New McLaughlin Battleground District Poll: Health Care Tax Credits a Pivotal Issue for Retaining the GOP House Majority, Protecting the Trump Agenda

Likely Voter Survey in 16-GOP Held Districts Demonstrates Significant Political Upside to Reversing Health Care Tax Hike, Preventing Premiums from Skyrocketing for Millions of Working Americans

WASHINGTON, Nov. 18, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Americans for a Balanced Budget released the findings of a national survey of 800 likely voters on November 18, 2025, conducted by pollster John McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates, across 16 GOP-held battleground districts rated Toss Up or Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report. The poll conclusively demonstrates enhanced premium tax credits (EPTCs) that help make health insurance affordable for working Americans who purchase their own coverage through the individual market are a pivotal political issue for the 2026 midterm election. Extending these tax credits set to expire at year-end would generate significant political upside for Republicans — and failure to extend these critical tax credits would seriously jeopardize GOP majorities in Congress, and with them, the Trump agenda.

"President Trump has rightly given the GOP a mandate to focus on affordability and economic prosperity for the American people," said Dee Stewart, President of Americans for a Balanced Budget. "We simply cannot deliver on that mandate if millions of working Americans are hammered by a massive health care tax hike that would double their premiums, nor can we hope to retain Republican majorities in Congress in the midterm election next year. For the sake of the Trump agenda after the midterms, and for the sake of conservative governance in Washington, we must reverse this health care tax hike before it is too late."

"Our survey finds likely voters in the districts most likely to determine control of the House in next year's midterm elections willing to move toward whichever candidate better addresses their concerns with affordability and the cost of living, particularly regarding health care costs for themselves and their families," said John McLaughlin, CEO of McLaughlin & Associates. "The survey further underscores significant political downside for the Republican candidate if the health care tax credits being debated in Washington expire, and working Americans experience a significant hike to their health care costs. While some in our party may oppose an extension of the tax credits on ideological grounds, failing to extend them puts Republican majorities – and everything that means for the Trump agenda – at grave risk. The message is clear: voters will grade the health care tax credits against the party's performance on affordability — with significant upside to getting something done, and significant downside if they expire."

The new survey found health care costs were the greatest area of concern for likely voters when thinking about rising costs facing them and their families. Nearly all voters (91%) agreed keeping health care affordable is important to lowering the overall cost of living for working American families.

A staggering 73% of voters were concerned about their health care premiums increasing next year, and 70% supported extending the EPTCs.

In addition, a 57% majority were more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who voted to preserve the tax credits. Support is even higher among Hispanic voters (66%) and Independent women voters (69%).

And a 53% majority were less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who allowed the health care tax credits to expire, resulting in higher insurance premiums. The political downside has intensity, with half (49%) who are "much" less likely to vote for the candidate. The majority of swing voters are less likely to vote for the candidate, including 57% of Independents, 57% of ticket splitters.

Read the full McLaughlin & Associates memo on results from the survey HERE.

McLaughlin and Associates conducted the survey, commissioned by Americans for a Balanced Budget, among 800 likely voters in 16 battleground House districts between November 10-11, 2025. The survey included a mix of landline phone, mobile phone, and text-to-web interviews. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. The accuracy of the sample of 800 likely voters is within +/- 3.4% at a 95% confidence interval.

The results from this latest survey reinforce McLaughlin & Associates findings from June and October of this year, which found overwhelming support for the individual health care marketplace, the EPTCs, and candidates for Congress who support and secure an extension. All three surveys also demonstrate voters see the health care tax credits as critical tax relief for hardworking Americans, not handouts.

Read more on the implications of a looming massive health care tax hike on millions of hardworking Americans, families, and small business owners HERE.

About Americans for a Balanced Budget

Americans for a Balanced Budget (ABB) has been an active, leading voice for fiscal sanity in government for more than a quarter century. In the modern era, ABB has broadened its role to include making the ongoing case for common sense, conservative policies to everyday Americans.

Through its advocacy programs and educational efforts, ABB is engaging civic-minded, thoughtful Americans, reaching them by instilling rationality, wisdom, and sanity into the broader public debate. ABB is applying time-tested principles for a more prosperous, secure America.

SOURCE Americans for a Balanced Budget