The scope of this report is the analysis and forecast of energy carriers in Kenya. The report focuses on the energy generated from all sources in the country, both primary and secondary. It quantifies useful energy available for consumption now (2020) and forecast to 2050.
Kenya's energy journey from a primary biomass-based country through geothermal, hydro and solar and wind are all analysed in detail and forecasted over the period. Government's Kenya Vision 2030 aspires to transform Kenya from low income status into a middle-income country and a key element to this vision is a lower cost of power reaching more broadly across the population. The Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa is forecasting an additional 140,000 MW of power over for the East African Power Pool. Kenya's share of this is 13,852 MW of planned peak demand by 2038 or an increase of just over 11,000 MW over this 20-year period.
Kenya is moving towards procuring more of its additional power from wind and solar. In recent years the substantial growth in hydro, wind and solar energy led to a decline in generation from oil, gas and coal sources and electricity imports. The report analyses the expected progress of renewable energy over the forecasted period.
The scope outlook is from 2020 to 2050 integrating all end user energy carrier generation outputs into a coherent energy mix to meet the needs of an increasingly urbanized population and growing economy.
Corona Virus Pandemic
The report includes an analysis of the effects of the virus on the Kenyan economy and the sectors most impacted by the pandemic.
The principal methodology used in the report is applying econometric analysis modelling to an extensive database of global and Kenyan time series that include energy, economic, demographic and social indicators.
A global economic outlook and forecast to 2050 is compiled from seven regions which are benchmarked against forecasts from international bodies such as the OECD. The model allows for input by the user who can alter the forecasts to predict different scenarios. The next section deals with the global oil market and specifically with the international oil price. Here again the user may alter the forecasted oil consumption levels in each of the seven regions. The oil price is forecast based on an ordinary least squares econometric model as outlined in the report.
An extensive, national accounts forecast table is part of the model (which also allows us-er input) and is benchmarked to forecasts made by international organizations e.g. OECD and EIA).
The energy carriers for Kenya are individually analysed. In the case of oil, a virtual refinery is modeled with the base being the forecasted oil price. A refining margin is added and through the exchange rate petrol and diesel pump prices for Kenya is arrived at. The price for petrol is forecast to 2050 as part of the petrol econometric model used together with real household consumption expenditure to arrive at petrol volumes. Diesel volumes are forecast using real Gross Domestic Fixed Investment, the Kenyan Urban Population and Kenya Petrol sales.
Electricity generation is the sum of the electricity produced by wind, solar, hydro, biomass, coal, oil, gas and geothermal energy carriers. In the report all these sources of energy are forecasted using econometric models and other modelling techniques.