hitting SAF targets by 2030, SAF producers, governments, and investors will need to work together to de-risk production and scale employment," Kearney's Global Sustainability Director Claudia Galea said. "There are a number of financing roadblocks for SAF to scale up effectively. Addressing these barriers will require a multifaceted approach with technological innovation, policy frameworks, and innovative financial structures to enhance the investment appeal for SAF projects across their life cycle."

World Economic Forum Aviation Decarbonization Lead Giorgio Parolini added, "Banks will often view SAF projects as high risk due to their novelty, extended timelines, and reliance on emerging technologies. Project developers must bear this in mind when attempting to attract capital. For SAF to reach scalable production, a shift in financing mechanisms will be necessary, leveraging both private and public capital to mitigate the perceived risks and catalyze a substantial cash flow into the sector."

Methodology

Kearney's analysis is based on voluntarily announced 2030 SAF commitments from the following carriers: Scandinavian Airlines/SAS (about 35 percent), FedEx (30 percent), UPS (30 percent), DHL (30 percent), Airbus (30 percent), Norwegian (20 percent), Ryanair (12.5 percent), American Airlines (10 percent), Delta Air Lines (10 percent), Air France-KLM (10 percent), International Airlines Group/IAG (10 percent), Southwest Airlines (10 percent), Qatar Airways (10 percent), All Nippon Airways/ANA (10 percent), Cathay Pacific (10 percent), Japan Airlines/JAL (10 percent), Qantas (10 percent), JetBlue (10 percent), Alaska Airlines (10 percent), WizzAir (10 percent), TAP Air Portugal (10 percent), Virgin Atlantic (10 percent), Finnair (10 percent), Hawaiian Airlines (10 percent), SkyWest Airlines (10 percent), United Airlines (10 percent), Lufthansa Group (5 percent), Singapore Airlines (5 percent), Malaysia Airlines (5 percent), Aeromexico (5 percent), Philippine Airlines (5 percent), GOL Airlines (1 percent in 2025), and AirCanada (1 percent in 2025).

About Kearney

Kearney is a leading global management consulting firm. For nearly 100 years, we have been a trusted advisor to C-suites, government bodies, and nonprofit organizations. Our people make us who we are. Driven to be the difference between a big idea and making it happen, we work alongside our clients to regenerate their businesses to create a future that works for everyone.

kearney.com

About the World Economic Forum

The World Economic Forum, committed to improving the state of the world, is the international organization for public–private cooperation. The WEF engages the foremost political, business, and other leaders of society to shape global, regional, and industry agendas.

weforum.org

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SOURCE Kearney