New McLaughlin Poll: Amid Shutdown, Voters Warn Against Health Care Tax Hike, Back Extension of Enhanced Premium Tax Credits

Survey Finds Voters Across Top Battleground States, Including Swing and Trump Voters, Favor Preserving Enhanced Premium Tax Credits to Prevent Tax Hike on Hardworking Americans

WASHINGTON, Oct. 22, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Americans for a Balanced Budget released the findings of a national survey of 1,000 likely voters on October 22, 2025. Conducted by pollster John McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates across key battleground districts, the poll highlights preserving the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits will be a critical factor in whether Republicans maintain their majority control in Congress.

Amid the ongoing government shutdown, a majority of voters (53% to 36%) say Democrats should compromise with Republicans to reopen the government so Congress can work together to extend the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits and prevent a health care tax hike on hardworking Americans and small business owners. The results underscore that allowing the credits to expire would hand Democrats a major campaign issue to leverage against vulnerable Republicans in the 2026 midterms.

"This poll makes it clear: preserving the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits isn't just good policy, it's smart politics for Republicans looking to defend their majority in the 2026 midterms," said Dee Stewart, President of Americans for a Balanced Budget. "Hardworking Americans are counting on Congress to prevent what would amount to a massive health care tax hike on millions of families. Extending these credits is about protecting working Americans and small business owners who pay their own way and keeping coverage affordable."

Today's results build on a June 2025 survey from McLaughlin & Associates, which found overwhelming support for candidates who support extension. This sentiment has been echoed by other prominent conservative leaders such as Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).

"Across party lines, voters agree extending the tax credits is the common-sense choice to keep health care costs down and protect middle class families from higher taxes," said John McLaughlin, CEO of McLaughlin & Associates. "With an overwhelming majority of voters supporting the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits, this is a unifying issue that cuts across partisan lines and resonates heading into the next election."

Key findings from the survey include:

Republicans Risk Their Majority if They Fail to Act

• A majority of voters (51% to 36%) say they would be MORE likely to vote for "a Democratic candidate who fought to preserve and protect the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits" rather than "a Republican candidate who refused to protect the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits and wanted them to expire."

• Among Independents, that margin of those who would vote for a Democratic candidate widens to 53% to 24%. Among Independent women, the gap is overwhelming (66% to 13%).

Supporting Health Care Tax Credits and the Individual Marketplace Is a Winning Message

• The Enhanced Premium Tax Credits are SUPPORTED by 72% of voters, including 72% of Independents who will cast deciding votes in toss-up Congressional Districts in November 2026.

• Support of the Individual Health Insurance Marketplace is also strong, with nearly three-quarters of respondents SUPPORTING a marketplace that allows individuals and families to compare and purchase health plans.

Voters See Health Care Tax Credits As Critical Support For Hardworking Americans – Not Handouts

• By a greater than 2 to 1 margin (55% to 23%), the majority of voters consider the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits to be tax credits that lower the cost of health care rather than subsidies that increase government spending.

• 55% of voters say they would be LESS likely to vote for a candidate who wanted the credits to expire, resulting in a health care tax hike on working families.

• 57% say they would be LESS likely to support a candidate whose inaction caused premiums to skyrocket by an average of 75%, and 56% say they would be less likely to back a candidate whose inaction caused 4 million Americans to lose coverage.

Shutdown Fatigue: Voters Want Congress to Act

• While voters assign slightly more blame to Democrats (39%) than Republicans (36%) for the shutdown, nearly a quarter (23%) blame both parties, reflecting fatigue with political gridlock and the need for Washington to come together and address important issues facing the American people such as rising premiums and access to coverage.

• The majority of respondents (53% to 36%) also believe "Democrats should compromise with Republicans to reopen the government so Congress can work together to preserve the Enhanced Premium Healthcare Tax Credits and prevent a healthcare tax hike on hardworking Americans and small businesses."

McLaughlin and Associates conducted the survey, commissioned by Americans for a Balanced Budget, among 1,000 likely voters between October 15-19, 2025. The survey included a mix of landline phone, mobile phone, and text-to-web interviews. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. The accuracy of the sample of 1,000 likely voters is within +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.

Read the full McLaughlin & Associates memo on results from the survey HERE.

Read the full McLaughlin & Associates memo on results from their previous survey on extending Enhanced Premium Tax Credits HERE.

Read more on the implications of a looming massive health care tax hike on millions of hardworking Americans, families and small business owners, HERE.

About Americans for a Balanced Budget

Americans for a Balanced Budget (ABB) has been an active, leading voice for fiscal sanity in government for more than a quarter century. In the modern era, ABB has broadened its role to include making the ongoing case for common sense, conservative policies to everyday Americans.

Through its advocacy programs and educational efforts, ABB is engaging civic-minded, thoughtful Americans, reaching them by instilling rationality, wisdom, and sanity into the broader public debate. ABB is applying time-tested principles for a more prosperous, secure America.

SOURCE Americans for a Balanced Budget