Winter Seasonality Causes Manhattan Condo Inventory and Sales Activity to Fall; Expect Market Chill to Continue Into 2015
Inventory declines 7.9 percent and pending sales decline 26 percent from October, according to the November StreetEasy Manhattan Condo Market Report
30 Dec, 2014, 09:00 ET
NEW YORK, Dec. 30, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --
- Total number of condos available in November fell 7.9 percent from October.
- Pending sales in November were down 26.1 percent from October's seasonal high.
- Condo sales prices were essentially flat in November, increasing 0.8 percent from October, according to the StreetEasy Condo Price Index.
- As the traditionally slower winter months continue, StreetEasy predicts Manhattan condo sales prices will fall 0.7 percent month-over-month in December. In 2015, StreetEasy predicts prices will increase 3.6 percent, which is half of what they increased in 2014, according to the StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast.
The typical winter lull caused the Manhattan condo market to cool in November, with inventory levels and sales activity falling.
Total Manhattan condo inventory declined 7.9 percent from October, in part due to a steep drop-off in newly listed inventory. There were 33.8 percent fewer condos listed in November than in October, according to the November StreetEasy® Manhattan Condo Market Reporti.
Sales activity also slowed in November, with pending sales falling 26.1 percent from Octoberii. Condos that went into contract in November spent a median of 58 days on the market, 11 days more than October and 5 days more than last November.
"Colder weather and modest price growth put a chill on condo sales activity in November. That's not a surprise as October is typically the final push for home purchases before the end of the year," said StreetEasy data scientist Alan Lightfeldt. "But the slowdown will likely continue through all of 2015. We predict condo prices will increase at just half their 2014 pace over the next year. But this is a welcome sign of a much more healthy and sustainable growth rate, which may influence sellers to put their homes on the market in order to capture peak prices. Greater inventory will give Manhattan buyers the opportunity to be more aggressive about negotiating asking prices."
Amid the seasonal market slowdown, Manhattan condo sales prices increased only slightly in November, up 0.8 percent from October, but remained nearly 10 percent above year-ago levels, according to the StreetEasy Condo Price Index (SECPI)iii. As the slower winter months continue, StreetEasy predicts Manhattan condo sales prices will fall 0.7 percent in December. In 2015, StreetEasy predicts prices will increase 3.6 percent, which is half their 2014 pace, according to the StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast.
The full report, including a neighborhood breakdown of StreetEasy Manhattan Condo Market Report data and additional analysis, can be viewed at streeteasy.com/market/reports.
StreetEasy is New York City's leading real estate marketplace on mobile and the Web, providing accurate and comprehensive for-sale and for-rent listings from hundreds of real estate brokerages throughout New York City and the major NYC metropolitan area. StreetEasy adds layers of deep, proprietary data and useful search tools that help consumers and real estate professionals navigate the complex real estate markets within the five boroughs of New York City, as well as Northern New Jersey and the Hamptons. The company launched in 2006 and was acquired by Zillow, Inc., in August 2013.
i The StreetEasy Manhattan Condo Market Report is a monthly overview of the Manhattan condo real estate market. The report data is aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers and real estate brokerages for all five major submarkets within Manhattan, with most metrics dating back to 1995. The reports are compiled by the StreetEasy Research team. For more information, visit streeteasy.com/market/reports. StreetEasy also tracks data for the five boroughs within New York City.
ii StreetEasy measures pending sales as the number of condo units that entered contract during the month.
iii The StreetEasy Condo Price Index (SECPI) is a monthly index that tracks changes in sales prices of condo homes in Manhattan. The Index uses a repeat-sales method of comparing the sales prices of the same prices since January 1995. Given this methodology, the Index captures the true change in condo value and controls for the varying composition of condo homes sold in a given month. Data on arms-length sales of condo homes is sourced from the New York City Department of Finance. The Index is calculated monthly and is indexed to January 2000 with a baseline value of 100.
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