OysterLink: 2025 Shutdown Could Hit Restaurants Harder Than 2018

With slower job growth, higher quit rates, and uneven recovery across states, the restaurant industry may struggle to withstand another federal shutdown in 2025.

MIAMI, Nov. 13, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- As the U.S. government shutdown ends, OysterLink warns that the current economic climate could make 2025's shutdown more damaging to the industry than the one in 2018.

In 2018, the restaurant sector was enjoying robust growth. Restaurants had just added 41,000 jobs in December, giving the industry a financial cushion to weather temporary disruptions.

By contrast, 2025 is starting from a position of weakness. Restaurant staffing has been essentially flat during the first eight months of the year, with fewer than 13,000 jobs added year-to-date, leaving operators with little room to absorb sudden drops in customer spending.

About the Data: The analysis uses Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data from 2018, 2019, and 2025, focusing on eating and drinking establishments, which employ roughly 80% of the U.S. restaurant workforce.

Employment trends signal vulnerability

According to preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics data, eating and drinking places added 11,000 jobs in August 2025, following a two-month period of essentially flat payrolls. Despite the slowdown, the overall demand for labor remained strong, with the hospitality sector hiring more than 800,000 workers over the last four months.

However, this growth has been offset by a higher-than-average number of employees leaving their jobs. Between May and July, approximately 715,000 hospitality workers quit, 150,000 more than the average over the prior 12 months. As a result, the restaurant workforce remains fragile.

Segment and regional disparities

The limited-service restaurant segment, including coffee shops, quick-service, and fast casual outlets, has outpaced pre-pandemic employment levels, with snack and beverage bars 22% above February 2020 figures and quick-service restaurants 2.3% above. Full-service restaurants, however, remain 222,000 jobs (or 4%) below pre-pandemic staffing.

At the state level, employment recovery has been uneven. Mountain states such as Idaho (+17%), Utah (+15%), and Nevada (+13%) have exceeded pre-pandemic staffing, while Massachusetts, West Virginia, and Maryland remain 4%–5% below their pre-pandemic levels.

What the Shutdown Meant for Restaurants

The prolonged government shutdown has already taken a toll on restaurants across the country:

• Reduced consumer spending: With federal workers temporarily out of work and confidence shaken, restaurants in areas with many government employees saw noticeable drops in traffic.
• Staffing challenges: Disruptions in hiring systems and verification services made it even harder for operators to fill open roles.
• Financial strain: Many restaurants without staffing or financial buffers were forced to cut hours, delay growth plans, or consider temporary layoffs.

"Unlike 2018, the industry had no cushion to absorb shocks. The slowdown in spending quickly pushed restaurants to make difficult operational decisions," said Milos Eric, co-founder and general manager at OysterLink.

Despite these setbacks, the restaurant sector remains above pre-pandemic employment levels — proof of its resilience. But the 2025 shutdown has shown just how fragile that recovery still is.

About OysterLink

OysterLink is a job platform for restaurant and hospitality professionals with over 400,000 monthly visitors. OysterLink connects talent with opportunities across the U.S., including the top-paying part-time bartender jobs in Miami and part-time baker jobs in Miami.          

The platform also offers trend reports, expert insights, and interviews with leaders in hospitality. To explore more data-driven insights or post a job that works for today's talent, visit www.oysterlink.com.      

Media Contact      

Ana Demidova      
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SOURCE OysterLink