Cox Automotive Forecast: January U.S. Auto Sales Expected to Gain More Than 5% Year over Year Despite Harsh Winter Weather

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Jan 27, 2025, 12:00 ET

Sales volume in January is forecast to reach 1.125 million, reflecting a 5.2% increase from last year's total but a 25.3% decrease from December.
January's new-vehicle sales pace is expected to reach approximately 15.8 million, representing an increase of 0.8 million compared to last January's pace of 15.0 million but is a decline from December's 16.8 million level.
New-vehicle sales in January are expected to stay positive year over year for the fourth consecutive month, although they will follow the seasonal trend of being significantly lower month over month.

ATLANTA, Jan. 27, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- While the new-vehicle market finished 2024 on a high note, the pace of new-vehicle sales in January is expected to slow month over month, due in part to harsh winter weather nationwide and normal seasonal patterns. Historically, January has been a low-volume month. According to the Cox Automotive forecast released today, sales volume in January is projected to reach 1.125 million, a 25.3% drop from December but a 5.2% increase compared to January 2024.

Cox Automotive forecasts January's seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, to be 15.8 million, an increase from 15.0 million last year, though a decrease from December's surprisingly strong 16.8 million. At 15.8 million, this would represent the highest January SAAR in three years.

According to Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough at Cox Automotive: "New-vehicle sales have been strong since the election, but they are expected to moderate slightly this month. Sales pace in November and December were at the highest levels we've seen since the spring of 2021, but a dip this month is likely."

"January is generally one of the slowest months of the year for vehicle sales," Chesbrough added, "so a large decline from December is normal. However, severe weather across the country, along with the fires out west, will negatively affect consumer activity, though the extent is uncertain."

New-Vehicle Inventory and Incentives Remain Robust, Above Year-Ago Level
According to an analysis of vAuto Live Market View data, the total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles at the start of January stood at 2.88 million units, marking the first time it registered below 3 million since the end of October. This decline in inventory levels indicates a tightening supply situation in the market. However, inventory and incentives remain higher than they were a year ago, suggesting that dealers still have sufficient inventory and are offering deals to entice buyers.

January 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
	Sales Forecast¹					Market Share
Segment	Jan-25	Jan-24	Dec-24	YOY%	MOM%	Jan-25	Dec-24	MOM
Compact SUV/Crossover	200,000	188,185	266,924	6.3 %	-25.1 %	17.8 %	17.7 %	0.1 %
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover	175,000	175,702	233,375	-0.4 %	-25.0 %	15.6 %	15.5 %	0.1 %
Full-Size Pickup Truck	165,000	144,124	223,293	14.5 %	-26.1 %	14.7 %	14.8 %	-0.2 %
Compact Car	70,000	78,652	92,759	-11.0 %	-24.5 %	6.2 %	6.2 %	0.1 %
Mid-Size Car	55,000	63,286	70,643	-13.1 %	-22.1 %	4.9 %	4.7 %	0.2 %
Other Segments	460,000	418,968	620,035	9.8 %	-25.8 %	40.9 %	41.1 %	-0.3 %
Grand Total	1,125,000	1,068,917	1,507,029	5.2 %	-25.3 %
¹Cox Automotive Industry Insights data

January has 25 selling days this month, one less than last month but the same as last year.

2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
After finishing 2024 at just over 16.0 million units, according to the Kelley Blue Book estimates, Cox Automotive is forecasting new light vehicle sales to continue to improve modestly in 2025, reaching 16.3 million by year's end. Positive economic growth coupled with improved buying conditions should lead to a 2%-3% gain. However, policy changes regarding tariffs and electric vehicle tax credits from the Trump administration could have negative effects on the outlook, particularly in the second half of the year.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader^®, Kelley Blue Book^®, Manheim^®, vAuto^®, Dealertrack^®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch^® and FleetNet America^®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.