TORONTO, Sept. 16, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- With less than a week until the 2021 Canadian Federal Election, betting markets indicate that the outcome of the race is now too close to call.
At time of writing, Covers.com can report that one bookmaker is listing identical prices on the Conservatives and the Liberals to secure the most seats in the House of Commons.
Their odds of -120 demonstrate that each party's implied probability of winning the election is 54.64%*, while a bettor would need to stake $120 in order to win a profit of $100.
This is in stark contrast to the state of the market when it opened a month ago; on August 16th, Trudeau's Liberals were overwhelming favourites to secure another term, with their then-odds of -1,044 indicative of a commanding 91.26% chance of victory.
Rohit Ponnaiya, Political Betting Analyst at Covers, said, "Trudeau chose to call an early election with the goal of securing a majority government for his Liberal Party but it's now looking like they might not even be able to hold on to power at all."
"Several polls (including Mainstreet Research, EKOS, and Nanos Research) all indicate that the Conservatives have rapidly gained ground with the Liberals losing approximately two projected seats a day."
"That said, after weeks of losing ground, the Liberals appear to have stopped the bleeding and the latest 338Canada election simulator actually projects the Liberals to win the election with 143 seats while the Conservatives are in second place with a predicted 135 seats."
This election comes in the wake of single-game wagering, which was legalized after Bill C-218 was passed into Canadian law, launching at the end August. Betting on politics, however, remains a complicated proposition for citizens.
*The total implied probability is greater than 100% as a result of the margins inserted by sportsbooks to ensure profitability.
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