Cox Automotive Forecast: February New-Vehicle Sales Rebound from Weather-Hit January but Fall Short of Last Year
- February's new-vehicle sales pace is forecast to finish near 15.6 million, down from last February's 16.0 million level but up from January's 14.9 million.
- Sales volume in February is expected to reach 1.19 million, down 3.4% from last year but up 6.9% from January.
- New-vehicle sales in February are expected to rebound modestly over January's weather-impacted level but remain down year over year.
ATLANTA, Feb. 24, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- February new-vehicle sales are expected to reflect ongoing challenges due to winter weather and economic uncertainty, yet demonstrate some improvement compared to January's results. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales (SAAR) in February is anticipated to be approximately 15.6 million. This figure represents a decline from last year's 16.0 million level but marks an increase over January's weather-affected pace of 14.9 million.
According to the Cox Automotive forecast released today, new-vehicle sales volume is expected to finish at 1.19 million, down 3.4% from last February, which had the same number of selling days. Compared to January, new-vehicle sales volume is forecast to rise by 6.9% in February, with two fewer selling days, which is the typical seasonal trend.
"The new-vehicle sales pace shifted to a lower gear in Q4 of last year, and that weakness is expected to continue through this month as well," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "February's SAAR is expected to improve on January's weather-impacted 14.9 million level but still reflect the harsh headwinds facing vehicle buyers. The loss of electric vehicle tax credits at the end of Q3 continues to impact sales. Also, the market is slowing due to ongoing concerns about the U.S. economy and high new-vehicle prices. These conditions are expected to be major headwinds for the new-vehicle market throughout 2026.
"However, we may see some strengthening in the coming months as tax refunds are distributed across the country. The Big Beautiful Bill passed in July of last year is expected to result in higher refunds this year, so this could provide a minor, short-term boost to vehicle sales in the coming months."
February 2026 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Sales Forecast1 | Market Share | |||||||
Segment | Feb-26 | Feb-25 | Jan-26 | YOY% | MOM% | Feb-26 | Jan-26 | MOM |
Mid-Size Car | 56,000 | 58,355 | 53,114 | -4.0 % | 5.4 % | 4.7 % | 4.8 % | -0.1 % |
Compact Car | 90,000 | 97,325 | 81,728 | -7.5 % | 10.1 % | 7.6 % | 7.4 % | 0.2 % |
Compact SUV/Crossover | 200,000 | 222,006 | 186,976 | -9.9 % | 7.0 % | 16.9 % | 16.9 % | 0.0 % |
Full-Size Pickup Truck | 160,000 | 161,828 | 150,363 | -1.1 % | 6.4 % | 13.5 % | 13.6 % | -0.1 % |
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover | 198,000 | 185,864 | 184,299 | 6.5 % | 7.4 % | 16.7 % | 16.6 % | 0.1 % |
Other Segments | 481,000 | 501,905 | 451,530 | -4.2 % | 6.5 % | 40.6 % | 40.8 % | -0.2 % |
Grand Total | 1,185,000 | 1,227,283 | 1,108,010 | -3.4 % | 6.9 % | |||
1Cox Automotive Industry Insights data | ||||||||
February has 24 selling days, the same as last year but two fewer than January.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and Cox Fleet®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Cox Automotive has been included on Glassdoor's Best Companies in Tech & AI 2026 and Best Place to Work in 2026 lists. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
SOURCE Cox Automotive
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