Global Times: 4.5%-5%: Understanding the 'progress' and 'stability' in China's economic target

BEIJING, March 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- China has entered the "national two sessions" time. The newly announced GDP growth target for the new year has once again become a "super bellwether" in the global public opinion arena for interpreting the trajectory of the world economy. Against the backdrop of intensifying geopolitical turbulence and insufficient momentum for global economic recovery, the economic blueprint presented by China demonstrates strategic resolve, policy effectiveness, development vitality, and governance capacity. It not only serves as a powerful rebuttal to the "Peak China" narrative, but also represents an exceptionally scarce "source of certainty" in an increasingly volatile world.

The growth target of 4.5 percent to 5 percent is a scientifically derived conclusion based on rigorous calculations and comprehensive risk assessments. It establishes a growth floor while leaving ample room for discretion. As a giant economy with a total output exceeding 140 trillion yuan ($20.4 trillion), China's economic increment in 2024 alone was equivalent to the annual GDP of a medium-sized country. Analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also shows that when China's growth rate rises by 1 percentage point, it will help raise the output levels of other economies by an average of 0.3 percentage points. Especially when compared with other major economies, growth of such magnitude is neither "low" nor "slow" by global standards.

More importantly, this target places greater emphasis on quality. It firmly shifts the focus of development toward technological innovation, green transformation, and the stability and resilience of industrial and supply chains, rather than blindly pursuing figures on the books. The setting of this target leaves valuable strategic room for maneuver as structural reforms move into "deeper waters," ensuring that the giant ship of China's economy can press forward bravely and steadily amid complex headwinds and turbulent seas. Furthermore, this target embodies strategic resolve: not swayed by short-term fluctuations, not influenced by external opinions, but keeping a clear-headed commitment to seeking truth from facts at all times and steadily advancing far along the path of high-quality development. In a recent note, The Economist stated that the adjustment of target values "would give policymakers more room to prioritise structural reform and improve data quality."

Today, the guiding role of new quality productive forces is emerging with unprecedented momentum. From the global success of the "new three" industries - new-energy vehicles, lithium ion batteries, and photovoltaic products - to China's ability to keep pace with and even lead in advanced fields such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing, as well as pioneering exploration in the "uncharted frontiers" of science and technological innovation, such as future industries, and comprehensive breakthroughs have been achieved in core technology fields - from isolated points to the entire surface, and from the underlying layers to the terminals. This is by no means a simple industrial shift, but a profound transformation that is reshaping the very boundaries of productivity. It is driving a surging eruption of "ubiquitous growth drivers" like a gushing spring, building the hard-core confidence and unassailable foundation for China's economy to hold a winning hand amid global geopolitical games - no matter how fierce the storms rage.

Development places greater emphasis on policy effectiveness, with an effective market and a capable government advancing hand in hand. The Chinese government has demonstrated remarkable strategic resolve and a sophisticated management approach. The growth target we set is not only a scientific conclusion, but also a solemn commitment to the Chinese people's aspiration for a better life. It must be clearly pointed out that through cross-cycle macroeconomic regulation and targeted industrial policies, China is implementing a coordinated set of policy measures to ensure that every percentage point of growth is of high quality and that policies benefiting people and businesses are effectively implemented. This high-quality, highly reliable policy effectiveness is not only a key safeguard for the Chinese economy against external shocks but also one of the most valuable and scarce "credit asset" in the eyes of global investors.

Currently, the world has entered a new period of turbulence and transformation. From the rapidly shifting situation in the Middle East to the resurgence of unilateralism and protectionism, global supply chains are facing unprecedented risks of fragmentation. In such a climate of disorder, the "stability" in China's economic target itself represents a major constructive contribution to the world. As the world's second largest economy, China has contributed more than 30 percent of global economic growth for many consecutive years. This irreplaceable role stems from the country's complete industrial system and profound resilient supply chains. China - the world's largest manufacturing nation and largest trader in goods - ranks first globally in the output of more than 500 major industrial products, serving as a stabilizing anchor for global supply chains.

China's growth targets have never been about winning some imagined race for hegemony, but about enabling the Chinese people to live better lives. The success of Chinese modernization will demonstrate to the world that a path of high-quality, sustainable development is not only viable, but capable of enduring success.

SOURCE Global Times