Uplink Traffic for AI Will Break the 5G Network

Mobile Experts releases new modeling tool and report

CAMPBELL, Calif., Aug. 28, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Mobile Experts Inc. released a new service this week, in which the market research firm investigates the impact of AI-based applications on the 5G network. Put simply, the model predicts that "AI Assistants" and other AI-enhanced applications will drive mobile data traffic beyond the available capacity. The first report on this topic is available here.

The mobile network is designed to handle much higher "downlink" traffic (from the tower to the phone) than "uplink" traffic (from the phone to the tower). This arrangement works well for streaming video and web surfing, but new AI-Assistants such as Siri, Google Assistant, and others will drive an increase in uplink traffic that is unprecedented. The anticipated release of Gen-AI enhancements of Siri during the next few weeks could be a turning point.

So far, ChatGPT and other AI tools have not made a serious impact on the mobile network, as the data sent between device and cloud has been mostly text and images, which represent a light load on the network. As AI is increasingly applied to video, this will change and a much greater load will be placed on the network to upload tremendous amounts of video content.

Augmented reality applications are also getting a boost from AI processing in the cloud. These two technologies are converging rapidly, and a number of navigation, fashion, architectural, and other applications are emerging that will also drive up significant video upload demand.

Much of the processing for AI applications on smartphones is performed on board—in other words, the computing is done on the phone itself. But video and more sophisticated AI models are driving the processing to the cloud, which is changing the impact on 5G networks.

"We now expect to see a shortfall in mobile capacity in the 2027 to 2028 timeframe," commented Joe Madden, Principal Analyst at Mobile Experts. "The growth rate of mobile traffic has slowed down recently, but we're anticipating that uplink data growth will accelerate starting in 2027. The network will be vulnerable to any 'viral' AR game or popular Gen-AI application in the 2028-2030 timeframe. By 2030, 6G capacity will be crucial to keep the network running."

These applications and their impact are summarized in new calculations by Mobile Experts that compare the expected traffic load with the capacity of the 5G network. The initial report is available now. Contact Mobile Experts directly for access to the Excel-based version of the demand/capacity modeling tool.

About Mobile Experts Inc.:
Mobile Experts techno-market analysis is used by more than 150 suppliers in the mobile/wireless industry, as well as multiple mobile operators, hyperscalers, and managed service providers.  MEXP was the only analyst firm to correctly predict the failure of femtocells and the use of small cells for capacity in 2011, and was the only firm to predict the rise of 5G FWA as early as 2015.    

Mobile Experts combines a deep-dive technical approach with hard-nosed economic analysis to predict the long-term future of the mobile industry. Recent publications focus on Industrial Private Cellular, Macro and Massive MIMO Base Stations, Virtual RAN, AI impact on RAN Capacity, Small Cells, 5G Millimeter Wave,  Private Cellular Managed Services, FWA, and more. 

Contact:
Rachel Winningham
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+1 (408) 374-0690
www.mobile-experts.net

SOURCE Mobile Experts Inc.