After a Modest October Dip Amid Shutdown, CRE Activity Remains on Track for a Solid Finish to 2025

IRVINE, Calif., Nov. 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- LightBox, a leading provider of commercial real estate data and technology, released its October CRE Activity Index, which registered 106.2, down from 116.8 in September. The modest pullback followed a strong September surge and reflects a market temporarily slowed by the prolonged federal government shutdown and growing concerns about a weakening labor market but is buoyed by steady lending activity and the rate easing cycle.

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The LightBox CRE Activity Index is a composite of more than 30,000 real-time market signals spanning commercial property listings, lender appraisals, and environmental due diligence, capturing the earliest indicators of U.S. commercial real estate momentum.

Highlights of the October Index:

• Commercial property listings eased 8% month over month, returning to levels consistent with mid-summer after September's 25% spike.
• Phase I ESA activity remained strong, just 1% below September's volume, led by energy, data center, and multifamily demand.
• Lender-driven appraisals dipped 4%, holding steady relative to 2024 averages as refinancing and deal pipelines remain active.

"October's slowdown looks more like a pause than a pivot," said Manus Clancy, head of Data Strategy at LightBox. "Even with the federal shutdown and softer sentiment, deal flow held firm, lenders stayed active, and capital markets welcomed the second rate cut of the year. The market continues to prove remarkably resilient."

While the federal shutdown briefly disrupted some public-sector projects, LightBox data shows sustained strength across private lending, development, and investment activity. Environmental due diligence volume remained elevated, supported by growth in digital infrastructure, manufacturing, and multifamily assets.

"Lending consistency has been the quiet success story of 2025," added Clancy. "Refinancing and selective new originations are keeping pipelines full, even as the market responds to market and policy uncertainty."

Despite macro headwinds, including layoffs, weaker consumer sentiment, and tariff pressures, the CRE Activity Index logged its ninth consecutive month in triple-digit territory, signaling ongoing recovery and confidence heading into year-end.

October's modest decline reflects a market that remains fundamentally strong, according to commentary in the report, even as seasonal patterns and temporary factors, such as the shutdown, weighed slightly on activity. Given historical trends, a further easing in November would not be unexpected and would likely represent normal year-end seasonality rather than a shift in direction.

"With two rate cuts now in place and credit conditions improving, the foundations for a steady, disciplined expansion are taking shape," said Dianne Crocker, research director at LightBox. "The market is demonstrating resilience and focus, deploying capital strategically, which bodes well heading into 2026."

Download the October CRE Activity Index

About LightBox

At LightBox, we are at the forefront of delivering advanced and precise solutions for commercial real estate intelligence. Our dedication to innovation propels real estate professionals forward by providing them with the essential tools required to navigate complex decisions, minimize risk, and boost productivity across the spectrum of real estate operations. LightBox is renowned for its commitment to promoting excellence and fostering connections in the industry, serving an extensive clientele of over 30,000 customers. Our diverse client base spans commercial and government sectors, including but not limited to brokers, developers, investors, lenders, insurers, technologists, environmental advisors, appraisers, and other businesses that depend on geospatial information. To discover more about how LightBox can illuminate the path to informed real estate solutions, visit us at: www.LightBoxRE.com

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SOURCE LightBoxRE