LONDON, Nov. 21, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The element of surprise has been a major advantage of viruses in emerging diseases, i.e., they strike without warning. Until now, epidemiologists had nothing to measure that might provide advance warning of a viral outbreak, resulting in suboptimal responses to both the H1N1 pandemic of 2009 and to Ebola currently.
That virus advantage of surprise has now been removed because virus gene structural changes have been found that invariably to date signal a coming outbreak one to two years in advance (1-6). The changes are quantitated by automated gene sequence analysis and visible by 3D X-ray crystallography. Replikins Ltd. announced today that there is now more time available to prepare public health responses and to make, adequately test and deliver specific therapeutic and vaccine defenses.
Gene Replikin increases (at p<0.001) have predicted outbreaks without error over the past decade, globally and locally, for Influenza and all other viruses analyzed. For example, the gene Replikin Count prediction in 2008 of the outbreak of the H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in 2009 (and recurrences since), H5N1 (Indonesia, Cambodia), and H3N2 (USA); for SARS and Mers-CoV; for Foot and Mouth Disease and Hand Foot and Mouth Disease (1-6); and now for Ebola 2014 (predicted in 2012-13), Dengue Fever and Chikungunya. In 2012 and 2013, the gene Replikin Count of the Chikungunya virus predicted its current clinical surge (Figure 1).
These predictions were made automatically by 'Big Data' software (FluForecastTM, GeneForecastTM), designed to detect and count in each virus gene, daily to annually, quantitative changes in particular gene structures - specific peptides called Replikins. For example, Figure 1 shows the gene Replikins analyses of all specimens of Chikungunya in the Americas present on the Pubmed data base (N=2,586). High Replikin counts (greater than 4.0) in the gene increased in advance of outbreaks, which have surged from South through Central and now into North America.
These studies have been submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. To obtain gene Replikin analyses of the above and future analyses, subscribe to Replikins Reports.
Contact: A. Borsanyi 646-320-8772; Email
1. Bogoch et al., "Prediction of specific virus outbreaks made from the increased concentration of a new class of virus genomic peptides, Replikins, Nature Precedings :doi:10.1038/ npre.2011.6279.1 : 22 Aug 2011. 2. Bogoch et al., Nature Precedings : doi:10.1038/npre.2012.7144.1; 3 Apr 2012. 3. Bogoch et al., Nature Precedings : doi:10.1038/npre.2011.6420.1 : 16 Sep 2011. 4. Bogoch et al., Nature Precedings: doi:10.1038/npre.2011.6952.1 : 1March 2012. 5. Replikins' website : 2006 - 2014. 6. Jackwood, M., Bogoch, S., Bogoch, E., "Efficacy of a Replikin Peptide Vaccine against Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza H5 Virus, Avian Diseases: Vol. 53, No. 4,pp. 613–617, 2009.