Compass Market Outlook: 2026 Will Bring the Most Balanced Housing Market in Years

NEW YORK, Dec. 11, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Compass, Inc. (NYSE: COMP), the largest residential real estate brokerage in the United States and a leading tech-enabled real estate services company, releases its first Housing Market Outlook, a forward-looking view of what's ahead for the U.S. market in 2026 and beyond. Developed by Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen, the report explains how the market is finally recalibrating after the post-pandemic period, marked by slow home sales and stubbornly high home prices that left many buyers and sellers on the sidelines.

As 2026 approaches, expectations on both sides of the transaction are resetting. Prices are flattening, more inventory is coming online, and rising wages are improving affordability. Together, these shifts are poised to bring long-delayed buyers and sellers back into the market, setting the stage for stronger sales.

The report identifies three major dynamics that are expected to shape 2026's housing market:

• Improved affordability as wages grow faster than home prices.
• A return to American mobility, as people who have wanted or needed to move can finally do so.
• Diverging economic and geographic conditions creating different outcomes, with luxury segments continuing to outperform entry-level properties.

"The market is shifting toward a new era where incomes rise faster than home prices and the deep freeze of the last few years begins to thaw," said Simonsen. "After years of delay, anyone looking to make a move should finally see greater opportunities to take the leap."

Additionally, the report projects four key housing market metrics: mortgage rates, home prices, sales volumes, and inventory. Nationally, home prices are expected to be flat, with growth at +0.5%. Inventory is expected to grow 5% nationwide, while mortgage rates are forecast to average around 6.4%, supporting higher sales. Existing home sales are forecast to increase by 4.25% to 5% from 2025.

The report notes that national averages can obscure meaningful differences across regions. Where housing supply remains constrained across the Northeast and Midwest, some Sun Belt states have already seen prices dip amid persistent excess inventory. These divergent dynamics will continue to shape the on-the-ground realities for consumers locally.

Similarly, as AI-driven equities have fueled a surge in wealth creation, the luxury tier of the housing market – transactions over $1 million – has stood out over the past several years as a source of strength. Because affluent buyers tend to be less rate-sensitive, often pay cash, and benefit from strong financial markets, Compass' outlook predicts that the luxury segment will continue to thrive in 2026.

Overall, Compass' Outlook predicts that 2026 will mark a turning point for the U.S. housing market, entering a new phase in which home sales grow as inventory and wages rise, while prices remain flat.

The 2026 Compass Housing Market Outlook is available by going to compass.com/research/market-outlook.

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SOURCE COMPASS