US at risk of a diminished future, new A.T. Kearney report finds

A.T. Kearney's assessment of these factors and their potential trajectories over the short term—positive and negative— led to the development of four highly differentiated future scenarios (figure 1) that represent the distinct possibilities the United States imminently faces.

The initial America@250 report, released in April 2016, argued that the future of the United States was as uncertain as it had been at previous turning points in US history, such as Watergate, the Cold War, the Great Depression, and even the Civil War.

"Well before the 2016 presidential election, one of the most divisive in US history, we warned that the United States had reached an historic inflection point. Subsequent events validated this assessment," said Paul Laudicina, report co-author and partner and chairman of A.T. Kearney's Global Business Policy Council.

In continuously assessing trends over the past several years, the latest America@250 report concludes that the country is regrettably heading toward a less desirable future called "The Perilous Fight", which represents relatively strong economic growth but low economic alignment. It depicts a future in which a tech sector-led economy and a rapidly growing gig economy thrive, but most Americans' lives are plagued by stagnant wage growth, political hyper-partisanship, and social fragmentation.

The report further concludes that growing geopolitical and trade tensions, compounded by declining US competitiveness in global talent attraction and innovation could drive us to an even less desirable future—the low-growth, low-alignment scenario of "Twilight's Last Gleaming." Econometric modeling of the various scenarios finds that the difference between this most positive future and the least positive could be as much as $5.6 trillion in annual GDP by 2026—nearly a 22 percent difference in the country's economic performance (enough of a difference to put another $15,000 back into every American's pocket).

Despite this assessment, the report finds reason for optimism that America can still seize the brightest possible future of "So Gallantly Streaming." But the path to that high-output future demands that leaders in core US institutions take concerted actions today in key investments and reforms, and achieve a new, unifying national vision that transcends gridlocked and deeply partisan federal politics.

"The leaders I've briefed on this report over recent years, from the West Wing to the boardrooms of some of the country's most important companies to average Americans we reached in focus groups and through opinion surveys across the expanse of the country, all feel America is underachieving its potential. They're extremely optimistic that we'll bounce back… but less certain of exactly when and how," said Laudicina. "The time is now. This is a call to action for all leaders—and to all Americans."

The report concludes with prescriptions for businesses to seize opportunity, offset risk, and navigate the current environment in a way that will lead to both corporate and broader societal success and move the country toward a brighter shared future. This includes navigating a period of sustained partisan gridlock in Washington, D.C.; dealing with the continued "islandization" of the global economy and the forces of political populism (the subject of a previous A.T. Kearney report); and addressing the new, enduring challenges of income inequality and lack of mobility in the United States.

About America@250

Launched in 2015 and led by global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney, America@250 is a call to action for leaders in business, government, and civil society to shape the best possible future for the United States. America@250 poses a simple, powerful question: What kind of a country will the United States be when it marks its 250^th anniversary eight years from now on July 4, 2026? America@250 has fostered a dialogue with some of the country's most important leaders about early indicators of change in the following areas: demographics, public policy, consumer values and preferences, technology, natural resources and environment, and globalization. Thought contributors to the initiative include Muhtar Kent, Janet Napolitano, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Chip Bergh, Joe Biden, among other influential leaders across public and private life.

About A.T. Kearney

A.T. Kearney is a leading global management consulting firm with offices in more than 40 countries. Since 1926, we have been trusted advisors to the world's foremost organizations. A.T. Kearney is a partner-owned firm, committed to helping clients achieve immediate impact and growing advantage on their most mission-critical issues.

To learn more about A.T. Kearney, please visit www.atkearney.com.

For more information contact:
Erin Weiss ([email protected])

SOURCE A.T. Kearney

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