Cox Automotive Forecast: October U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Pace Expected to Slow to 15.7 Million; EV Sales Slump Weighs on Market

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Oct 27, 2025, 13:00 ET

October's new-vehicle sales pace is expected to finish near 15.7 million, down from last year's 16.1 million level and down from September's strong 16.4 million pace.
Sales volume is expected to reach 1.30 million in October, down 3.1% from last year but up 2.7% from last month.
Electric vehicle sales are expected to drop sharply following the tax credit's expiration, affecting October's totals.

ATLANTA, Oct. 27, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- October new-vehicle sales, when announced next week, are expected to take a step back from the strong pace seen in the third quarter. The October sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is forecast by Cox Automotive to reach 15.7 million, down from last year's 16.1 million level and down from September's pace of 16.4 million. The October slowdown is expected to be driven in part by a decline in electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) sales.

Sales volume is projected to reach 1.30 million, representing a decrease of more than 3% compared to the previous year, but an increase of 2.7% relative to last month. October has 27 selling days, the same as last year but three more than last month.

"The new-vehicle sales pace was surprisingly strong this summer despite ongoing tariff uncertainty," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. "However, as more tariffed products replace non-tariffed inventory, prices are tracking higher, which should lead to slower sales through the remainder of the year. With the expiration of EV tax credits and a decline in alternative powertrain sales, the sales pace is anticipated to decrease as we move into a new season."

October 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

	Sales Forecast ¹					Market Share
Segment	Oct-25	Oct-24	Sep-25	YOY%	MOM%	Oct-25	Sep-25	MOM
Mid-Size Car	60,000	77,493	54,725	-22.6 %	9.6 %	4.6 %	4.3 %	0.3 %
Compact Car	85,000	95,737	84,259	-11.2 %	0.9 %	6.5 %	6.7 %	-0.1 %
Full-Size Pickup Truck	185,000	189,709	177,007	-2.5 %	4.5 %	14.2 %	14.0 %	0.2 %
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover	210,000	199,188	204,200	5.4 %	2.8 %	16.2 %	16.1 %	0.0 %
Compact SUV/Crossover	230,000	229,463	226,717	0.2 %	1.4 %	17.7 %	17.9 %	-0.2 %
Other Segments	530,000	549,330	518,436	-3.5 %	2.2 %	40.8 %	41.0 %	-0.2 %
Grand Total	1,300,000	1,340,920	1,265,344	-3.1 %	2.7 %

¹Cox Automotive Industry Insights data

Fourth Quarter and a New Era of Electric Vehicle Sales
Sales of EVs accelerated after passage of the Big Beautiful Bill in early July as buyers rushed to buy before the $7,500 tax credits expired at the end of September. As expected, EV sales volume in the U.S. hit an all-time high in Q3 2025, reaching 438,487 units sold, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates. EV sales volume in Q3 was up 40.7% from the previous quarter and higher by 29.6% year over year. Moving forward, the EV segment will be charting a new path, unsupported by government-backed sales incentives.

"The EV sales story will really change going forward from here," noted Chesbrough. "Sales of EVs and PHEVs are expected to collapse in October as tax credits expire. In addition, market conditions for other vehicles are expected to become more challenging in future months as prices increase."

Cox Automotive Full-Year Forecast and Outlook
Cox Automotive's full-year sales forecast range is between 15.8 and 16.4 million, with a baseline number of 16.1 million, the likely outcome for the year. Based on robust Q3 sales, forecasts for both fleet sales and new retail sales were adjusted higher during the last quarterly call. With an expected decline in EV leasing in Q4, the lease penetration forecast was lowered from 25% to 24%. Used retail sales and sales of certified pre-owned (CPO) vehicles were adjusted higher.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader^®, Kelley Blue Book^®, Manheim^®, vAuto^®, Dealertrack^®, NextGear Capital^™, CentralDispatch^® and FleetNet America^®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.