Global X: Investing Outlook Complicated by Contradictions in U.S. Economy and Evolving Geopolitical Order

Despite challenges, there are ample reasons for broad optimism, including AI-driven cost savings

NEW YORK, Dec. 3, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite an outlook that is complicated by contradictions in the U.S. economy and an evolving geopolitical order, Global X Management Company LLC ("Global X"), the New York-based provider of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), believes there are ample reasons for broad optimism on the U.S. economy as well as certain international markets heading into the new year.

"The U.S. economy has been a juggernaut since 2022. Three years later, the consumer keeps spending and household balance sheets are healthy, on average, though cracks are emerging in certain areas, such as foreclosures," said Scott Helfstein, Head of Investment Strategy at Global X. "Meanwhile, U.S. companies are, in general, very profitable these days, and the massive capital expenditure super-cycle marches on."

Since the first quarter of 2023, he notes that analysts have consistently underestimated S&P 500 corporate profits and operating expenses. In fact, large-cap companies are very profitable, with margins now approaching 14%. AI is expected to continue driving cost savings, which will be critical to assessing long-term value.^[i]

Nevertheless, Helfstein noted several contradictions that complicate forecasting. For example, U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter of this year was strong, yet job growth was anemic – an unusual divergence. Moreover, consumer sentiment has been depressed since the post-pandemic re-opening but spending has remained strong.

At the same time, emerging markets (EM) appear poised to enter 2026 with the right mix of ingredients for a potentially positive cycle, including a weaker or steady U.S. dollar, increased liquidity in the financial system, strength in China, and relatively low levels of EM exposure within the U.S., according to Malcolm Dorson, Head of Active Investment at Global X.

"Despite our bullish outlook, we know that broad EM index exposure isn't for everyone. And in that case, we see opportunities in the BASICs – Brazil, Argentina, southeast Asia, India, and China," Dorson noted. "From a positioning perspective, most advisors we speak to still have, on average, less than 5% exposure to EM equities. However, 2025 was the first time in many years that we heard noticeable concerns about underweights to the asset class and a desire to get closer to the 10.5% benchmark weight in the MSCI All Country World Index."

In its newly published 2026 outlooks, Global X addresses the macroeconomic environment as well as the U.S. economy and current investing trends in Latin America, India, China, and beyond. To read its outlooks, click here.

About Global X

Global X was founded in 2008. For more than fifteen years, our mission has been empowering investors with unexplored and intelligent solutions. Our product lineup features a wide range of ETF strategies and $70 billion in assets under management.^[ii] While we are distinguished for our Thematic Growth, Income, and International Access ETFs, we also offer Core and other funds to suit a wide range of investment objectives. Explore our ETFs, research and insights, and more at www.globalxetfs.com.

Global X is a member of Mirae Asset Financial Group ("Mirae Asset"), a global leader in financial services, with $754.1 billion in assets under management worldwide.^[iii] Mirae Asset has an extensive global ETF platform ranging across the U.S., Australia, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Europe, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam.

Media Contact:

Ariel Kouvaras, Sloane PR
+1 212-446-1884
[email protected]

^[i] Source: Bloomberg as of November 14, 2025, using the S&P 500 as a proxy for large caps.
^[ii] Source: Global X ETFs, as of September 30, 2025.
^[iii] Source: Mirae Asset, as of September 30, 2025.

SOURCE Global X Management Company LLC