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MORE AMERICANS THINK NATION IS ON THE WRONG TRACK COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO: RBC CONSUMER OUTLOOK INDEX


News provided by

RBC

Oct 07, 2010, 12:23 ET

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However, attitudes about the economy, home prices, stock market and investments ticking upwards

Jobs are overwhelmingly top concern with midterm elections less than a month away

NEW YORK, Oct. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Although Americans' attitudes about the economy, home prices, the stock market and the value of their investments have improved, many are less optimistic about the future direction of the nation today compared to this time in 2009, according to the monthly RBC Consumer Outlook Index. Fewer consumers (37 percent) think the U.S. is currently on the right track compared to those polled a year ago (41 percent).

This month's index reflects the analysis of data from a survey of 1,007 U.S. adults taken September 30-October 3, 2010.

"True confidence continues to elude consumers," said Marc Harris, co-head of Global Research at RBC Capital Markets. "While the October numbers saw a steady increase from the prior month's reading in several areas, consumers' attitudes have seen no consistent positive momentum since the beginning of 2010 as the economy continues to struggle. Overall, consumer confidence is barely treading water."

The RBC Consumer Outlook Index also shows that jobs are still the number one concern on Americans' minds. With the upcoming midterm elections less than four weeks away, one thing is clear: Job creation and protection is the most important issue for Americans (56 percent). According to the RBC survey, 16 percent said keeping taxes low is the most important issue for Americans and, interestingly, only three percent said fixing the housing market is most important.

Additional highlights from the October 2010 RBC Consumer Outlook Index:

    -   Jobs sub-index flatlines. In advance of the upcoming payroll reports,
        stagnation in the RBC Jobs sub-index following the previous month's
        sharp decline does not bode well. The sub-index was flat for the
        month of October at 69.9, compared to 69.8 for September.

    -   Consumers slightly more confident about their own financial health
        and economy. Consumers are more optimistic this month than last, with
        only 38 percent of those polled saying the national economy will
        worsen over the next three months, down from 45 percent of those
        polled last month. Fewer people polled this month thought the economy
        and their own financial situation would worsen over the next year.
        Long term expectations continue to strengthen, with 25 percent of
        those polled saying the economy could get worse this year, down from
        28 percent last month.

    -   Americans more optimistic about home values in their neighborhoods.
        Thirty-one percent of those polled this month thought that the prices
        of homes in their neighborhood would increase in the year ahead,
        compared to 25 percent last month. Only 27 percent of those polled
        this month said home prices in their neighborhood would decline, a
        significant decrease from the 40 percent who expected a decline a
        month ago.

    -   Slight increase in confidence does not translate into increased
        spending. Even though this month's survey suggests some shifts in
        attitudes, it does not translate into changes in consumer spending
        behavior. In fact, compared to last month, a greater number of
        consumers said they would spend less. The Current Conditions
        sub-index -- a good proxy for how consumers feel right now about
        spending -- was virtually flat month over month, which could be
        perceived as a concerning signal for the holiday selling season. The
        reading was 57.4 for October versus 57.0 for September.

    -   Americans slightly more optimistic about investing in stock market,
        less nervous about their investments. Thirty-four percent of the
        stock-owning population polled said the next 30 days would be a good
        time to invest in the markets, compared to 26 percent of those who
        said this last month. However, the low reading means that despite the
        accommodative Fed commentary and a massive equity market rally in
        September, well over 50 percent of Americans polled say they are
        still not sure if now is a good time to invest in stocks.

    -   Consumers less panicked about the quality of their investment
        portfolios. Just 52 percent this month classified the value of their
        investments as "bad" compared to 60 percent last month.

About The RBC Consumer Outlook Index

The RBC U.S. Consumer Outlook Index provides the most up-to-date and comprehensive outlook of U.S. consumers based on data collected from interviews with a nationally representative sample of more than 1,000 U.S. adults conducted over a multi-day polling period each month by Ipsos, the world's second-largest market and opinion research firm. The results in this news release reflect some of the findings of the Ipsos poll of 1,007 U.S. adults conducted September 30 - October 3, 2010. The RBC Consumer Outlook Index is released within 36 hours after the U.S. online panel members are interviewed. Weighting is employed to balance demographics and ensure that the survey sample's composition reflects that of the U.S. adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe.

SOURCE RBC

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