IAB Adjusts 2025 Outlook Amid Ad Buyers' Macroeconomic Concerns: Social, Retail Media, CTV Will Still See Double-Digit Growth

Outlook Lowered 1.6 Percentage Points

NEW YORK, Sept. 25, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Advertisers facing a shifting economy are sharpening their focus. That's what was revealed in IAB's 2025 Outlook Study September Update: A Snapshot of the Latest Ad Spend Trends, Opportunities, and Strategies for Growth.

Amid rising tariff concerns and macroeconomic headwinds, ad buyers expect to spend less in the second half of the year than originally projected, leading IAB to lower its 2025 U.S. ad spend projection 1.6 ppts from +7.3% to +5.7%.

Spend in the first half held steady with IAB's original forecast (+7.0%), but new sentiment, driven largely by tariffs, pushed the second-half projection down to +5.0%, driving a lower full-year outlook.

The IAB 2025 Outlook Study September Update is based on a survey of over 200 buyers at brands and agencies to understand their growth strategies, anticipated spend by channel, and the challenges they foresee.

Tariff Turbulence Rewrites the Playbook

Tariff concerns are driving real-time budget reshuffles. A staggering 91% of buyers have concerns about how tariffs will affect media spending, and for sectors like auto, retail, and consumer electronics, that concern is escalating into action.

These categories, which are heavily reliant on imported products/parts, are being pressured to balance rising costs with unrelenting demands to perform. According to the report, 62% to 69% of buyers expect these industries to be hit hardest, and many are already adjusting spend strategies.

Amid tariff concerns, buyers cite macroeconomic headwinds (41%) and changing consumer habits (40%) as their top two overall challenges for the rest of the year.

"The marketplace reacts poorly to uncertainty. With tariff impacts starting to roll through the supply chain, there is a lot of hesitance as to where the economy and consumer sentiment will go over the coming months," said David Cohen, CEO, IAB. "Marketers are laser-focused on maintaining the utmost flexibility while driving short-term performance that delivers on their business goals."

Buyers Demanding Results Turn to CTV, Social Media, and Retail Media 

Buyers are focused on performance, with customer acquisition being the top goal (64%) and increased urgency on driving repeat purchases (+8 percentage points vs. 2024; 5 percentage points since January's projection).

Even with the full-year ad spend forecast revised downward by 1.6 points to +5.7%, key digital channels are still expected to post double-digit growth:

• Social Media: +14.3%
• Retail Media: +13.2%
• CTV: +11.4%

"In our January report, we saw real concerns about the economy, and a shift toward performance-driven media. Now that shift is accelerating. If consumers are pulling back, that means every single dollar of ad spend has to earn a return — and that's more important than ever for auto, retail, and consumer electronics advertisers," said Chris Bruderle, Vice President, Industry Insights & Content Strategy, IAB.

Budgets Continue to Shift From Traditional Media

Linear TV will decline -14.4% compared with IAB's January projection of -12.7%. Other traditional media will decline more than twice as much as projected in January (-3.4%, compared with -1.5% earlier this year.)

"The silver lining in all of this is that the overall attitude of buyers remains positive. Budgets may tighten somewhat, but they're confident that digital media can deliver the measurable results they need," concluded Cohen. "This update to our projections should help the industry make the most of the remainder of 2025 while keeping an eye on 2026."

The latest "2025 Outlook Study September Update: A Snapshot into Ad Spend, Opportunities, and Strategies for Growth" is available here.

About IAB
The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) empowers the media and marketing industries to thrive in the digital economy. Its membership comprises more than 700 leading media companies, brands, agencies, and the technology firms responsible for selling, delivering, and optimizing digital ad marketing campaigns. The trade group fields critical research on interactive advertising, while also educating brands, agencies, and the wider business community on the importance of digital marketing. In affiliation with the IAB Tech Lab, IAB develops technical standards and solutions. IAB is committed to professional development and elevating the knowledge, skills, expertise, and collaboration of the workforce across the industry. Through the work of its public policy office in Washington, D.C., the trade association advocates for its members and promotes the value of the interactive advertising industry to legislators and policymakers. Founded in 1996, IAB is headquartered in New York City.

SOURCE Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)