Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights: Deere, Caterpillar, CNH Global, Rockwell Automation and Illinois Tool Works

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Jun 08, 2012, 09:30 ET

CHICAGO, June 8, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses the U.S. Machinery, including Deere & Company (NYSE:DE), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT), CNH Global NV (NYSE:CNH), Rockwell Automation Inc. (NYSE:ROK) and Illinois Tool Works, Inc. (NYSE:ITW).

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A synopsis of today's Industry Outlook is presented below. The full article can be read at

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/76581/machinery-stock-outlook-june-2012

The Machinery industry is one of the most attractive industries in the United States. Growth prospects for this industry, as can be deduced from the indicators to the performances in the recent past, look promising. In the first quarter 2012, industrial production in the United States rose by 5.4% while manufacturing output increased by 10.4%. The US Census Bureau report indicates a 13.1% year-over-year rise in machinery shipments and a 10.4% increase in new orders. Machinery order backlogs at the end of the quarter have escalated 22.7%.

End-market demand remains strong. In the first quarter, new orders for construction and industrial machinery rose by 17.8% and 14.5%, respectively. Orders for mining equipment were, however, down 17.5%. Farm machinery shipments rose 24%. Spending on construction equipment increased in the quarter, including a rise in residential and non-residential spending.

International demand for technologically advanced construction and agriculture equipment is improving. The United States' construction equipment exports rose 43% while agricultural equipment exports registered a 23% increase in 2011, according to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM). Overall, capital equipment exports reached $160 billion, accounting for nearly 14% of the global machinery market share in 2011.

Japanese Market Growing on Reconstruction Activities

Japan's Cabinet Office reported a 0.9% increase in core machine orders in the first quarter of 2012 as compared with the previous quarter and a 3.3% rise from the year-ago quarter. Increasing consumer spending and higher reconstruction activities have accelerated recovery in the country. The government has projected 2.5% machine order growth for the second quarter of 2012.

Also, according to the IMF, the Japanese economy is projected to grow 2.0% in 2012 and 1.7% in 2013.

Emerging Nations - Set for Growth

China and India, the two major emerging/developing nations, are expected to show signs of tangible growth in the years to come. According to the IMF, the Chinese economy is projected to grow 8.2% and 8.8% in 2012 and 2013, respectively.

Looser fiscal and monetary measures by the Chinese authorities, along the lines of Thursday's interest rate cut by the Chinese central bank, are expected to offset some of the recent weakness in economic data. Fixed Asset Investment has been on the rise over the years, with a major share being invested in the machinery industry. The country's domestic demand and investments will help in offsetting lower export demand from its biggest export region, the European Union.

Industrial production in India has been weak in recent months, and the first quarter GDP report was the weakest in years. However, the country is projected by the IMF to grow 6.9% in 2012 and 7.3% in 2013. Demand for agricultural equipment is expected to rise in an effort to modernize the existing farming techniques.

Korea's industrial output in the first quarter 2012 gained 3.7% year over year; machinery investments increased 11.4%. However, construction activities were weak in the quarter. The IMF predicts the economy will grow 3.5% in 2012 and 4.0% in 2013.

Thailand seems to be recovering fast from the ravages of its floods; reconstruction activities are perceptible in the region to spur demand in the machinery industry.

Other Major Players

As per data released by the Brazilian government, economic growth in Brazil remains healthy; projected to grow from 2.7% in 2011 to about 3.5% in 2012. Upcoming sporting events to be held in Brazil, rising government spending to improve the country's infrastructure, growing trade relations with other economies, as well as huge foreign direct investments all bode well for the economy.

South Africa is also making progress; expected to grow 2.7% in 2012 and 3.4% in 2013, as projected by the IMF. The government is focused on improving its mining, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Moreover, huge public investments in the infrastructure development programs remain in the forefront.

Eurozone - A Hurdle

The Eurozone debt crisis has slowed down the overall growth pace in the region. According to a report published by Eurostat in May 2012, industrial production (excluding construction) in the Eurozone fell 2.2% year over year in March 2012 and declined 0.3% compared with February 2012. The capital goods formation growth rate fell from 1.4% in February 2012 to 1.1% in March.

On a monthly basis comparison, industrial production in Spain fell by 1.8% in March 2012, France -0.9%, Estonia -3.4%, Luxembourg -1.9%, Denmark -2.8%, the Netherlands -9.0% and Ireland -2.7%. However, industrial production in Germany and Italy grew by 1.3% and 0.5%, respectively.

However, Construction output increased 12.4% in March 2012 compared with the previous month, with the largest increase recorded in Germany (30.7%). Output in France rose by 17.8%, Italy by 9.5%, and in the United Kingdom by 14.8%.

Also, according to the VDMA machine makers association, German machine tool orders in the first quarter 2012 plummeted 7%, with domestic orders down by 1% and international orders sliding by 9%.

Important Players of the Machinery Industry

Deere & Company (NYSE:DE) impressed with its record second quarter 2012 results and fiscal 2012 outlook. Equipment sales rose 13%; price realization contributed 5%. The agricultural and forestry equipment provider is expanding globally (capital spending expected $1.3 billion in 2012) to leverage benefits from the growing global farm industry. Third quarter equipment sales are expected to rise 25% y/y; net earnings expectations for fiscal 2012 have been raised by 2.3%, primarily accounting for growing needs of advanced equipment.

Caterpillar Inc.'s (NYSE:CAT) equipment sales in the first quarter 2012 improved 25% y/y, benefiting largely from higher mining activities and growing replacement needs. The company raised its 2012 profit per share expectation by 2.7% on better demand forecasts.

Italy-based CNH Global NV (NYSE:CNH) posted a 22% increase in its equipment sales (agricultural and construction) in the first quarter 2012. Worldwide agricultural equipment retail demand in 2012 is expected to be flat to up 5% and construction unit demand up 5% to 10%.

Prime companies operating in machinery industries other than agricultural, construction and mining, include Rockwell Automation Inc. (NYSE:ROK) and Illinois Tool Works, Inc. (NYSE:ITW), among others.

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