US M&A momentum accelerates: EY-Parthenon forecasts 2026 deal activity to surpass 2025

Dealmakers shift from recovery to resilient growth, driven by strategic AI-driven transformation.

• Resilient volume growth: Total US deal volume (for deals more than $100 million) is expected to grow 3% in 2026, following an anticipated 9% rise in 2025.
• Surge in deal value will continue: Year-to-date deal value is up 36% over 2024, driven by a strong uptick in larger deals that will continue into 2026.
• Private equity ramps up: Private equity deals are expected to grow more than corporate M&A, backed by increased optimism from sponsors to expect exit activity.

NEW YORK, Oct. 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The US deal market is headed into strategic acceleration in 2026, led by high-value, transformative transactions, according to the EY-Parthenon October 2025 Deal Barometer. The proprietary forecast from EY-Parthenon practice anticipates continued deal volume growth in both corporate and private equity (PE) dealmaking through 2026, extending the rebound that started in 2024.

The Deal Barometer projects that the number of corporate M&A deals will increase 3% in 2026, following an anticipated 10% advance in 2025. PE deal volume is expected to rise 5% in 2026, following an 8% increase in 2025. This sustained activity and increased share of large deals are expected to translate into notably stronger growth in deal value.

"Dealmakers are leaning into transformative growth strategies, supported by resilient balance sheets and improving financing conditions," said Mitch Berlin, EY Americas Vice Chair, EY-Parthenon. "The winning CEOs are no longer waiting for global stability. They are moving with confidence to acquire capabilities, specifically AI and next-generation technology, that are rewiring their businesses for resilience and driving portfolio transformation."

Large transformational deals led M&A growth year to date
After a slow start to deal activity in 2025 constrained by policy uncertainty, there was a reacceleration in the third quarter. Year to date, US deal volume rose 9% compared with 2024, as favorable credit conditions, rising valuations and growing CEO confidence drove momentum ahead of 2026.

Deal value also has climbed up — 36% over 2024 — owing to a strong uptick in larger deals. The share of transactions exceeding $1 billion now accounts for 27% of deal activity in the first three quarters of 2025, up from a 22% average between 2016 and 2019, before the pandemic. Technology, financial services and life sciences are the most active sectors driving big-ticket deals, driven by an unwavering push to acquire AI-enabled capabilities and future-proof portfolios.

Renewed confidence in corporate M&A
US corporate dealmaking activity is up 10% in 2025, with deal value rising 23%, reflecting sustained momentum and a positive outlook. The Deal Barometer projects that corporate M&A volume will conclude 2025 about 10% above last year and experience 3% growth in 2026. This steady expansion underscores a constructive environment for strategic deals, supported by resilient corporate balance sheets and easing financial conditions.

Valuation alignment fuels private equity optimism 
Through September, deal volume rose 8% compared with 2024, and deal value surged 60%, driven by a notable increase in larger transactions and steady capital deployment amid improving financing conditions. Looking ahead, the Deal Barometer projects PE deal volume to conclude 2025 up 8% relative to the prior year, followed by a 5% gain in 2026.

One key signal of rising activity is the easing of valuation mismatches — noted as the biggest barrier to dealmaking in previous years. According to the EY Private Equity Pulse Q3 2025 report, two-thirds of respondents report that the valuation gap has narrowed. This growing flexibility is helping buyers and sellers find common ground and move forward with greater confidence.

Economic conditions support dealmaking growth
Despite elevated policy uncertainty, the macroeconomic backdrop remains broadly supportive of dealmaking. Overall, the US economic outlook remains measured. The EY-Parthenon economic outlook projects US real GDP growth of 2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with the unemployment rate expected to drift higher toward 4.8% as labor demand cools. Inflation is projected to peak near 3.2% before easing to 2.3% by year-end 2026.

While policy uncertainty and market volatility remain, resilient GDP growth and the Federal Reserve's signal for further rate cuts are easing financing conditions and encouraging strategic activity into 2026. CEOs should be prepared to plan longer timelines, model scenarios of impacts to tariffs and labor force costs, and structure agreements to share risks more effectively. These actions can help maintain certainty in deals and accelerate the closing process.

For more insights, visit the EY-Parthenon October 2025 Deal Barometer report.

About EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer
The EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer is a proprietary forecasting tool that integrates the EY Macroeconomics US economic outlook with real-time transaction data to project future trends in corporate M&A and private equity deal activity for US deals over $100 million. The framework shows an 82% correlation between PE deal activity and key economic indicators, providing business executives with an objective outlook for deal volume in the coming quarters.

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SOURCE EY