SANTA MONICA, Calif., Jan. 28, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing information, trends and forecasting, today released its January 2013 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
For January 2013, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,050,938 units, up 15.1 percent from January 2012 and down 22.5 percent from December 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
The January 2013 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate ("SAAR") of 15.4 million new car sales, up from 14.0 million in January 2012 and remains flat from 15.4 million in December 2012
Retail sales are up 14.2 percent compared to January 2012 and down 19.8 percent from December 2012
Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 16.5 percent of total industry sales in January 2013
The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,274 in January 2013, which represents a decrease of 8.3 percent from January 2012 and a decrease of 12.2 percent from December 2012
Used car sales* are estimated to be 2,314,574, up 5.0 percent from January 2012 and down 26.6% percent from December 2012. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:2 for January 2013
"January is off to a very good start and this momentum will carry forward through the rest of the year with auto sales expected to reach 15.5 million units," said Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for TrueCar.com.
Forecasts for the top eight manufacturers for January 2013:
January 2013 Forecast
% Change vs. December 2012
% Change vs. January 2012
January 2013 Forecast
January 2013 Incentives
% Change vs. December 2012
% Change vs. January
"Automakers are kicking off the year strong, staying true to disciplined incentive spending as many curtailed their spending in January as the current lineup of products speak for themselves," said Kristen Andersson, analyst for TrueCar.com.
TrueCar.com also projects sales down to the brand level, which can be viewed in its entirety at the Truth Blog on TrueCar.com. Brand level incentive spending forecasts are available upon request.
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
TrueCar, Inc., headquartered in Santa Monica, Calif., with offices in Santa Barbara, Calif., San Francisco, Calif., and Austin, Texas, is an automotive pricing information and analysis company that creates a better buying experience for dealers and consumers. As an online publisher of unbiased new and used car transaction data, TrueCar.com provides price reports that empower dealers and consumers to agree on the parameters of a fair deal by supplying a transparent, simple understanding of what others recently paid for identically-equipped new cars in their geographic area. TrueCar also owns ALG, the benchmark for vehicle value information to the automotive industry and has been forecasting residual values for nearly 50 years in both the U.S. and Canadian markets.
TrueCar is a data-driven company that sources, compiles, and analyzes car-buying information unlike anybody in the industry. This is why, since its founding in 2005, TrueCar dealer partners have sold over 600,000 vehicles across the country. Its national network of more than 5,200 Certified Dealers is committed to provide no-hassle pricing for some of the country's largest membership and service organizations, including American Express, AAA, USAA and Consumer Reports that collectively represent more than one million monthly in-market customers.
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