Will Youth Again Determine Presidential Election? Ask Bob Weiner, Former National Democratic Youth Registration Director, and Caitlin Harrison, 2010 Graduate & Analyst

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Feb 18, 2011, 03:25 ET

Iowa Caucuses Youth Involvement Could Show if Obama's Victory will be Repeated, Say Weiner and Harrison

WASHINGTON, Feb. 18, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- In an op-ed in today's Des Moines Register, "Youth vote helped elect Obama; will it be as important in 2012?" former Clinton White House Spokesperson Robert Weiner, in 1972 the Democratic Party's national youth voter registration director after the Constitution was amended to allow the 18-year-old vote, and Policy Analyst Caitlin Harrison, a 2010 James Madison University graduate, assert that the Iowa Caucuses' youth involvement could once again show if Obama's 2008 national victory will or will not be repeated.

Weiner and Harrison assert, "Iowa started the youth election phenomenon. Young people flooded the caucuses. In 2008, more than three times as many voters under 30 attended the Iowa caucus, a record 13 percent, as the four percent in 2004. Seventeen percent of youth voters participated 2008's primaries and caucuses. Voters under 30 made up 22 percent of Democratic caucus attendees and 11 percent of Republican caucus attendees."

They explain that "Obama's win was foreshadowed by the youth involvement at the Iowa Caucuses in 2008. According to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, 24 million youth ages 18-24 voted in the 2008 Presidential Elections, 51 percent of the group. Sixteen million (68 percent) of the 24 million voted for Obama, which made the difference in many close states. One of every seven voters nationwide was under 30. Headlines like MSNBC's trumpeted, 'Youth Vote May have been Key in Obama's Win.'

"Will youth be as important in the 2012 Presidential Elections as they were in 2008? Will they turn out as heavily at the outset in Iowa, and will they be as supportive of Obama now that they've seen him in action and not just as the promising candidate?

"If not, and if the turnout is lower the next go-round, the results could be quite different.

"The highest percent of eligible youth who actually voted remains the 52 percent during the 1972 Presidential Elections. The 2008 election had the second largest youth turnout (51%), 1992 won by Clinton the third largest (48%). Young voters, who had just received voting rights in 1971, registered and voted because they did not want to be killed in the Vietnam War, and they detested the draft's threat to them. Without the war and the draft, we would not have had such a large youth voter turnout.

"However, there are other overarching issues that young people care about today. Issue No. 1: their post-high school or college job. Unemployment is now 9 percent nationally.

"College tuitions, another big youth issue, are also at record highs. Obama took some helpful steps—removing banks from the student loan business and increasing Pell grants by a third. He budgeted $129 billion in new grants, loans and work-study. But with the U.S. fading from no. 1 to no. 9 in college graduation percentage worldwide, is it enough? And was Republican opposition to the student loan changes persuasive to keep youth for Obama?

"Bill Clinton played the saxophone on youth TV. He was perceived as vibrant and active. Should our next set of presidential candidates answer the ever-important boxers or briefs question? Should they play the saxophone or similar? Yes on both accounts.

"The campaign is about to begin. The primaries and caucuses are one year away. Presidential candidates must engage the crucial youth vote in the 2012 elections. It worked for Obama in 2008—he even attended an Usher event. Show concern and action on youth issues, understand and enjoy their culture—and you just might pull it off again," they conclude.

LINK TO ARTICLE: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20110218/OPINION01/102180330/0/QMAGAZINE/?odyssey=nav%7Chead

Contact: Bob Weiner/Gavriel Swerling 301-283-0821 or 202-306-1200

SOURCE Robert Weiner Associates