project44 2025 Tariff Report Shows U.S.-China Trade Down 28-38% as Southeast Asia Gains Share
Late-year export improvement offers potential early signal, though imports remain depressed
CHICAGO, Jan. 13, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- project44 today released its 2025 tariff report, providing a comprehensive look at how 2025's tariff policies reshaped global trade flows. In 2025, U.S. imports from China fell 28% year-over-year, while exports to China dropped 38%, marking one of the sharpest bilateral trade contractions in recent history. Southeast Asian countries captured significant sourcing share throughout the year, with Indonesia and Thailand each posting double-digit import growth to the U.S.
While U.S. imports from China remained depressed through year-end, exports to China showed signs of potential stabilization in the final weeks of 2025. U.S. exports to China, which trended 38% lower year-to-date, improved sharply in the fourth quarter. November's decline narrowed to 23% year-over-year, the smallest decrease since tariffs took effect, before December delivered a 13% increase, marking the first positive month for U.S. exports to China in 2025.
Key findings:
- U.S.-China trade contracted sharply in 2025: Imports from China fell 28% and exports to China dropped 38% for the full year.
- Exports show late-year improvement: U.S. exports to China rose 13% year-over-year in December after narrowing to -23% in November, marking the first positive month since April tariff implementation.
- Imports from China remain depressed: U.S. imports from China trended 34% lower through December with no signs of recovery.
- Southeast Asia captures China sourcing share: Imports from Indonesia increased 34% and Thailand rose 28% for full-year 2025.
- Blank sailings normalize from April peak: Total blank sailings fell to 62 in December from 131 in April (-53%), signaling carrier capacity has adjusted to lower trade volumes.
China's growing trade surplus indicates the country is expanding commercial relationships beyond the U.S. even as bilateral trade contracts. Among Southeast Asian countries, Indonesia's 34% import growth positions it as a clear beneficiary of sourcing diversification.
The data suggests that global supply chains have adapted to a new tariff-driven baseline rather than operating in a temporary disruption phase, though pending legal challenges to tariff authority could reshape trade dynamics in 2026.
The full January tariff report is available on project44's Supply Chain Insights hub.
About project44
project44 is the Decision Intelligence Platform for the modern supply chain. Its Multi-Agent Orchestration transforms fragmented logistics management into unified intelligence, bringing certainty to global supply chain operations. With intelligent transportation management, end-to-end visibility, yard management and last mile solutions, project44 connects over 1.5 billion shipments annually for over 1,000 leading brands in manufacturing, automotive, retail, life sciences, food & beverage, CPG, and oil, chemical & gas. Learn more at project44.com.
Media Contact:
SOURCE project44
Share this article