Leading Economic Index for China Increases Again in August

Oct 14, 2010, 22:00 ET from The Conference Board

BEIJING, Oct. 14 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.7 percent in August to 149.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in July and a 1.2 percent increase in June. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in August.

"The China LEI's increase in August suggests continuing growth and receding risks of a slowdown in coming months," says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. "Still, half of our indicators are showing a decline rather than a rise in August from July."

Says Williams Adams, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center for Economics and Business: "The favorable near-term economic outlook combined with rising consumer prices increasingly resemble the period of currency appreciation between 2005 and 2008. Business conditions may be strong enough to spur somewhat tighter credit and monetary policy."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.0 percent in August to 190.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in July and a 1.5 percent increase in June. All five components contributed positively to the index in August.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China.

The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)

5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

To view the webpage, which includes a pdf of the press release, technical notes and Chinese translation: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2010 indicator releases: http://www.conference-board.org/data

* There are no series in The Conference Board LEI and The Conference Board CEI for China that are based on our estimates.

About The Conference Board

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes






Feb to Aug

Leading Economic index (LEI)

147.6 r

148.8 r


Percent Change

1.2 r

0.8 r








Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

187.3 r

188.3 r


Percent Change

1.5 r









n.a. Not available     p Preliminary     r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

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SOURCE The Conference Board