DRG Forecasts Market Growth for PCs and Tablets
BELMONT, Mass., July 2, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets announces the publication of its update to its U.S. Personal Devices 2019-2023 Forecast Report. The report is available on DRG's website, www.DanielResearchGroup.com.
Market Overview
After four years of declining Unit Shipments, the total Personal Device market will resume growth this year driven by three causal factors, economic stability, increasing replacement rates, and changing user form factor preferences.
United States Total Personal Device Unit Shipments (M) | ||||||
2018 | 2019 | AG | 2023 | CAGR '18-'23 | ||
Desktop PCs | ||||||
Desktop PCs | 15.9 | 15.8 | -0.6% | 11.8 | -5.8% | |
Mobile PCs | ||||||
Traditional | 41.1 | 41.0 | -0.3% | 45.4 | 2.0% | |
Convertible | 6.5 | 7.1 | 10.1% | 8.0 | 4.2% | |
Total Mobile PCs | 47.6 | 48.1 | 1.1% | 53.3 | 2.3% | |
Total PCs | 63.5 | 63.9 | 0.7% | 65.1 | 0.5% | |
Tablets | ||||||
Detachable | 7.2 | 8.5 | 18.0% | 10.1 | 7.1% | |
Slate | 33.0 | 32.4 | -2.0% | 31.3 | -1.1% | |
Total Tablets | 40.2 | 40.8 | 1.6% | 41.4 | 0.6% | |
Total PCs and Tablets | 103.7 | 104.8 | 1.0% | 106.5 | 0.5% | |
Mobile Phones | ||||||
Standard Phones | 7.2 | 4.8 | -33.9% | 1.4 | -28.3% | |
Smartphones | 163.3 | 161.2 | -1.3% | 181.5 | 2.1% | |
Total Mobile Phones | 170.5 | 165.9 | -2.7% | 182.9 | 1.4% | |
Total | ||||||
Total Personal Devices | 274.2 | 270.7 | -1.3% | 289.4 | 1.1% | |
∞∫∆ Daniel Research Group © (2019) | ||||||
The US Economy
Most economists are forecasting a continuation of our current slow growth in GDP and employment as the most likely scenario over the next five years. Stable growth periods increase demand for Consumer and Enterprise PCs, Tablets, and Mobile Phones. However, structural changes in the economic demographics will influence how demand will be distributed. While the number of employees will grow over the next five years, the number of businesses will slightly decrease. In the Consumer sector, while the number of households will increase, the resident size of the households will slightly decrease. The aging population will also influence use-case evolution, and therefore demand.
While there are rising concerns effecting both the demand and supply side of the market, they are not yet at the level requiring changes to our forecast model assumptions. However, we will continue to monitor development regarding
- Tariffs and trade wars
- Interest rates and inflation
- The emergence of a decline in job growth
- Chip and component shortages
Replacement Rates
With the exception of Consumer Desktops, we have set our model assumptions for replacement rates to increase very slightly from year to year over the forecast period. There are a number of reasons for assuming that replacement rates will slightly increase.
- Many of the products exhibited an increase in replacement rates in 2017 after a long period of deceasing replacement rates
- Window 7 to Windows 10 upgrade rate is increasing
- Older devices not able to meet new use-case requirements
- Increase in actual device failure rates
- Changing user preferences for content delivery form factors
Changing Users Form Factor Preferences
While the preference for mobile vs. fixed computing devices will continue to increase in both segments, there are difference in form factor preference. Enterprises prefer Convertible Mobile PCs that are better suited for productivity increasing use-cases. Consumer prefer Detachable Tablets that are better suited to meet content delivery, social media, and life management use-cases.
About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 30 years. The forecast in the report was developed using DRG's EquilibriumSolver (EQS) methodology and application. To learn more about EQS, click on these links – Fact Sheet: http://tinyurl.com/EQSFactSheet, White Paper: http://tinyurl.com/EQSWhitePaper.
Contact
Steve Daniel, President
Daniel Research Group
(617) 484 – 6225
[email protected]
www.DanielResearchGroup.com
SOURCE Daniel Research Group
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