This report provides an overview of the US-China trade war plan and its consequences. It also investigates the impacts of the US-China trade war on Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore.
The US-China trade war has been the main reason behind the uncertainty in financial markets during 2018 and 2019, which has affected investor confidence globally. For the US, their change in trade policy with China was aimed at reducing the US trade deficit with China and encouraging industries to invest in the United States rather than in China. The move is also aimed at bringing back manufacturing jobs to Americans.
The trade war has significant impacts on the economic indicators globally and regionally. The global economic growth slowdown and international trade barrier resulting from the US trade policies have led to reduced demand for many industries around the world and raised the possibility of a global recession. The flow of foreign direct investment has shifted away from China to other countries. Many companies with bases in China have already relocated or are considering relocation to other destinations as they do not see any resolution to the dispute in the near future.
Not all countries have been affected in the same manner by the trade war. For instance, it has presented Vietnam with considerable advantages, opening up the possibility to attract investments from across the globe, including China. In fact, Vietnam has been the biggest beneficiary of the US-China trade war in the world so far.
However, there is reason to anticipate changes in the US trade policy on Vietnam, as the US trade deficit with Vietnam is becoming wider. While Malaysia can be considered as an alternative destination for companies relocating from China, Singapore's manufacturing industry, especially the semiconductor industry is suffering from the changes in demand for chipmakers, which has negatively impacted its economy. Finally, the report discusses the new phases of the trade war, such as the recent currency war and considers the possible future of the dispute. This report equips the investors with the required information to aid their decision-making process.
Key Issues Addressed
How has the US-China trade war affected economic growth?
What are the impacts of the dispute on the flow of foreign direct investment?
Which companies are considering relocation from China to other countries in the region?
What is the current state of the semiconductor industry in Singapore?
Key Topics Covered:
1. Executive Summary
Scope of the Study
Global Economic Growth
Global Policy Uncertainty
3. Did the America First Policy Really Put America First?
America First Policy
The US Trade Balance with China
The US Imports from China
The US Exports to China
The US International Trade Balance
4. The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Vietnam
The Economy of Vietnam
Vietnam's Economic Growth
Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam
How did Vietnam Attract Foreign Investments?
Tech Giants are Relocating to Vietnam
Exports from Vietnam to the World
US Trade with Vietnam
China Trade with Vietnam
Vietnam Industries in the Time of Trade War
Is Vietnam the Next Target of US Tariffs?
5. The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Malaysia
The Economy of Malaysia
Malaysia's Economic Growth
Foreign Direct Investment in Malaysia
Exports from Malaysia to the World
US Trade with Malaysia
China Trade with Malaysia
Malaysia Industries in the Time of Trade War
6. The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Singapore