DRG Forecasts Total US Personal Devices Unit Shipments Will Slowly Decline Over the Next Five Years
BELMONT, Mass., Feb. 22, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets, announces the availability of its updated U.S. Personal Devices 2022-2027 Forecast Report.
DRG current forecast model projects that Unit Shipments for Consumer and Enterprise Personal Computing and Communication Devices will return to the pre pandemic trend of slowly declining year to year Unit Shipments.
United States Total Personal Device Unit Shipments (M) | ||||||
2022 | 2023 | AGR | 2027 | CAGR '22-'27 | ||
Desktop PCs | ||||||
Desktop PCs | 16.1 | 15.4 | -4.1 % | 13.9 | -2.8 % | |
Mobile PCs | ||||||
Traditional | 49.4 | 49.3 | -0.2 % | 51.3 | 0.8 % | |
Convertible | 8.9 | 8.8 | -0.8 % | 8.8 | -0.1 % | |
Total Mobile PCs | 58.3 | 58.1 | -0.3 % | 60.2 | 0.6 % | |
Total PCs | 74.3 | 73.5 | -1.1 % | 74.1 | -0.1 % | |
Tablets | ||||||
Detachable | 25.2 | 24.1 | -4.5 % | 21.0 | -3.6 % | |
Slate | 27.0 | 23.7 | -12.0 % | 14.7 | -11.5 % | |
Total Tablets | 52.2 | 47.8 | -8.4 % | 35.6 | -7.4 % | |
Total PCs and Tablets | 126.5 | 121.3 | -4.1 % | 109.7 | -2.5 % | |
Mobile Phones | ||||||
Standard Phones | 4.2 | 3.8 | -9.2 % | 2.7 | -8.6 % | |
Smartphones | 140.2 | 135.8 | -3.2 % | 123.4 | -2.5 % | |
Total Mobile Phones | 144.4 | 139.6 | -3.3 % | 126.0 | -2.7 % | |
Total | ||||||
Total Personal Devices | 271.0 | 261.0 | -3.7 % | 235.7 | -2.7 % | |
∞∫∆ Daniel Research Group © (2023) | ||||||
The major forecasting challenge over the past two years has been understanding the near and long-term disruptive changes to life management and economic patterns caused by the pandemic and the policies and procedures designed to mitigate its damaging effects. Many of these changes are known, many are still developing and emerging. While demand levels among products and form factors were slightly shifted from prior levels, due to the pandemic the shift across segments was more pronounced. For some products and form factors, we view the segment shifts to be transitory and anticipate a return to historical levels over the forecast period. For others, the shift will be permanent.
All three product categories saw the consumer share of the market gain at the expense of the enterprise share. The primary driver being the increase in demand to support Work From Home, Learn from Home, and Home Entertainment use cases during the pandemic. While we expect the segment splits for Desktops to begin to return to historic levels, Mobile PCs and Tablets will continue to gain consumer share.
DRG's current economic analysis and forecast is in line with the consensus opinion that the United States will experience a mild recession starting in the latter half of 2023 and lasting until the early half of 2024 -- the "Soft Landing" scenario. This will influence consumers, and to a lesser extent business, to slow the rate at which they replace devices at or nearing their normal replacement time. We expect replacement rates to slowly return to pre pandemic levels and in many cases continue to increase. In contrast, we do not expect either TAM Penetration rates, or Density levels to deviate significantly from long-term trends.
The additional computing devices purchased during the pandemic will reach replacement age starting in 2025. Based on our assumption that most of the use cases that were transferred from the workplace to the home will continue to stay in place, we expect little change in the installed base segment splits for computing devices supporting enterprise use cases. From a pre pandemic level of 15%, the percent of the employed working from home reached 40% at the height of the pandemic. While many have returned to office and workplaces, DRG estimates that eventually the percent of the employed working from home will stabilize in the 20% to 25% range.
The full 95 page forecast report with 80 tables and 85 charts is freely available from the DRG Website with this link. The forecast was developed using DRG's forecasting methodology and applications. The Daniel Research Group (DRG) EquilibriumSolver (EQS) combines long-term Total Available Market (TAM), Penetration, Density and Replacement Rate trends with actual reported year-to-date Unit Shipment and Revenue data, as well as analyst assessments of the magnitude and direction of major causal economic, demographic and market factors, to produce forecasts with superior predictive properties.
The core EQS algorithm produces forecasts for all of the key variables and metrics that are reasonably and consistent both mathematically and with a narrative developed from external data, information, analysts' knowledge and insights. Simply put, the EQS Core Algorithm will converge on the most likely forecast for all of the variable given the input data and parameters. To learn more about EQS, click on these links – Fact Sheet: White Paper. If you are interested in learning how DRG can meet your forecasting or forecasting process needs, please contact us.
About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 30 years.
Contact:
Steve Daniel, President
Daniel Research Group
(617) 484 – 6225
[email protected]
www.DanielResearchGroup.com
SOURCE Daniel Research Group
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