LightBox CRE Activity Index Declines for the Second Consecutive Month but Still Outpaces 2023
IRVINE, Calif., Dec. 9, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- LightBox, a leading provider of commercial real estate (CRE) information and technology, released its Monthly CRE Activity Index for November that recorded a reading of 80.5, reflecting a double-digit month-over-month decline. Despite this, the Index continued to outperform the same period in 2023, signaling resilience in the CRE market.
This aggregate measure of activity in commercial property listings, environmental due diligence, and appraisals collectively tracks shifts in the velocity of key functions that support CRE transactions and therefore provides a useful leading indicator of deal activity. With the anticipated month-over-month seasonal decline in November, the Index came in 15.4 points lower than the October reading. The Index began its decline in October with a slight 2.3 point-drop to 95.9. For the past three years, the October to November Index decline has averaged 14.7 points. This year's slightly steeper decline was likely a function of market uncertainty reflected by recent volatility in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield as investors assessed the outcome of the November election.
More encouraging, however, is the dramatic improvement year over year. The November Index landed 12.7 points higher than the 67.8 reading one year ago. Behind the uptick were double-digit increases in velocity across all three CRE activity indicators (property listings, appraisals, and environmental due diligence). One year ago, rates were locked at high levels, lenders held fast to the reins, and sellers were reluctant to list properties given the high degree of pricing uncertainty.
"Despite the seasonal decline, November's Index points to resilient momentum in the market, with sellers showing more willingness to list properties, appraisers taking on more work to support lender activity, and environmental due diligence consultants seeing a rise in projects tied to new loans, sales, and refinancing," said Manus Clancy, LightBox head of Data Strategy.
According to report commentary, given that the major obstacles to 2024's CRE transactions and lending volume have all improved, the CRE Activity Index ended November in a better position at 80.5 than last November's 67.8 and December is unlikely to fall below last year's three-year low. Although the CRE market is not without headwinds, the continued strength of the U.S. economy, strong pockets of demand across CRE, and the availability of capital from willing lenders all bode well for healthy CRE investment and lending over the near term, according to LightBox analysts.
"With clearer signs on the horizon regarding lower interest rates and the new administration's policies, we're seeing signals of increased lending and investment sales activity in 2025. While economic and political uncertainties remain, November's data shows that well-capitalized investors are still pursuing opportunities in key asset classes and markets, and borrowers are securing financing for the right deals," said Clancy.
About LightBox
At LightBox, we are at the forefront of delivering advanced and precise solutions for commercial real estate intelligence. Our dedication to innovation propels real estate professionals forward by providing them with the essential tools required to navigate complex decisions, minimize risk, and boost productivity across the spectrum of real estate operations. LightBox is renowned for its commitment to promoting excellence and fostering connections in the industry, serving an extensive clientele of over 30,000 customers. Our diverse client base spans commercial and government sectors, including but not limited to brokers, developers, investors, lenders, insurers, technologists, environmental advisors, appraisers, and other businesses that depend on geospatial information. To discover more about how LightBox can illuminate the path to informed real estate solutions, visit us at: www.LightBoxRE.com
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