CEO Confidence Trends Downward in Q1 2026 as Geopolitical Uncertainty Returns

Vistage Small and Midsize Business CEO Survey Reveals Uncertainty is Leaders' Top Challenge

SAN DIEGO, April 14, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Confidence among small and midsize business (SMB) CEOs saw a slight dip in the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest CEO Confidence Index from Vistage, a CEO coaching and peer advisory organization. The Index dropped 1.7 points in Q1 to 87.2, ending a three-quarter climb but holding above the Index's three-year average.

Vistage's latest quarterly survey of SMB CEOs found that heightened levels of CEO uncertainty dampened revenue, profitability, and hiring expectations, compared to the previous quarter.

"The fact the Confidence Index declined, but stayed above its three-year average, reflects the fact CEOs adapted to the turmoil of 2025," said Joe Galvin, Vistage's chief research officer. "Entering 2026, CEOs were prepared for a year of solid growth and a more stable economy. However, the unanticipated Iran War has left CEOs once again facing an uncertain future. While the full impact of the war is yet to be determined, business leaders must revisit their plans and remain resilient amid ongoing change."

Since 2003, Vistage has measured SMB CEOs' sentiment on a variety of economic and business factors each quarter. ITR Economics' rate-of-change methodology has confirmed the Vistage CEO Confidence Index is a leading indicator of the U.S. Industrial Production Index nine months in advance, providing a clear view into the future.

"Despite this recent decline in confidence and spike in uncertainty, we still think things will look better in 2026 than they did in 2025," said Eric Post, Deputy Chief Economist at ITR Economics. "We are forecasting mild economic growth and tempered uncertainty for the rest of the year, making way to economic softness in 2027. It is – and will continue to be – a tricky period for business leaders to navigate, but the best path is to manage through."

Q1 2026 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:

Tariff uncertainty is stalling decisions and squeezing margins.

• For those impacted by tariffs, open‑ended responses describe the biggest challenges as refund complexity, delayed investments, and unsustainable absorbed costs.

A decline in economic optimism is dampening revenue and profitability expectations.

• 27% expect overall economic conditions in the U.S. to improve over the next year, down from 32% in Q3 and Q4 2025.
• Nearly two‑thirds (65%) of CEOs expect higher sales revenues in the year ahead, down slightly from 69% in Q4 2025.
• Just over half (51%) expect profitability to improve, a slight decrease from 53% in Q4 2025. Meanwhile, 17% expect worsening profitability, up from 13% in Q4 2025.

CEOs are split on pricing but increasing investments.

• Nearly half (45%) of CEOs plan to raise prices in the next three months.
• Meanwhile, half (50%) expect pricing to remain the same in the near term and just 3% plan to decrease prices.
• 38% plan to increase fixed investments over the next 12 months, up slightly from 36% last quarter and 34% last year.

Workforce expansion plans have seen a slight cooling.

• Just over half (51%) of CEOs plan to increase headcount in the year ahead, down from 57% in Q4 2025.
• Over half (54%) are hiring for new positions while the same proportion (54%) are backfilling based on attrition.
• 14% are delaying hiring or holding roles open as they balance expenses with revenue expectations.
• Over one in five (22%) say finding qualified talent is easier compared to last year, while 13% say it's harder, and the majority (65%) report no meaningful change.
  • Analysis of open-ended responses reveals that layoffs at larger companies are creating a talent pool for some SMBs.

AI is beginning to reshape hiring decisions, albeit slowly.

• One third (34%) of CEOs are evaluating how to incorporate AI into hiring and 22% are prioritizing internal upskilling for AI skills.
  • Still, two in five (39%) do not currently factor AI into hiring decisions. This is likely more indicative of the types of roles they are hiring for, rather than whether they view AI as a requirement of employment.
• Just 6% include AI skills as a requirement in job postings and the same (6%) formally evaluate AI skills, while one in five (21%) assess them informally in interviews.

View the full results of the Q1 2026 Vistage CEO Confidence Index at: vistage.com/ceoindex.

About the Vistage CEO Confidence Index
Established in 2003, the Vistage CEO Confidence Index surveys small and midsize business CEOs, presidents, and business owners about the U.S. economy every quarter. The Q1 2026 Vistage CEO Confidence Index includes responses from 1,302 U.S. CEOs surveyed between March 2 and 16, 2026. Using ITR Economics' rate-of-change methodology, analysis has revealed that the Vistage CEO Confidence Index is a leading indicator of the U.S. Industrial Production Index nine months in advance.

The Vistage CEO Confidence Index is recognized as the definitive voice of high-performing, high-integrity small and midsize business leaders. As a trusted resource, the Index provides world-class insights to inform decision-making for CEOs and other key leaders of small and midsize businesses. For more Vistage CEO Confidence Index results, visit vistage.com/ceoindex.

About Vistage Worldwide, Inc.
Vistage is the world's largest CEO coaching and peer advisory organization. Since 1957 we've been guiding CEOs and owners of small and midsize businesses to greater success. It's why Vistage member companies average 21+ years, while most U.S. businesses fail within five. Today, 45,000 members in 40 countries turn to Vistage to become better leaders who drive better outcomes. Learn more at vistage.com.

SOURCE Vistage Worldwide, Inc.